저자: 미상 · 외국인
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빌 애크먼의 2024년 포트폴리오(상위 8개 종목)를 소개하며 각 종목 선정 이유를 설명. 로우스 전량 매도(거시 불확실성), 캐나다 퍼시픽 철도·하워드휴즈·힐튼·치폴레·레스토랑브랜즈 등 장기 우량주 논리, 알파벳(구글) AI 가치 과소평가 주장, 유니버설뮤직(약 50억 달러) 보유. 애크먼은 고금리 장기화 시 경기 연착륙 실패(hard landing) 우려, 연준의 조기 금리인하 베팅 언급.
다듬은 글
Bill Ackman has his $16 billion portfolio invested in only eight stocks and today we'll go through each of them to see what stocks ideas we can steal from him moreover we'll see what is the only AI stock that he recommends buying and what he believes that will happen with the US economy in 2024 and we're going to start with his eighth position which he sold heavily during the last quarter this position went from a weight of 14% to less than 3% in only 3 months moreover in their February letter to shareholders Pershinq Square said that they've liquidated their entire position in LOWE's and even if the potential for long-term earnings growth is still there given the uncertainty in the near-term earnings he decided to exit because the volatile macro environment means downside risk for the stock and the macroeconomic environment has been an important topic for Bill Ackman which is known to make large directional bets like he did in 2008 and 2020 when he shorted the stock market and he was proven to be right and now he sees the economy slowing down because of the high interest rates I do think the economy is weakening uh we're seeing you know evidence of that in some of our companies I have some concerns Ackman believes that the more interest rates stay above 5% the higher the chances are of a hard Landing I think there's a a risk of a hard Landing If the Fed doesn't start cut rates you know pretty soon as a result at the end of 2023 Bill Ackman placed one more bet we're betting that the Federal Reserve is going to have to cut rates more quickly than people expect so how does Bill Ackman keep his portfolio safe during these volatile times?
well he invests in really solid companies that's why at number seven with $1.2 billion invested he has Canadian Pacific this is the biggest Railway company in Canada and this one seems like a boring business something that Warren Buffett would probably own but that's exactly what Bill Ackman likes our principles are basically one invest in simple predictable free cash flow generative dominant companies with large barriers to entry that earn high Returns on Capital that have limited exposure to extrinsic risk we can't control strong balance sheets don't need access to capital to survive have excellent management good governance moreover it is really important that Canadian Pacific activates in an oligopolistic industry that has high barriers to entry and if you think about the business it's a business where they're not going to build a new one across the street absent some fairly dramatic changes in technology you can be pretty comfortable that you know goods will be shipped on rail for a very long time to comes however Canadian Pacific has a unique trade it has software like margins with 40% operating margin at the end of 2023 and moreover Canadian Pacific just bought another railway company Kansas City Southern following the acquisition Canadian Pacific now runs the only direct route between Canada and Mexico that is why Bill Ackman believes that the market is underestimating the long-term earnings potential of Canadian Pacific and he believes that the company is led by an exceptional management team next at number six with $1.6 billion invested we have the real estate company Howard Hughes they build large-scale residential developments and in 2023 because of short supply the demand for housing remained robust in spite of the revenue being volatile the company improved its operating margin in the last quarters of 2023 moreover even if Bill Ackman expects some difficulties in the real estate sector he increased his position in 2023 and owns now 38% of the company he also serves as the chairman of the board so it looks like he has plenty of confidence in this company Next at number five with 1.7 billion dollar invested we have a stock that truly reveals how Bill Amman thinks about investing I was asked by a student what's the single best business in the world I said if you could own a royalty on people spending money like Visa or Mastercard it's the greatest business in the world if that ever became a public company you want to buy that company so his fifth position is Hilton the luxury resort chain had good results in 2023 posting a solid net margin Pershing Square sees Hilton well positioned for long-term performance because of its best in class value proposition but the most important aspect about the company's future is what Bill Ackman calls an exceptional management team and while every investor has a different definition for good management here is what Ackman looks at incentives drive all human behavior that certainly applies in the business world so understanding the people and what drives them and what the actual financial and other incentives of a business are very important go back a decade and read everything that management has written about the business and ultimately their track record for doing what they say they're going to do do they under promise and over deliver do they overpromise and under deliver Hilton stock had an incredible run in the recent months and as a result it's the most expensive it has been in the last two years so perhaps on this one you want to wait and buy the dip next at number four with $1.8 billion invested we have restaurant Brands this is a fast food chain that owns Brands like Popeyes or Burger King there are plenty of reasons why Bill Ackman likes the company like royalties from franchise model in conjunction with growing in profits or new units growing really fast but besides all these there's one reason that gives Bill Ackman confidence even in a period of economic volatility in a recession or environment you know historically people don't stop eating out but they might adjust from the sit down restaurant to a fast food environment or place the fast food if you will the quick service restaurants have generally done well in recessionary environments and starting October the stock had a good run as it sits close to its all-time highs but Ackman believes that it is still undervalued relative to its intrinsic value as it trades at only 17 times its next 12 months free cash flows next at number three with $1.9 billion invested is another fast food chain Chipotle I eat on a regular basis at Chipotle I like the food I think it's healthy I think it's good for America I think they got a sustainable mode around their business Ackman believes that chipotle has a long runway for growth because of new units growth of 10% in the US in conjunction with expansion in Europe and the Middle East as a result expected Revenue growth for both 2024 and 2025 is for 14% as a result the market rewarded the stock with a phenomenal 65% return for 2023 that's why the stock became the most expensive it has been in 2 years so perhaps you want to wait for a pullback if you consider buying Chipotle next at number two with two billion dollars invested is the only AI play that Bill Ackman owns and this one gives us even more insight into how Bill Ackman thinks about investing because he's not only looking for companies that are doing well but also for companies that have short-term difficulties that can be solved we look for a company you can buy at a very deep discount to what it's worth and if the discount is a management issue a strategy issue a cost structure issue a hidden asset issue a problem that we can solve and then we work to solve the problem when the big AI showdown between Google and Microsoft started Bill Ackman chose to invest in the loser and our view based on work we had done is that actually Google was sort of neck and neck if not ahead of open AI in terms of their business progress but besides the fact that he sees Google close to Microsoft's open AI he also believes that Google's Core Business is undervalued Google advertising search YouTube franchise is one of the most dominant franchises in the world very difficult to disrupt extremely profitable uh the world is moving from offline advertising to online advertising and he argues that considering Google's growth in Cloud digital advertising and search the AI segment comes free because the stock price does not include any value from Google's AI Investments their advertising franchise more than covered the value of the company and you got whatever they were doing in AI if you will for free Bill started his position in Google at around 15 times price to earnings right now Google trades around 21 times which is lower than its $5 average of 24 times but Bill Ackman still sees incredible growth potential for Google you still think it's probably the cheapest of the big seven companies in terms of price you're paying for the business relative to its current earnings and lastly the biggest investment in Bill Ackman's portfolio with a stake of more than $5 billion is a business that he tried to take public via a SPAC deal but ultimately failed because of regulatory issues and this one is Universal Music for which Bill Ackman's fund bought 10% of the business and this is also just the type of business that Bill Ackman likes he describes Universal as having high quality rapidly growing royalties on greater music consumption and with music being in the early stages of monetization in conjunction with cost savings expected in the future Universal Music offers a good mixture of growth and profitability even if the company only trades on the Amsterdam stock exchange it had a good run recently moreover Bill Ackman argues that given its market position and decades long runway for earnings growth Universal's current stock pricing is a discount to its intrinsic value that was it from me if you feel like you've learned anything of value or you want to see more analysis like this one please hit that like button and subscribe but before you go the YouTube algorithm really believes that you would like this next video
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