저자: OvidiuInvesting진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 드러켄밀러가 2분기에 AI 관련주에 집중 베팅했으며, 이 영상은 그의 포트폴리오 변화와 상위 종목을 분석한다. 드러켄밀러 포트폴리오 조정: 구글 전량 매도(약 4%), AMD 매도(약 3,700만 달러), 엔비디아 비중 20% 확대(약 6,700만 달러 추가). 옵션케어헬스 1억6천만 달러 추가 매수, T-Mobile 9,400만 달러 매수. 신규 매수: GE 약 8,000만 달러(포트폴리오의 약 2%), Builders FirstSource 4,200만 달러, PTC 3,900만 달러. 진행자는 세 종목 모두 2023년 강한 수익률을 기록했다고 설명. 상위 5개 보유: 5위 Lamb Weston(약 2억3,700만 달러, 6.7%, 실적 쇼크 후 17% 하락), 4위 일라이릴리(약 2억5,000만 달러, 약 9%, 2023년 약 50% 상승), 3위 마이크로소프트(약 2억8,000만 달러, 10%, 오픈AI 지분 49% 인수 언급), 2위 쿠팡(약 3억6,300만 달러, 12%, 매입단가 대비 약 50% 하락 상태에서 지속 매수), 1위 엔비디아(4억 달러 이상). 엔비디아 분석: 2023년 약 200% 상승, 1분기 이익 추정치 83% 상향, 실적 대비 밸류에이션은 5월보다 낮다고 진행자는 평가. 진행자는 AI가 닷컴 버블 수준의 구조적 변화라면 최소 2~3년 보유가 필요하다고 주장. 쿠팡 분석: 한국 내 집중 리스크를 지적하면서도, 드러켄밀러는 아시아 성장성 때문에 보유한다고 설명. 드러켄밀러는 향후 5년간 미국보다 아시아가 낫다고 봤다고 인용. 리스크: 진행자는 집중투자의 위험(소수 종목 편중)과 쿠팡의 한국 집중 리스크, 레이턴시 높은 실적 변동성 등을 언급. 출연자 전망: 엔비디아 중기 상승 여력 있음, 마이크로소프트 AI 성공 가능성 높게 평가, 쿠팡 장기 성장 기대.
다듬은 글
the big hedge funds managing billions of dollars just posted their activity for the second quarter and billionaires Stanley Druckenmiller has been really active in this video we'll see what stocks he bought for the first time which positions he completely sold off and what are his favorite AI stocks as he places a massive bet on AI if this is a secular move you just don't have 10 month moves that's not how it works even the Dot-Com bubble lasted two two and a half years moreover we'll see what Druckenmiller believes to be the next Amazon and lastly what are his top 5 Holdings since these combined represent more than 53% of his portfolio or approximately 1.5 billion dollars my idea of risk control is a little non-conventional I like putting all my eggs in one basket and I'm watching the basket very carefully firstly who is Stanley Druckenmiller and why should we care about his top picks he's a billionaire who made most of his money from working as a trader for George Soros he has a surreal track record as it is said to have made more than 30 percent return for 30 years without a single down year and now he manages his own money in duquesne duquesne Druckenmiller is famous for concentrated bets as we'll later see that his top 5 positions make up more than 53% of his portfolio and his top 10 positions make more than 75% personally I like this style of investing as it said that big bets will help you make money and diversification will help you keep it if you really know businesses you probably shouldn't know more than six of them I mean if you can identify six wonderful businesses that is all the diversification you need and you can make a lot of money moreover the greatest investor of all times Warren Buffett has the same approach with half of his portfolio being invested in Apple stock but before we see what Druckenmiller bought let's see what major adjustments he did to his portfolio especially for some of his AI stocks firstly Druckenmiller had four percent of his portfolio in Google which he completely liquidated even after Google's Cloud business finally became profitable it seems like the company's advancement in AI just didn't convince him as a reminder Stanley Druckenmiller is very bullish on AI as he believes it might be really transformative I do believe unlike crypto I think AI is real it could be as transformative as the Internet it's a huge thing selling Google might be because he sees Google losing the AI race to other players like open AI next up Stanley sold mining company Freeport as well as Semiconductor Company AMD honestly the sale of AMD is surprising especially giving the immense potential coming from generative Ai and the reason why he sold AMD might have to do with its main competitor Nvidia you see the selling of AMD generated around 37 million dollars that Druckenmiller used to buy more stock of Nvidia he increased his Nvidia position by 20% by buying around 67 million dollars worth of stock moreover Druckenmiller also increased his position for a few other stocks most notably he increased his stake in healthcare company Option Care Health by 160 million dollars this is an infusion therapy leader with good revenue prospects although the revenue is estimated to only grow around nine percent in 2023 and 2024 option care seems to be generating solid cash flows with a free cash flow margin around 15 in the second quarter next Druckenmiller put 94 million dollars in T-Mobile T-Mobile has been an underperformer in the first half of the year so he sees better days ahead next let's look at the new positions that Druckenmiller opened firstly General Electric is now around two percent of his portfolio or around 80 million dollars this blue chip stock has seen one of the most impressive runs in 2033 with a staggering return of 72 percent the power generation giant just had two solid quarters with revenue growing 14 and 18% secondly Druckenmiller put 42 million dollars into Builders First Source a manufacturer and supplier of building materials this is another blue chip stock that has performed incredibly well during 2023 with a staggering return of 130 percent lastly he invested 39 million dollars into PTC a software company that helps businesses accelerate digital transformation PTC just reignited its growth with 18 year over year revenue growth and has phenomenal margins its gross margin is around 80 percent which is some Andrew Huberman morning routine healthy and moreover the company also generates net profits to sum up it seems like Stanley Druckenmiller chose to open positions in some of the best performing stocks in 2023 he chose companies that usually don't grow very fast but will generate solid free cash flows now let's see what were his top 5 stocks at the end of the quarter his fifth position accounting for 6.7 percent of his portfolio or 237 million dollars is Lamb Western Lamb Western is one of the world's largest producer of french fries seriously this is a top player in everything it has to do with processing potatoes however the stock had a terrible couple of weeks as it dropped 17% following lower than expected earnings no no please no no hopefully he bought Insurance his fourth position is pharmaceuticals giant Elly Lily with around nine percent of his portfolio or 250 million dollars this stock had a beautiful return around 50% for 2023 and moreover it just had a beautiful Gap up following its earnings report for the second quarter so Stanley Druckenmiller just made a lot of money with this one the third position is Microsoft with 10% of his portfolio around 280 million dollars besides its incredible businesses of cloud and business processes Microsoft is shaping up to be a top AI player after acquiring 49% of open AI which is the parent company of GPT since we saw how Bullish Druckenmiller is on AI it's pretty clear that he believes that Microsoft efforts into AI will be successful and he prefers it over Google moreover the stock had a decent year with 33% return the second position with 12% weight and more than 363 million dollars invested is the South Korean Amazon Coupang this is the largest Online Marketplace in South Korea Coupang offers Same Day deliveries fast grocery delivering Coupang Eats a streaming service and payment processing but I want you to notice what's unique about his position the market price is 50% below Druckenmiller's average buying price so he probably lost more than a hundred million dollars on this position alone but in spite of the underperformance he kept adding shares of Coupang almost every quarter since 2021 one of the greatest investors Of All Times believes that Coupang can become the next Amazon and while the company created a great customer focused ecosystem my only worry is regarding its concentration within South Korea with outside operations only in Japan and Taiwan but Druckenmiller kept his fate in Coupang because of Asia's phenomenal growth perspectives the next five years or so Asia looks a lot better to me than the United States because at some point we got to pay back in terms of productivity in terms of higher rates in terms of a lower dollar and now finally the cream of the crop the number one position in Stanley Druckenmiller's portfolio worth more than 400 million dollars is the most beloved AI play of the moment Nvidia Nvidia might be the perfect pick and shovel stock for the AI story The market understood that AI will have a serious contribution in the efficiency of companies and it rewarded Nvidia stock with a phenomenal 200% run for 2023 but what matters most for the Nvidia is to go beyond the AI narrative and have a close look at its earnings and Nvidia's earnings have been nothing short of spectacular in the first quarter of 2023 out of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Nvidia had the biggest upside change in its earnings estimates with a staggering 83% increase in its forecasted earnings as a result the stock had a massive 26% Gap up but what's really shocking is that in spite of the 200% year-to-date return and the massive Gap up the stock is now cheaper on a price to earnings basis than it was in May so even if you're now paying 25% more for the stock you're actually buying it cheaper than it was before the gap up so it looks like in spite of the phenomenal run Nvidia might still have a lot of room to grow and that's exactly what Druckenmiller believes since he anticipates that the stock might still offer good returns in the long run NVDA bottomed in October if this is a secular move if this thing is real you just don't have 10 month moves that's not how it works even the.com bubble lasted two two and a half years for many of the guts of the internet it lasted four years if I'm right on AI and the impact on it I mean it's already making the top coders seven to eight times more productive than they were five months ago if it's as big as I think it is NVIDIA is something we're going to want to own for at least two or three years not for 10 months to sum up it seems like Druckenmiller bough stocks that performed well and that usually generate free cash flows.
he's fully invested in the trend of AI with two out of the top three positions being massive AI plays moreover it's easy to see why he prefers Nvidia over AMD after their phenomenal earnings growth if you want me to make a deep dive on any of these stocks please leave a comment below and I'll analyze it if you feel like you've learned anything of value and you want to see some more analysis like this one please hit the like button and subscribe foreign
Comments 0