저자: HANA · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXL(3배 레버리지 반도체 ETF)은 상장 후 13년간 60% 이상 하락이 6차례 있었고, 이번 하락은 역대 최대 낙폭·최장 기간이라 신고점 회복에 3년 이상 걸릴 수 있다고 설명. 리먼 쇼크 이전 고점 투자 시뮬레이션(SOX 기반 추정)에서는 자산이 98% 이상 줄었고 원금 회복까지 약 11년 9개월이 걸린다고 제시. 다만 하락장 매수 후 회복 시 큰 수익 가능성도 언급하며, 레버리지 투자는 감당 가능한 위험 범위 내에서 해야 한다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Hi, this is HANA. We've started. No Toshiba skin. Today's topic is: What will happen to SOXL if a real crash occurs? I'd like to talk about this topic. As you can see from the thumbnail, if a real crash occurs, you must be prepared for a loss of 98%. If you invested 100,000 yen, it could become 2,000 yen, and if you invested 1,000,000 yen, it could become just 20,000 yen.
Are you all aware of this risk when you invest in SOXL? Whenever I upload a simulation video about SOXL, I almost always get comments like this. That's true, isn't it? There are only charts from the good parts of an economic expansion phase, so simulations using that will only show good results. I wish you would also do a simulation from the time of the Lehman Shock.
Thank you for your comment. Thank you so much to everyone who always watches and comments. Your watching, liking, and commenting are what motivates me to make videos. As for SOXL, as you commented, it is a product that started operations in March 2010 after the Lehman Shock, and from the initial investment Even when displaying the chart, it only goes back to March 2010.
This means that no matter how much backtesting is done, it doesn't include a crash on the scale of the Lehman Shock. However, as you can see from the logarithmic chart in this settings section, there have been several major declines during this period. In the approximately 13 years from 2010 to 2023, there were six points where the market fell by more than 60%.
These coincided with the flash crash, the European debt crisis, the reverse oil shock, the US-China trade friction, the COVID-19 shock, and the decline in 2022. I don't know what this latest decline will be called, or if it will even get a name, but if it were to be named, it might be something like the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
Incidentally, the reverse oil shock and this latest decline also coincided with the start of interest rate hikes. There have been six points in 13 years where the market fell by more than 60% from the recent high, so some people may see this as only six opportunities in 13 years, while others may see an average crash every two years as too scary.
I think everyone has their own way of feeling about it. What do you think? Incidentally, here's a summary of the times when the price fell by more than 60%. This is a compilation of times when the price fell by more than 60% from the recent high to the low, based on closing prices, from March 2010 when soxl was established until the present.
This time, it's number 6, which is the largest drop in the past 13 years. Here's the period from the high to the low. Regarding this decline, it's actually still a long way off before we can definitively say that it has bottomed out, but we've written it down as a hypothesis. As you can see, this time both the percentage decline and the period of the largest decline in history are the longest ever.
In the comments on the previous soxl video, we also received comments from people who bought at the high but were able to hold on during each decline and are now in the black. Even after such a large decline, and still far from reaching the highest point, being in the black already shows that Akashi had strong holding power and continued to buy without fear even during the decline.
In today's far right column, we've compiled the period from the highest point before the decline, through the big crash, to returning to normal levels. The earliest was 9 months. While the slowest recovery period is three years, in the case of the nine-month period, the time it took to hit the bottom was relatively short, sometimes as short as four months or even one month.
In contrast, in the second case, where the decline rate was 72% and the time to the bottom was eight months, it took approximately three years to reach a new high. Considering that this time, with the largest decline rate in history at over 90% and the longest decline period at 10 months, I think there's a good chance it could take more than three years to reach a new high.
However, as mentioned in the comment I shared earlier, even if you bought at the peak, if you also bought during the decline, you've already turned a profit. Also, even if you bought at the peak and left it as is, the fact that past performance shows that the high was reached in just three years is encouraging to me.
However, as mentioned in the comment I shared at the beginning, this doesn't include major crashes like the Lehman Shock, which even non-investors have probably heard of. So, this time, I've run a simulation assuming that SOXL existed before the Lehman Shock, and I'd like to share the results. I calculated what the asset value would have been at its maximum decline if you had invested 1 million yen in SOXL at its peak before the Lehman Shock, and how many years it would have taken to recover your principal.
In reality, the product called SOXL did not exist before the Lehman Shock, so this calculation uses leverage on the SOXL index and takes into account the expense ratio associated with SOXL. Therefore, please consider these calculation results as reference values only. Incidentally, while the SOXL index was previously used as the benchmark for SOXL, the benchmark was changed to the IgE Semiconductor Index on August 25, 2021.
Here are the results. This is the simulation result of investing 1 million yen in a lump sum at its peak before the Lehman Shock. To allow for comparison, I have displayed the results for three types: the regular SOXL index, 2x SOXL (where the daily price movement is doubled), and 3x SOXL (where the daily price movement is tripled, similar to SOXL).
Since SOXL is a product with 3x leverage, please consider the bottom result as SOXL. Also, it seems that an investment trust linked to the movement of the SOX index is being sold by Nise Asset Management Co., Ltd., so although the expense ratio calculated here is different, please consider the top item as that product.
I do n't think there is a product with 2x leverage, but I have calculated it for reference. This shows the day of the biggest decline, which in both cases was November 20, 2008. This column shows the asset value on the day of the biggest decline. Normally, SOX is 309,000 yen, with 2x leverage it is about 80,000 yen, and with 3x leverage it is 16,000 yen.
If the principal is 1 million yen, then it becomes 16,000 yen. So, if SOX had existed before the Lehman Shock and you had invested a lump sum at its peak before the Lehman Shock, your assets would have been more than 98% gone at the time of the biggest decline. However, if you hadn't sold at that point, you would have been in a state of unrealized loss, and this column summarizes the period from the investment date to the recovery of the principal.
With regular SOXL, the principal was recovered on March 20, 2014, which is about 6 years and 8 months from the investment date. With 2x leverage it's about 9 years and 4 months, and with 3x leverage it takes 11 years and 9 months to recover the principal. If you invested 1 million yen in SOXL at its peak before the Lehman Shock, the lowest point your assets would have been 16,000 yen, and it would have taken a whopping 11 years and 9 months to recover the principal.
However, I want to make it clear that even global stock mutual funds and S&P 500 index-linked mutual funds fell by about 50% during the Lehman Shock. In other words, whether it's global stocks or the S&P 500, there's a possibility that your assets could be halved the year after you buy them. With SOXL, there's 3x leverage, so it's natural that the magnitude of the decline will be larger.
On the other hand, conversely, there's also a possibility of getting a large return faster than investing in global stocks or the S&P 500. Risk and return are two sides of the same coin, so if you want a big return, it's inevitable that the risk will also be high. I believe that you should carefully consider what to invest in after accepting that risk, and what to do if a major crash occurs immediately after you buy—whether to cut your losses or buy more during the decline—before investing in leveraged products.
By the way, if we do a simulation of the Lehman Shock, some of you may be wondering what happened during the IT bubble, so let me tell you, this is the result of a simulation where you invested 1 million yen in a lump sum at the peak of the IT bubble. This was verified in a previous video, and the investment targets are the regular Nasdaq 100 Leveraged Nasdaq and 3x Leveraged Nasdaq 100, so the results may be different from 3x leverage on the SOX index, but I think it will be useful as a reference.
With 3x leverage, at the lowest point of the decline, you lose more than 99% of your assets, and you still haven't recovered your principal. In other words, a major crash is usually... When it happens, leveraged investments are difficult to recover from. However, conversely, a downturn presents an opportunity.
This is a compilation of the first time an investment of 1 million yen became 10 times that amount. This is also an analysis of the Nasdaq 100, but if you had invested 1 million yen in a lump sum on January 2, 2009, after the Lehman Shock, with leveraged investments, the result was that 1 million yen became 10 million yen in just 5 years.
In other words, if you buy at a high price and a major crash occurs, recovery is impossible, but the explosive power when you buy during a downturn and the stock price recovers afterward is tremendous. Risk and return are two sides of the same coin, and it is important to invest within the range of risk you can bear.
The content I was just introducing Papapad is explained in detail in a previous video comparing 1x, 2x, and 3x leveraged Nasdaq 100, so if you haven't seen it yet, or if you'd like to take another look, I would be happy if you could check it out via the link in the upper right corner or in the description box.
So that's all for today's content. Thank you for watching until the end. By the way, lastly, another video I created about soxl was featured on the YouTube channel of someone named Mamoru. He had contacted me in advance via comments saying that he would feature it in his video, so I watched it and it was really interesting.
I was so happy to see that he talked about the slides I made in such an interesting and funny way. I ca n't talk that entertainingly, and I really envy people who are good at talking. Thank you very much for this time. Mamoru explained soxl in a very interesting way, so I would like everyone to check it out.
I will put the link in the description box. That's all for today. Thank you for watching until the end. If you found the content of this video helpful in any way, I would be happy if you could hit the like button and subscribe to the channel. Well then, let's continue to do our best as 3rd generation members. This was Hana.
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