저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXL이 연초 대비 60% 이상 하락해 저점 매수 기회일 수 있다고 주장. 2010~2020년 사이 60% 이상 하락 사례 6회를 근거로 제시. 100,000엔 투자 시 1년 후 가치를 과거 사례별로 계산해 보여줌(3~4배 또는 원금 이하). 추가 하락 가능성(최대 30% 이상)도 인정하며 분할 매수 방식을 언급. 영상 말미에 장기 관점 분석 예고.
다듬은 글
Today's topic is flowers. Today's topic is SO Excel, which is down 60% year-to-date. Is it time to buy? I'd like to talk about this topic. First, let's look at the chart of SO Excel for the past year. Many of you may know where it is in this past year, but it is in the lowest price range of the past year.
So, I think that many of you who are watching this channel and hold SO Excel are also paying attention to the sale. Of course, there is still a possibility that it will fall further due to sales and monetary tightening, but even so, it has fallen by more than 60% since the beginning of the year, and has fallen by about 70% from its highest price to its lowest price, so it is still cheap.
Compared to when you bought it near the high price at the beginning of the year, you can buy it for more than 60% cheaper, so I think it's already a big bargain. So, assuming that today is 60% lower than the highest price, let's calculate how much it will be worth in a year based on past price movements if you buy 100,000 yen worth of SO Excel.
By the way, .so xl is not something you can buy at a rate of 100 yen or less like an investment trust, so it is not realistic to invest exactly 100,000 yen. The actual amount will be around that amount anyway, but if you were to invest 100,000 yen, what would happen? I've put the data into Excel. If you are considering investing or thinking about making an additional investment, please take a look at this for reference.
Please note that the impact of exchange rates has not been taken into account. First, let's look at the chart to see how many times in the approximately 12 years from March 2010 to the present, for which data is available, the price has fallen by 60% from the most recent high. Excluding the current decline, the only times I was able to find this were in the following places.
In terms of timing, these were flash crashes, heavy debt crises, reverse oil shocks, and the shocks around the time of the US-China trade dispute. The reverse oil shock also coincided with the time of the previous revision of the US dollar. Including this time, there have been 6 times in 12 years, so it is very rare for the price to fall by more than 60%, and now is a good time to buy at a low price.
As you can see, the initial price movements are not visible in this 12-year chart, so let's take a closer look at each one. By the way, we are looking at prices on a closing price basis. First, the peak was reached on April 26, 2010, and then fell by 60% on August 31, 2010. Second, the peak was reached on February 17, 2011, and then fell by 60% on August 8, 2011.
Third, the peak was reached on June 1, 2015, and then fell by 60% on February 8, 2016. Fourth, the peak was reached on March 12, 2018, and then fell by 60% on August 19, 2010. Finally, the peak was reached on February 13, 2020, and then fell by 60% on March 12, 2020. It has continued to hit new yearly highs.
This time, assuming that you purchased 100,000 yen worth of SOXL when it was down 60%, we have calculated how much that 100,000 yen would be worth after one year. As I mentioned earlier, SOXL is an ETF, and it is realistically possible to purchase exactly 100,000 yen worth of shares. Also, we have not considered the impact of the quantity at the time of purchase or the exchange rate.
Please understand this theme. Now let's look at the results. Here they are. 2 The date on the left is the investment date. This is based on the closing price and shows a decline of more than -610% from the recent high. The principal is 100,000 yen in all cases. Here is the valuation after one year. So, what do you think?
There are times when the principal has tripled or quadrupled in one year, and times when it has fallen below the principal. In the case of number 5, the principal has nearly quintupled in one year, but this was during a period of economic easing and was the result of unprecedented quantitative easing, so it may be harsh to use this as a benchmark.
It has fallen considerably since the beginning of 2022. Although it is currently at its lowest point, it is unclear if this is the bottom. Considering that there is a good chance of a significant drop in May and June due to interest rate hikes, if you were to buy at around $25 now, there is a possibility that you could be below your principal even a year from now, as shown in point 2.
It is probably easier to imagine that this will be the case in the long term. That being said, it is impossible to know where that bottom will be, and it remains true that it is cheap now, so I myself am using a method of investing in installments, and I am prepared to buy if it falls further. So, lastly, let's look at how much you would lose if you bought at the five points I showed you earlier and then it fell further.
Here it is. It shows the valuation at the highest point and the percentage of principal loss at the lowest point. Even if you bought when it fell by more than 60%, it could still fall by more than 30% from there. By the way, this calculation is based on a principal of 100,000 yen, but if you consider 10,000 yen, it would be 1/10th When considering amounts of 200,000 yen and 1,000,000 yen, multiply each by 10 to get an idea of what fits your budget.
Okay, so that concludes today's session. Thank you for watching until the end. This time, we calculated the estimated value after one year. I'd like to take a longer-term perspective as well, so next time, I'd like to examine how long it took to reach the second highest value if you purchased at each of these points, and how long it took to reach five times and ten times the value.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions on this data in the comments section. I will continue to analyze and verify various things, so if you enjoyed this video even a little, I would be very happy if you would hit the like button and subscribe to the channel. Now, let's continue working hard on building our investments. This is Hana.
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