저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 반도체주(필라델피아 반도체지수) 약세 속 3배 레버리지 ETF(SOXL 등)의 매매 위험을 경고. 반도체 시장은 2022년 26.2% 성장 후 올해 9% 수준으로 둔화, 내년 4.6% 전망. 장기 관점에선 유효하나 공급·수요 균형 맞물려 가격 조정(약 25% 하락) 가능성 제기. 레버리지 ETF는 일간 수익률 기준이라 장기 보유에 부적합하며, 개별 종목 중 AMD를 장기 유망 종목으로 언급.
다듬은 글
Doctor, do you think the reason we launched the "US Stock Prescription" program is because there are many people struggling with stock investing? We are here to help resolve those issues. And while we are providing this as a prescription for teachers, I really don't know what to do about this particular case: semiconductors.
Because semiconductors are practically a model, overflowing with dreams and hope, are n't they? They are the food source for South Korea— even kindergarteners knew about them. The problem is that semiconductor stock prices are plummeting. If we talk about them simply as textbook stocks, everyone has a different opinion on the global economic slowdown.
Also, interest rates are rising, adding to the burden on tech stocks. On top of that, to borrow a word from the older generation mentioned earlier, we hear a lot about the hegemonic war between the US and China, the chip activism, and semiconductors. Just hearing about it gives me a headache, but whenever those things come up, it is true that something unsettling keeps emerging.
So, we have heard so much talk about semiconductors falling every day, falling, falling again. Since they are a representative industry and representative stocks, you can essentially say that if semiconductor stocks fall sharply, the entire stock market for that day falls along with them. That is correct.
Because we have Samsung Electronics, the legendary representative player in the Korean stock market, during the summer, many people—even those who hadn't invested in US stocks before—have heard of a specific index. There is one: the Philadelphia Index. It is the semiconductor index. It has fallen by nearly half, or 36%, from its peak, so it is n't very interesting.
If you look at it, all the major semiconductor stocks are included. So, these factors have become the cause of the overall decline in stock prices. To briefly mention the stocks that make up the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index: Texas Instruments, Broadcom, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, etc. We have all likely heard of them at least once, and I imagine many of you own them.
However, I get the feeling that, generally speaking, you are probably stuck with them. We have even covered Nvidia in our previous articles. But if you look at it that way, semiconductors are such a difficult industry, so why can't people let go of investing in them? It is a pivotal industry for South Korea, especially alongside the automotive sector, so that might be a factor.
But there is a problem. There are terms like "materials, parts, equipment, and consumers." When it comes to the semiconductor sector, it is divided into so many categories: there is "Sobujang" (materials, parts, and equipment); there is non-memory semiconductors; there are front-end processes, rear-end processes, foundries, and so on.
I have actually heard of them and studied them, but it is still quite difficult. It is amazing that someone is even speaking this way; it is Korean, but Korean that you cannot understand is truly difficult. But the most certain thing is that industrial classification is also difficult. In particular, the characteristics of each company differ.
Furthermore, the most certain reason why it is difficult is that ordinary consumers do not buy these stocks at regular stores or supermarkets. Therefore, it is bound to be difficult. Of course, there are representative companies like the ones you mentioned, and in Korea, they are indeed the most representative.
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the far most representative ones. That is correct. So, while there may be people who do not invest in stocks at all, most of those who say they hold at least one stock probably own Samsung Electronics domestically, and stocks like Tesla or Nvidia in the US. However, as I mentioned earlier, classifying sectors is extremely difficult, but as we looked at the constituent stocks earlier, they are all familiar names.
That is why this sector is very popular among the so-called "small-time retail investors" who invest in overseas stocks. Right. Especially when stock prices fall slightly rather than rising—you know, when stocks of familiar companies drop—people tend to flock to them. So, I looked into it over the past month to see which stocks Korean investors in the US bought the most, and it was E-Takdae.
The second most popular was the so-called semiconductor index. It is only at this moment, but there is something to note here. It is not just a 1x leveraged ETF, but a 3x leveraged one. At some point, I became fluent in Korean. Even looking at the scale, the 3x leveraged ETF included in the 12 is incredibly popular in Korea, considering it is around November, even when looking at the total balance held.
The problem is, as I mentioned earlier, the semiconductor index has dropped by 30-something percent. But I’m telling you right now, it stings, does n't it? I mean, we said earlier that semiconductor stocks just slid down, right? The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is the same. Butnow, it stings. So, in the case of SO XL, it tracks the performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 3x leverage.
What fell fell even more, and what went up rose relatively higher than the prize money. So, in the case of SO XL, the leveraged ETF side has fallen too much right now. However, SO XL is an inverse ETF that tracks the performance of the market at 3x leverage when it falls. But even so, it is difficult to see big profits with this in a situation where it is rising.
If it falls as it goes up, many people probably don't think it will fall any further. So, there are likely many people who are afraid to invest in this. And it would only be good for the brokerage firm, since they receive commissions. From what I've heard, the only semiconductor ETFs available are leveraged and inverse ones.
There are definitely 300-point forward ETFs available as well; although the companies are slightly different, you've likely heard of them. SOXX is the one managed by the Black Line. That one is a forward 1x leveraged ETF, and SMH is managed by his wife; SMC moves in the exact same way. So, since most ETFs—whether they invest in 25 or 31 key US semiconductor stocks— constituent stocks are almost identical, there are normal forward 1x leveraged ETFs available.
However, due to various factors, there is a tendency in Korea to invest heavily in 3x leveraged ETFs. So, ultimately, while I invest in ETFs with the mindset of seeking stability rather than picking individual stocks, I do n't think these ETFs serve the purpose of stable investment. Then, if we look at why they are so popular relatively speaking, let me show you a chart; I think this chart explains everything.
If you look at the chart, the left side shows people who want to move slowly and generate stable profits—you know, there are a few people in that warehouse there, one or two. What is the right side? It's the cloud. You should view that as exactly the general investment psychology, and you need to utilize this well.
No matter how you describe it in a rosy light, since there are many people like this, it is a structure where the operator makes money when a lot of money flows in and triggers trading. There is conviction—a conviction that it will steadily rise. It provides an opportunity to maximize profits in investment.
It is not a matter of good or bad; they can certainly provide an opportunity. However, the problem is that there is a written statement on all these operational products: leverage is not investment or a concept of accumulating; it is trading. So, it is used for practical purposes when buying or selling in short bursts.
This is slightly different from the long-term idea of accumulating for 5 or 10 years to see the price go up. So, in English, if normal 1x leverage is called "investment," then the 3x leverage I mentioned earlier is what is called " trading." So, while we all call it "stock investment" in Korean, there is a slight distinction between trading and investing in English.
Since it can vary depending on one's style, I am absolutely not saying one is better or the other is wrong. But I think the most important thing here is this: we might expect 3x leverage to rise quickly and significantly, but if you look at this stock... Whether it makes your heart ache or feels bitter, it says " Direxion Daily." I think "Daily" is really important.
It is just one day. What I mean by "short-term" is that it is easy for many people to talk about—that you can hold it long-term. Since it is your spare money, everyone thinks that if it goes up 100%, it will go up 300%. But that is not necessarily the case. Because, as you pointed out precisely, with any 3x leveraged products like this, or inverse ETFs, you absolutely must not just multiply the total by 3.
It is three times the daily fluctuation. So, to put it very simply, let's say we start at 100. The stock price can drop by 10%, right? Then how much is it? It becomes 70. To go back up, even a 40% increase is not enough. If you multiply 70 by 10%, you only get 98. Even if you get 70 when it drops by about 10%, if you want to treat that as 100, it needs to rise by about 14% to get close.
So, you need to understand the daily registration volume. It would be great if anything went up in a straight line continuously. However, there are ups and downs. If the decline is significant, looking at it from 100, it might seem like 100%, but instead of 300%, you might only be able to utilize 150%.
Depending on the timeframe, it drops drastically, but when it rises, it must go up very slowly and much more than it fell to be effective. You should trade on a short basis of a day or two; holding onto it just because you see a price drop is a bad idea. So, while this applies to any ETF, when investing, you should carefully examine the detailed explanations provided by each fund manager—much like insurance policy terms—regarding the size of the assets being applied or the fees.
You clearly saw "Daily" written earlier; I think it is best to study these things thoroughly before investing. Actually, we have been talking too much about how the semiconductor market is bad and declining, but eventually, there will be a moment when it improves, right? How is the industry currently viewing this?
That is correct; semiconductors are viewed as a long-term investment. Of course, this may be just a minority opinion, but within the CT Group, regarding certain semiconductor companies, the stock price is expected to gradually increase by about 25% in the future. It could fall, you know. Because the supply and demand for certain automotive or industrial semiconductors, which have been doing very well, have become quite rational, the prices themselves could be adjusted.
So, if supply and demand match up now, the prices that have risen could fall. It is somewhat unavoidable since these are not general products. From this person's perspective, it suggests a drop of about 25%. However, if it were to fall by 25%—while it would be better if it didn't—from the standpoint of those who are hesitant about the so-called long-term perspective, it could be quite risky.
Rather than offering a good opinion, I have presented a slightly more objective point. There is a global association called WSTS. It is a place that compiles global semiconductor trade statistics. It is a non-profit organization that gathers and compiles statistics from semiconductor companies. The reason they are accurate is that they are the only ones who track and publish monthly global semiconductor shipments.
Therefore, they are quite objective. According to them, the size of the semiconductor market grew by 26.2% last year. This year, however, it is cut in half— page 13, 9%. At the beginning of the year, they spoke of over 16%, but they have shifted slightly to 13.9%. What they are talking about... Next year's market size is projected to be 4.6% compared to this year .
So, the magnitude of the increase in the constant market is significantly large; it is a growth phase. The initial stock price is just this much, and looking ahead to the future, the growth rate is slowing down considerably. So, what is the conclusion? To put it very simply, having gone through the pandemic and the era of scarcity over the past two or three years, we are now moving into an era of sluggish demand.
So, we have discussed the difficulties of the market itself, but there are likely some people whose hands are itching to buy at times like this. Perhaps, as you mentioned regarding the bottom, the semiconductor industry encompasses numerous sectors—as seen earlier with the heels of the materials, parts, and equipment sector— so we can certainly assume that stock prices have fallen too low relatively within that area.
The person discussing this is someone who seems to be quite prepared: Paul Wee-gi. He argues that there is an opportunity to buy at a low point within the semiconductor sector, and he is saying that this is a representative stock worth buying. However, listening to him, it doesn't seem like these are the top-tier stocks that make up the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
So, while there are generally diverse perspectives, the conclusion is that stock prices have been cut in half this year compared to last year. Also, it might drop slightly next year due to the size of the market itself. I am not saying it will definitely fall, but in such a situation, high growth is usually helpful.
You should keep in mind that this might not be the case for you, so I would advise investors to fully consider this when trading. From a long-term perspective, semiconductors seem okay, but we keep hearing talk of a slowdown in growth. So, ultimately, how should we proceed if we want to invest in the semiconductor sector?
If we look at it from a long- term perspective— really, 5 or 10 years—it is sufficient. However, as I mentioned, objective experts are saying that the semiconductor market itself might slow down slightly next year. In that situation, it is not easy to actively pursue the strategy. So, to reiterate, it is doable from a long-term perspective, but when doing so, it seems necessary to select the stocks carefully.
I view leverage somewhat negatively, but there are certainly people who can use it. Since stock prices naturally go up when they fall, trading is certainly possible in that sense, but since the probability is not high, you should consider this a true honor for experts. However, regarding semiconductors, for most things, I [use] ETFs They say it is better to do so, but there is a wide variety of semiconductors.
That is why I find it very comfortable to register only when you have genuine confidence in a good semiconductor stock. So, to summarize, you told me that if you are going to use leverage, you need to study a lot first, and you must be fully aware that this is for trading purposes. You should think carefully about long-term investment.
Also, since the semiconductor sector is so diverse, you should say that individual stocks are better than ETFs. Then, what are the stocks you like that are the most promising and decent? As I showed you earlier, the stock you net bought the most is Intel, which is ranked 7th. Personally, I do not see Intel as the right choice.
Yes, if I were to meet the interviewer personally, I would like to ask why they buy it. Yes, because even just a few years ago, I remember seeing Intel on home shopping channels. They were shopping with flowers, and even with music inside, it was Intel. Ask everyone about games these days. Intel is falling, with a ranking of Intel and AMD, but of course, there is some speculation that Intel might have room due to the recent semiconductor chip act.
However, you shouldn't invest in US stocks based on such materials. The numbers must fall unconditionally, but the numbers are falling. It’s not interior design, it’s AMD. So, looking at the long term, personally, if I were to choose just one semiconductor stock, I would recommend AMD. So, today we have given you a prescription on how to invest in the semiconductor sector.
I am curious about your thoughts as well. I am very curious if there are many people investing in 3x leverage, and if any of our viewers are doing so. I think this video will air on Thursday. The video will be uploaded on Thursday, but the Chuseok holiday starts on Friday, so I would like to extend my greetings and wish you all a happy Chuseok holiday.
I hope all our viewers have a wonderful Chuseok holiday, stay healthy, and make lots of money. Also, it probably won't be uploaded because of the Chuseok holiday, but we are preparing something special—specifically, the topic you have been curious about and which has recently gained high popularity.
We have prepared it for you once again. As always, please look forward to it. The US stock prescriptions available on our Wall Street Wars YouTube channel are uploaded every Monday and Thursday at 6 PM, so please continue to show your interest. Then, we will see you again next week.
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