저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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엔비디아는 경쟁 우려(아마존 등)에도 여전히 최고 기술력을 보유하며, 블랙웰 제품 사이클로 2025년 하반기 성장 기대. 주가는 150달러 이상 목표(12개월), 2025년 EPS 약 4달러대 중반·2026년 5달러 이상 추정. 중국 수출규제(H20)로 중국 매출 둔화는 있으나 영향은 제한적. 아이비덴(ibiden)은 AI 칩 패키지 기판 수요 확대로 긍정적으로 언급됨.
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yet there's a growing skepticism that things have Peak that the rate of growth is slowing that uh that the bang for the buck is lessened and that the competition is increasing especially from Amazon of course we hear this every time I want to unpack these supposed negatives and not not that I know who packed them first Amazon is not going to go into the high-end chip business away from Nvidia it simply needs a regular supply of other chips Nvidia has a shortage because they literally can't find enough manufacturing capacity to meet the demand so Amazon makes of them itself what matters though is that Nvidia welcomes the competition if you can call it that I don't want to I look here's the deal okay Nvidia still has the best technology by far in my view it is no competitors Amazon remains a huge and I am told from both sides happy customer next has AI really Peete I have so much trouble with this Nvidia is rolling out software as part of it stack and I think that many people don't even know that what they have going for I don't think that people know they have software which brings me to fugato this morning we found out about a project fuses sounds and inspires ideas and not only like what shanton and Orion does with Adobe they put ideas out there to inspire to get people thinking fugato as cnbc's own fabulous de josa explains is part of nvidia's moonshots it's an AI idea Factory product it's not a retail thing even as we can all play with it what matters is that periodically Jensen Wong CEO puts out ideas that turn out to be very very big like it's djx operating system that actually began from Nvidia Shield including a shield TV as usual it's a little complicated to explain but Jensen put fugato out to get everyone thinking and no more than that no more there's a lot of Nvidia that's simply a big thing the sort of thing that good companies used to do all the time but if they're costly and expensive they don't get done anymore I actually love these kinds of analyses they don't depend on the FED they don't they they don't have anything to do with washing the beige book whatever with the possible exception from possible mod China it's just just the usual blocking and tackling that these companies keep giving you that I love so much here's the bottom line don't begrudge the mark the mega caps don't begrudge them don't spoof them don't even attack them just by bye byy buy them at the core of this seismic AI Buzz stands ibiden Co a revered supplier for none other than Nvidia Corp an archetype in the world of cuttingedge technology development in the words of CEO Koji kawashima The Narrative of unparalleled demand unfolds with such drama and Intrigue that every available morsel of stock is clamored for eagerly by Tech Giants spanning the four corners of our digital world as iidon courageously embarks on a remarkably ambitious journey to dramatically amplify its production capacity it's Paramount to maintain a Vigilant Gaze on industry Titans such as Intel Corporation Advanced Micro Devices Incorporated and Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing Company all cherishing their positions as prestigious clientele under iban's esteemed belt this unfolding narrative promises a whirlwind of both challenges and triumphs yet the question remains what underlying Mysteries lie beneath the gleaming surface of this escalating Market phenomenon welcome back everyone to invest docy um we have this transition to Blackwell and so you're product copper which still driving the majority of revenues is starting to slow down as you would expect to and there's a lot of enthusiasm now for custom silic or as6 as you've seen with broadcom and marel I think those things are weighing on the stock I still think when you think about 2025 and AI the story is Blackwell the product cycle that IND India has I think they're going to have a huge second half of the year and I think we do have these transitional issues as we're moving there but I think the stock is very attractive at this level uh I'm not going to say absolute bottom because it's volatile but you know as very attractive at this level I think you're you're trading at much lower multiple than some of the AIP peers and I really believe that they actually gain share versus custom silicon in 2025 I'm very excited for this custom silic Trend but I still think Nvidia can gain share relative to that in 2025 and has a very strong product cycle um you know we think the stock trades well north of 150 uh as we sort of move into that back half in the dynamic and often unpredictable Arena of the stock market opportunity frequently emerges cloaked in the rich Robes of change and IID and Co has become an Adept player in this Sumptuous tapestry as the eyes of the world remain firmly fixed on this intriguing Saga iidon is resolutely broadening its production capabilities responding with Adept agility to the overwhelming demand for AI chip package substrates drawing parallels to a grand strategic chess game iidon isn't simply participating it's orchestrating every calculated move with Relentless Precision with a new substrate Factory now ascending in gefu Japan combined with their audacious plans to achieve a 50% operational capacity by March 2026 the stakes have undeniably never been higher it's vividly akin to witnessing a captivating Thriller unfold where technology is pitted head-to-head against the Relentless March of tim 15 end of the year meaning if if if we do the holidays again together Joseph that uh we're at 150 then or 150 6 months out no sorry 12 months out yeah we're we're uh our forecast our our price targets are high 150s I think uh at 12 months out at 15 what kind of multiple what kind of multiple are you you putting on that 12 months out relative and how would you compare that to the to maybe the whatever you think the best comps are at this moment yeah I think we have a mid four number in 2025 we think North of5 dolls in 2026 I think those numbers are very conservative and we've seen the stock in the low3s kind of multiple range when there's periods of strong growth ahead of us and I think we have that uh the per are now trading kind of more like high 30s uh when you look at the you know where the Broms and Marvels are trading on our estimates so I think that's that's a very reasonable multiple now they have high margins and they're again they have these transitional issues that you're wrestling with all of that can continue to weigh on the stock we may continue to hear some data points about the the older Products Manufacturing starting to slow down but but blacko is really robust and the demand they have uh is is very strong amidst such Skyhigh aspirations analyst Hideki yasuda from Toyo Securities offers reassuring words depicting Ian's steadfast position against the burgeoning tide of competitors rising from Taiwan meanwhile the growing and diverse chorus of Industry pundits veers elegantly between optimism and cautious pragmatism advantest Doug LEF fever lends a word of caution about a potential shortfall in AI spending alluding intricately to the cyclical disruptions that might Ripple across the intricate semiconductor supply chain in Stark cont contrast broadcom's Visionary CEO Hawk tan paints a more jubilant picture envisioning a remarkable decade long cresendo for AI chips fueled by colossal investments from Tech behemoths like alphabet Inc and meta platforms Inc this isn't merely Market chatter it's an intricately woven tapestry composed of both risks and ripe opportunities the compelling Narrative of ibiden is ultimately one of resilience and foresight as it skillfully navigates these shifting Tides with pinpoint precision and Nimble agility're already quite Limited in terms of what they can do in China they have a product called H20 uh which meets the US export control thresholds uh they've done you know pretty reasonable volume of that product but I think we're going to start to see that tail off just because those export control thresholds are so far below the state-of-the-art of what Blackwell is going to be able to do that we're just going to see that slow down regardless so I think that you're insulated from the Chinese market I don't think there's a lot of expectations there I think what you'll see is that a lot of the AI Hardware will just be installed outside of China and you know to the extent that Chinese companies are are doing a that probably do that in locations outside of China so I don't think the tariffs will have a lot of direct impact I think uh you know Nvidia would like to serve those markets and would like to keep uh Chinese incumbent Solutions or internal solutions from um encroaching on their their Turf but you know they're they have the export control threshold and that's what they're living with and I think that will be a little bit of a headwind next year but it it Tails by comparison the unfolding Narrative of iidon isn't just another tale emerging from the intricate corridors of the stock market it is in essence a beacon beckoning astute investors to cast the gaze and take thoughtful note in the complex Labyrinth of AI developments ibiden presents itself appealingly with an accelerating production capacity that's been designed to Stave off potential shortages and capitalize efficiently on upward and promising Trends despite the cautious forecasts seeping through certain sectors a thriving partnership with influential Tech Juggernauts and strategic expansions firmly keep ibiden positioned as an indomitable presence within this Dynamic and ever evolving Marketplace industry experts examining forecasts with Discerning eyes aren't merely optimistic they are brimming with confident anticipation about the sustainable growth trajectory looming for AI linked Stocks underpinned powerfully by Relentless Innovation and Adept adaptation so what do you think is this the pivotal moment to Rally behind a stock that's shaping a future integral to the Grand Odyssey of technological Evolution share your insi
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