저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
엘-에리언은 파월 의장이 트럼프 정부의 정치적 공격이 연준 전체로 확산되는 것을 막기 위해 임기 전 사임해야 한다고 주장한다. 최선의 해법은 아니지만 회복 가능한 실수라는 '차선책(second best)' 논리다. 교체 후보 중 신뢰도 높은 인물이 여럿 거론되며, 사임 발표 후 몇 달간 파월은 정책 지침 면에서 '레임덕' 상태가 될 것이라고 봤다. 금리·시장 방향에 대한 구체적 수치 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
In a day of unusual developments, one of the world's top economists is now saying the chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Pal, should step down. Muhammad Alaran has called for Jerome Pal's resignation. It was a post on X this morning. He said the White House criticism of the chairman is beginning to include other officials and the Fed's mission itself.
Muhammad argues that Pal's resignation is necessary to protect the central bank's independence. He's currently on a train, so he's joining Creswine's business on the phone. Muhammad, thank you very much for joining and obviously if we lose the connection, uh we completely understand. Uh it's it's made huge waves this announcement or this decision of yours to say that Jerome Pal should resign.
Your critics are saying no, no, no. Muhammad says he's giving he should give in if he gives into a bully if he resigns. So why do you think the chair should go? Now look, I think Richard, my critics and I share the vital importance of central bank independence. Where we differ is how do you protect central bank independence?
There's one view which is chair pal will stay in office till May that regardless of whether that attracts even more political attacks and there's another view which is chair pal would step down in order to try to diffuse a very tense and increasingly dangerous situation for the fed. I worry that if Fed ch the chair pal stays in position, we will see the attacks not on him personally but expand to include more and more of the Fed's operations and ultimately that will undermine central bank independence.
It's the true definition of the dilemma. There's no good outcome here and I know you're saying that first best is long since gone. But Alan Blinder and others are saying if he does go because of this then they've given into the bully tactics of Donald Trump. Now obviously you're aware of that but you're obviously saying on the balance of evil or balance of bad or balance of good it's better that way.
Yes. So when you're far away from the first best, and we are, we'd all like to be in the first best whereby chairp finishes his term and the Fed is not attacked politically, but that's not the case. The Fed is being attacked and will continue to be attacked as long as he's there. So when you're far away from the first, whatever you do has drawbacks.
So the question is, what is the recoverable mistake? That's that's the real question. and allowing every aspect of the Fed to be attacked politically is a non-reoverable mistake. Um the other one is not present the notion of the Fed chair resigning but it's a recoverable mistake. So that's the world of the second best and unfortunately we are deep into the world of the second best.
You obviously thought very long and hard before you wrote that because if you just look at the ferora of you know everybody saying and Arian says pal should go for the greater good of the Fed. Um, and you must have you must have realized this was going to to be picked up by ourselves and others. Oh, I knew and that's why I said up front, I know that this is not the consensus view.
I know that that's not a popular view and certainly the commentary reflects that. But if you deeply think about it and if you are totally committed to the importance of central bank independence, which I am, it's hard to come to a different conclusion if the first press is not available. I fear that a lot of critics believe in the first best and I just don't see it.
Richard, do you see the replacements the names out there for the replacement be it next week or next May? Uh you you you're quite sanguin about them. You you don't believe it's just going to be a rollover. Well, first of all, it's not going to be next May. What's going to happen is the the minute the replacement is announced, and that's going to be the next few months.
Then Chev becomes a lame duck in terms of forward policy guidance. So basically you're talking about a few months. There's no one out there that thinks will be reappointed in May. So you're talking about the differences of a few months as to replacements. Yes. quite a few of the names on the short list that that is circulating of people that I believe are credible and that would defend the integrity of the central bank but would not come with the baggage that chair has in terms of policy mistakes and other elements.
Uh Muhammad, thank you sir. The broadcasting gods were with us. We got a good interview out of you on a train uh which is which is an achievement in itself. Thank you for joining us and putting that in perspective.
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