저자: AnthonyPompliano · 외국인
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첫째 결론: 비트코인이 금보다 항상 낫다는 주장이며, 피터 쉬프는 비트코인을 가치 없는 자산으로 보고 금을 옹호한다. [비트코인 채굴주] 포플리아노는 채굴주가 현금흐름이 있다고 보지만, 쉬프는 비트코인 가격이 폭락하면 채굴 원가가 판매가를 넘어 주식 가치가 없어진다고 반박한다. [비트코인 매수 의향] 쉬프는 비트코인을 사지 않겠다고 밝히며, 가격이 1달러 근처까지 떨어지면 고려할 수 있다는 식으로 조롱조로 답한다. 포플리아노는 쉬프에게 복권 개념으로라도 사보라고 권한다. [금 가격 전망] 쉬프는 금이 500달러로 떨어지면 더 살 것이라고 말하며, 금은 보석·전자제품 등 실물 수요가 있어 가격 하락 시 수요가 늘어난다고 주장한다. [가치 논쟁] 쉬프는 비트코인은 배당, 임대료, 사용처가 없어 적정가치를 측정할 기준이 없다고 본다. 포플리아노는 비트코인이 금을 대체하는 디지털 준비통화가 될 것이라고 주장한다. [수요와 공급] 쉬프는 자산 가격은 수요에 따라 움직이며 비트코인도 예외가 아니라고 말한다. 포플리아노는 비트코인 대체 가능 코인이 1만 개 이상이라 차별성이 없다는 지적에도 비트코인의 희소성(2100만 개 상한)을 강조한다. [리스크·조건] 쉬프는 비트코인이 1만 달러, 5천 달러로 떨어져도 생각을 바꾸지 않겠다는 입장을 보이며, 포플리아노는 비트코인이 1만 달러 선까지 조정될 수 있다는 가능성을 인정한다. [출연자 전망] 포플리아노는 비트코인이 금을 대체할 가능성이 높다고 보며, 쉬프는 이를 0%에 가깝다고 본다. 이 영상 기준 비트코인 가격은 약 3.3~3.5만 달러 수준으로 언급된다.
다듬은 글
so when you start to think about bitcoin versus gold would you ever consider i know you're not a fan of bitcoin we can get to why but would you buy the bitcoin uh mining stocks because there's cash flow no why wait why first of all it's cash flowing mining stocks first of all let's like like look they don't mind anything what are you talking about equipment there they solve math problems but the problem is they use a lot of energy to solve those problems uh but i wouldn't want to buy any of these things because when the price of bitcoin crashes these stocks are worthless because it's going to cost more to mine them than you could get for them so no i mean if i what i would be doing if i was a company i would be selling stock to any fool who's gonna buy it from me i'd be like selling new shares doing secondaries you know just trying to dump all it out there but i don't have any shares what would it take for you to buy bitcoin what's the one thing in the economy or any sort of uh financial markets that you would finally say all right enough is enough i won't tell pomp that he was right but i'm gonna go put a little bitcoin away i'm gonna put under the mattress not tell anybody about how much you talk about play money like i would buy like you know a lottery ticket or something but have you done that yet have you have you even speculated a little bit bought even just one just for fun i mean you're about you're almost a billionaire i have not i have bought a couple of lottery tickets in my life well did you buy bitcoin as a lottery ticket yet no i haven't bought any bitcoin all right so you haven't bought anything what would cause you to buy given me people have given me some bitcoin or fractions of a bitcoin but i lost them all as you know yeah so well you didn't lose just over clear you didn't lose unfortunately my son has actually bought some you didn't lose the bitcoin you lost the password which is user error i lost access to them right i know where they are i know but i just can't i just can't get out holding on to the bitcoin is an intelligence test if you lose the password it can't help you right it's like losing the password to your brokerage account sorry i never had the password to lose that was a problem all right what would it take to get you to buy one bitcoin just one bitcoin where you actually took dollars and converted it into bitcoin what would be the thing in the market that you would finally say all right i got to do this well look right now they're what like 33 000 34 000 i never i wouldn't want to waste 34 000 on a bitcoin so um you know i mean i could buy a lot of other things with that money i mean i suppose if the price got cheap enough maybe if it got back i don't know below a buck maybe i could buy it so the question is you know would i want one see this is the thing i mean if you could say all right i've talked to a lot of these bitcoin huddlers and they're like oh yeah i would want to buy so many more really if it really got down that low wouldn't that be a signal i mean is there a point you know for you bob you're asking me when i would buy my bitcoin i mean i don't really know because i i'm not interested in it but the real question is what will it take to get you to sell gold gold to 500 would you buy more if gold went to 500 dollars well sure okay but here's the reason why because gold is an actual commodity is it and and so yes there's a lot of fake gold i i want to talk to you about fake gold i saw on the internet there's all kinds of fake gold in space yeah well so fake gold doesn't do what real gold does i don't know if you you know so but how did you know how old does it have how do you know you have real gold you like are you a chemist are you are you testing it yeah it's not you know that's part of the lies that the bitcoin pumpers tell is that it's hard to know real gold from fake gold well how do you been able to tell real gold from fake gold for thousands of years and they didn't even have any technology they didn't even we it's so much easier to tell the difference between real gold and fake gold now than we were on the gold standard so this is all a bunch of nonsense but the answer your question see since gold is an actual commodity let's say i am a jewelry manufacturer and i i know i got demand to make jewelry which by the way is only is less than 10 of all demand and demand for jewelry has been dropping but go ahead yeah yeah i don't know i don't i don't know who you're dating but anyway so if the price of gold goes down to 500 and i'm a jeweler i'm like whoa i can buy a bunch of gold that i need much cheaper to make these necklaces or these rings or these whatever and so there's going to be more demand right if i'm if i need gold in my computer chips and all of a sudden the price goes down now i can buy more gold for the same money and put them in my chips and save money i'm going to buy more right there's there's a way to rationalize that like if i have a stock i talked earlier about a stock let's say there's a stock that i love at ten dollars a share and it's got a five percent dividend yield at ten dollars a share if the stock drops to five and now i got and now you know or it had a five percent dividend and now it gets cut in half and now the dividend is ten percent i get twice the dividend yield by buying it at half the price whatever value of the assets was there all else being equal i can buy those same assets for half price when it comes to bitcoin i don't get any more when i buy bitcoin at 10 000 than when i buy it at 30 000 yeah i buy i get more bitcoin but i don't get any more dividends because it doesn't pay any dividends i don't get any more rent like i buy real estate on sale and i can't make any more jewelry because i've got more bitcoin because you can't make anything with a bitcoin doesn't matter how many you have i can have all 21 million bitcoins and i can't do anything that i couldn't do with just one doesn't matter how many you have but the more gold you have the more electricity you can conduct the more jewelry you can make whatever all that stuff you could do uh and so there is no way to know that bitcoin is cheap because there's nothing to measure it against so my question to you is you think bitcoin is gonna be the new money it's going to you know replace gold or replace other people it's already replaced gold just somewhere clear it's already replaced gold for people under the age of 35.
nobody owns gold under the age of 35. it hasn't replaced gold in the real world it hasn't replaced gold in jewelry it hasn't that the central banks still own gold as part of a monetary asset they were net sellers in q4 go ahead yes but you believe that all this stuff is going to happen to bitcoin and it all hinges on you know more adoption you know just like we talked about social security being a ponzi scheme it's kind of the same dynamic you're talking you're talking about gold right gold's price only goes up if more people want gold right and that's how it works but people want gold for all the properties that gold has but but it's demand-based the only reason why any asset hold on the only reason why any asset goes up is because it's demand-based if more people don't want apple stock it goes down if more people don't want gold it goes down if more people don't want bitcoin it goes down that's how the markets work it's called supply and demand i'll send you economics one-on-one apple if people want to buy apple products and apple's earning a profit and paying a dividend well people will want to buy the stock now you know obviously in a different environment with higher interest rates they may not be willing to pay as much for apple stock as they're paying now but there will be demand at some price for apple stock that's not the case with bitcoin i mean at gold even if you don't want to buy gold at 1800 you might want to buy it at a thousand because it may be a good deal for what you needed for uh but bitcoin is is not a commodity and it's not an investable asset it doesn't it doesn't have a use and it doesn't throw off an income stream so again to get back to the question i'm asking you you think that bitcoin is going to continue to be adopted and more institutions are going to buy it more people around the world are going to start using it what if that doesn't happen right at some point so let's say bitcoin crashes to to 20 000 or then 10 000 or then 5 000 right is there some point where you like kind of like all right i was wrong it's not catching on the momentum has turned i'm just going to give up on this i'm not going to go down with the ship to zero is there a point where you get out i mean what if unicorns fall from the sky right no no no no listen that's a crazy if it continues bitcoin if it continues bitcoin going to 10 000 is not crazy bitcoin was at 10 000 a year ago to say that bitcoin can't go back to 10 000 again is ridiculous well you're probably my point hold on bitcoin was change your view so bitcoin was 10 000 a year ago and now it's at 35.
and for bitcoin to go from 35 to 10 about 70 percent 75 whatever the number is right yeah i'm sorry that means that we would just return to prices not seen since last year if gold fell 75 it would be numbers from literally 30 years ago no it wouldn't change my mind here's why i wouldn't change my mind ready everything that you say about the economy i think generally you and i agree right we agree that the uh fed's lost their mind they're manipulating markets uh people are getting hurt nobody understands that they should be investing rather than saving all the things that you say about the economy we agree on you and i both also agree that sound money is the solution right we can't have money that can just be printed at will because politicians or other folks decide that we're going to do that or we're going to manipulate those markets so sound money is the solution there's okay well just so we're clear their sound money is the definition of sound money is that it's outside the system and no one can create more of it and so golden first of all let me pump do you know the origin of the word sound money do you know where it comes from it's not a spelling bee but go ahead tell me well so if you take a gold coin and you drop it on a hard surface it makes a sound as opposed to when you drop a piece of paper on a surface it doesn't make a sound so hard money makes a sound when you drop it what's the sound that bitcoin makes when you drop it peter do you hear this this is like blockbuster saying to netflix oh you have no value because when we drop the vhs tape on the table it makes a sound that's ridiculous there's a difference see see when i can watch a video that still has value i watching a video on television i mean on let's do a race all right hold on we're gonna set it here's my challenge to you ready you want to see what has more value you send me a gold bar i'll send you a bitcoin and we'll see who gets there first that's irrelevant because i can first of all i don't have any bitcoin to send you no no you send me the gold bar the goal i mean you could put it in the mail it'll take you seven days to get it too yeah but i would be sending you something real the reason it's so cheap to send bitcoin is because you're sending nothing if i'm gonna send nothing yeah i can send nothing real cheap but come back to this question i'm asking you right at where do you throw in the towel on bitcoin and say no you're wrong get rid of it i mean if it's not ten thousand what if it goes to one thousand if bitcoin is at one thousand if we're doing an interview in the future and bitcoin is one thousand are you gonna say well if you bought it when it was a dollar you still have a thousand times your money peter's the best performing or are you gonna admit you were wrong the the difference is that bitcoin is going to be the global reserve currency because nobody can create more of it and it is already becoming the digital reserve currency of that digital economy and the whole key to this is the reason why you're so worried about price is because gold will never be the global reserve currency ever again it's over we're not going back to a gold standard but there is a much higher likelihood that we transition to a bitcoin reward uh reserves uh status and when that happens the u.s dollar exchange value doesn't matter right it doesn't matter because just one bitcoin equals one bitcoin here here's the problem with the gold thesis is that they printed trillions of dollars every asset in the planet literally beanie babies went up in value and gold didn't go up in value in the last 12 months yeah so gold today is worth less than it was last year because it didn't even keep up with inflation if i was holding gold my gold didn't even keep up with inflation yeah that's because we have a bubble in everything gold is money right so you have a bubble stocks are overpriced real estate is overpriced in terms of money gold is not currency gold is actual money currency was backed by money the first legitimate currency was a receipt for gold gold was the money that backed up the currency that's what gave currency value was that it was backed up by gold now fiat currency is currency backed up by nothing that's like what bitcoin is bitcoin is backed by nothing it has no actual value when you say that they're not you know they there's a limit to how many there's almost 11 000 cryptocurrencies now i mean the supply is growing uh you know like wildflower there is no limit to the number of virtually identical cryptocurrencies that can be created and they keep creating them and you think there's a limit to 21 million bitcoin maybe there is maybe there isn't it doesn't even matter how many bitcoins there are it matters is how many other cryptocurrencies could people buy instead of bitcoin because there's nothing special about bitcoin other than the name and it's not even that special because you got bitcoin cash you got bitcoin gold you got whatever bitcoin this bitcoin that i mean what's the difference there's really there really is no difference when you basically you know take a step back and look at look at what you got the the odds of bitcoin becoming the reserve asset for the world are zero it's never gonna happen that's a fantasy peter i love you i just want to remind you of one fact as your friend because i feel like it's important that you remember this if you had sold your gold and bought bitcoin in the last 12 months or when you first heard about it you would be a billionaire today well there's look if i had put all of my net worth into bitcoin when i first heard about it yeah no not your whole net worth not your whole net worth just you had replaced your gold allocation with bitcoin allocation yes i would i would be a billionaire if i did that when i first heard about it or in the last year or if you did it in the last year you'd probably still be able to that applies but that applies to a lot of people not just me probably applies to you when you first heard about bitcoin if you put all your money in it you'd probably be a billionaire too no i'm not talking about all your money i'm talking about just gold
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