저자: TheContrarian · 외국인
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결론: 진행자는 캐시 우드의 '시장이 버블과 거리가 멀다'는 말에 부분 동의하며, 투자자 심리는 아직 시장 고점을 보여주지 않는다고 본다. 캐시 우드 발언 소개: 2021년 8월 CNBC 인터뷰에서 우드는 시장이 버블과는 거리가 멀고, 비관 심리가 오히려 추가 상승의 근거가 된다고 말했다. 그녀는 나쁜 뉴스와 부정적 심리를 긍정적 신호로 본다고 밝혔다. 시장 현황: 기사 시점에 ARK 혁신 ETF는 주간 -3.8%, 연초 대비 -7.3%로 시장 대비 부진했으나 1년 수익률은 149%였다. 다우는 주간 -1.6%, 연초 +14.2%, 나스닥은 주간 -1.5%, 연초 +13% 이상, S&P500은 주간 -1.2%, 연초 약 +18%였다. 마이클 버리는 ARK 혁신 ETF에 대한 공매도 포지션을 보유 중이라고 언급됐다. 진행자 견해(동의 부분): 투자자들이 여전히 불안해하고 고점을 계속 찾고 있으며, 1990년대 말 닷컴, 1989년 일본, 1929년 버블 때처럼 과도한 자신감과 흥분이 나타나지 않는다고 본다. 시장이 무너지려면 투자자 대부분이 시장에 올라타 있고 대기 현금이 적어야 하는데 지금은 그렇지 않다고 주장한다. 진행자 견해(반대 부분): 현재가 버블이 아니라는 우드의 주장에는 반대하며, 지금은 역사상 가장 큰 버블 중 하나이고 전반적으로 밸류에이션이 과도하다고 본다. 주가가 10~20% 추가 상승할 가능성을 언급하며, 결국 크게 붕괴할 것이라고 예상한다. 리스크 및 조건: 주가가 계속 오르면 투자자 심리가 극단적 낙관으로 바뀔 수 있고, 그 시점이 고점 신호가 될 수 있다. 블랙스완 이벤트 가능성도 언급했다. 면책: 진행자는 투자 조언이 아니라 자신의 의견이라고 밝혔고, 채널의 주제는 군중과 반대로 투자하는 것이라고 소개했다.
다듬은 글
welcome subscribers and everybody back to the contrarian i have a very different video today in that i actually do agree with kathy wood on something major that she has just said and this is only a partial agreement by the way i don't think that we are not in a bubble at all but her statement recently about investor confidence and investor sentiment not being reminiscent of an actual bubble top is very correct in my opinion so i actually do agree with kathy wood as insane as that might sound and i thought that this might never happen because i do disagree with her on a lot of her stances with regards to so-called innovative companies that she buys into a lot um but that being said i do think that she's correct on this statement that she has just made so i'll just take us through the article right now and just look into her statements that she's made okay everybody so we are looking at this article right now it just came out yesterday um arcs kathy wood says stock market couldn't be further away from a bubble here's why wood says she is emboldened by bad news now that sounds like a very contrarian stance to take so right away that i do agree with that there's a growing sense of unease emanating from equity markets in recent trade despite and perhaps because of the dow industrial average and the s p 500 index trading near record heights however star investor kathy wood who runs a suite of popular etfs in investment management says there's no reason to fear that the market is becoming too bubblicious as the arc founder put it i don't think we are in a bubble which is what i think many bears think we are during a thursday interview with cnbc near midday her comments coming amid intensifying worries about a possible shutdown in economic growth as the delta variant of coven 19 gathers momentum creating headwinds for fuller recovery from the pandemic that has gripped the globe for well over a year investors also have been ringing their hands over the prospects of the federal reserve scaling back easy money policies notably the monthly purchases of 120 billion in treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as anxieties grow woods investment funds highlighted by the flagship arc innovation have been one area that has been cited as possibly overvalued and vulnerable to a dramatic swing lower if the market starts to deflate considerably from its current levels michael bury by the way is a short arcs innovative innovation etf so he disagrees with kathy wood apparently arc innovation etf is down 3.8 percent so far this week and has lost seven point three percent in the year to date badly underperforming the broader market and coming after the fund uh and coming after the fund rang up a one-year return of 149 so really rallied a lot last year as you can see by comparison the dow jones industrial average is down 1.6 percent this week but up 14.2 percent this year while the technology laid in nasdaq is off 1.5 on the week but has risen over 13 percent so far in 2021 and the broad market s p 500 is off 1.2 percent in the week to date but boasts a nearly 18 percent gain for 2021.
wood's view on the market however is that investors are acting more sedately and prudently compared with the euphoria that was characteristic in the late 1990s and early 2000s dot com boom in a bubble and i remember the late 90s our strategies would have been cheered on she told the business network you remember the leap frogging of analysts making estimates one higher than the other price targets one higher than the other she said on tech check she also noted that negative sentiment in the market as a contraindication suggesting that growing pessimism may actually fuel further gains rather than inflating a bubble i like bad news she said when i see such negative sentiment out there especially when it comes to valuation and longer time horizons investment time horizons i actually feel a little more comfortable would said so the main takeaway from this that i do agree with is that we are not likely obviously i i don't know the future i'm not some soothsayer i don't have a magic a crystal ball out there but it just doesn't seem that we're at a market top yet simply because for that to be necessary would we would need to see investors being overly confident and overly exuberant and we just do not see that right now in fact we see the exact opposite investors are very nervous they're very scared they're always looking for a top they're they've been calling for a top for the last you know six months if not before then so um you have people out there like harry dent uh who are you know they've just been always saying that there's a top but the last six months especially they've been especially just nervous and saying that there's always been a market top and i just don't see that as being the case because if you look back at past historical bubbles and this is definitely a historical bubble that we're in don't get me wrong um and it will crash at some point in the future but i just don't think we're at the top because if you look at the all of these past historical bubbles whether it be the you know uh late 1990s bubble that kathy wood was just talking about in which investors were extremely exuberant and confident and just bidding up the prices of these emerging tech companies surrounding the internet and dot com era to extreme overvaluations or you look at the japan bubble in 1989 just about 10 years prior to that where japanese companies were seen as the next you know emerging market slash you know market that was expected to grow exponentially from there and then that really crumbled and fell or if you look at the 1929 bubble um that preceded the great depression here in the united states in all those cases you had just extreme investor confidence that this would keep going on that there was some sort of a new paradigm in place that somehow that uh you know the economic system and terms of valuation that the fundamentals on which companies should be valued somehow that these had changed and therefore that the current valuations were justified and we just do not see that yet in the market out there we see a lot of investors uh whether they be institutional and also on the retail side of investing calling for talks in the markets you know calling for a you know fed tightening or a tapering of asset purchases by the fed or just saying that it'll crash under its own weight and i just simply do not see that happening yet because simply put in order for that to happen you would have to have investors being pretty much entirely on board with where the market was and therefore they would have very little money on the sidelines with which to buy as it began crashing it's just really not possible in normal market conditions anyway for the market to crash with investors having so much excess cash on the sidelines it just really isn't it's not there's no precedent for it anyway obviously with a black swan type of event that could happen but that's kind of what covert was it was kind of a mixture of investor exuberance as well but i i really do agree with kathy wood on this i don't think that we're at the market top just yet um however i do disagree with her in the statement that we're not in a bubble at all i do obviously think that we are in a bubble if anything it could go down as the you know most uh overvalued you know metrics that we end up getting to at the peak of the bubble um you know if if stock prices continue to rally which i think is very likely obviously you could get investor sentiment shifting to being extremely optimistic you could in theory get there without stock prices rallying an extreme amount they might rally you know 10 or 20 percent from here but that is still a significant rally nonetheless so i do agree with kathy wood on that one aspect of investor confidence not being there yet but i do disagree with her overall in that i do think we are in a a bubble that will go down in history as probably the the biggest uh bubble just in terms of what it encompasses and encompasses basically everything at this point um so all of that being said uh i'm not trying to um provide any sort of financial advice here i'm not saying that you know this will 100 percent uh continue to rally from here in the markets um i'm just saying that in my opinion investor confidence points to the markets on not being at a top yet so i do agree with kathy wood in that aspect and all that being said i just if you guys want to hear more about what i talk about on this channel which is going against the crowd in order to outperform the markets which is kind of counter-intuitive to most people but if you do want to outperform the markets with investing or just with with anything in life really you have to look where other people are not looking it's just that that is what the majority of the the most successful investors out there are doing and it's just not commonly seen so that is what i talk about on this channel if you want to hear more just consider subscribing and i hope to see you again at some point
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