저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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그랜섬은 과거 대형 버블(1929, 1972, 2000, 2021, 일본 1989)의 패턴을 설명하며 2021년이 버블 붕괴 국면이었다고 봄. 고베타 투기주가 먼저 무너지는 발산 현상이 나타났고, 2024년 초 1월 반등(세금손실 매도 후 반등)은 전형적 현상이나 이후 경기지표 악화로 침체 가능성이 있다고 주장. 대선 사이클상 2023년 10월~2024년 4월 7개월 구간의 강세 경향은 4월 말까지로 끝나므로 이후 불확실성 강조. 과거 버블 이후엔 대개 경기침체 발생.
다듬은 글
first of all the most important principle to me is that the great bubbles are quite different from ordinary bull markets and if you average in the others you get a lot of dilution and you miss the point the great bubbles most of them two and a half Sigma or or three sigma events are 1929 1972 is kind of an honory member on on the cust 2000 the Great Tech bubble a beautiful one the most symmetrical of all is the housing bubble of 06 3 years Up 3 years down perfect and this one let's call it 2021 and of course the mother and father of all bubbles Japan 1989 in both the real estate land market and and the stock market now when you look at the consequences of those great bubbles life is pretty simple they they all get there after a long period of economic growth economic conditions that are perceived at the time as nearly perfect profit margins nearly perfect investor confidence more than perfect absolutely in full screaming Blossom uh where people are buying stocks because they're going up and and forgetting about fundamentals where leverage has has gone up a lot and where people have started to cheat and weasel more than normal because they can Ponzi schemes have taken root here and there uh gal braith said that the size of the bezel had had grown and and it always turns out that way and from those points from those dizzying points in 1929 and March of 2000 and uh late 2020 early 2021 you you could argue there's only one way things can be resolved eventually the easiest thing is to prick the bubble of perfection convince people that things are not going to be perfect forever which they believe at the at the top and that way you nearly always get a fairly rapid unraveling of the most speculative stuff uniquely you get this Divergence uh where the beginning of the bubble the speculative leaders go down sometimes a lot while the Big Blue Chips continue up and people think what are you talking about this isn't a bare Market the S&P is up 20% the S&P uh it was up a lot more than 20% in 1929 but but the low priced index the speculative guys were down 35 to 40% the day before the crash in 1929 and you had nothing like that Divergence the low priced index had been up 85 in 1928 nothing like that Divergence where the high beta stocks are going down forget underperforming uh until you get to 1972 1972 the S&P is up a bit 177% the average Big Board stock is down 177% that symmetry means I can remember it forever and you get nothing like it again until 2000 where as most of you can remember what happens from March of 2000 is the pet.com go practically broke in in a few months and the gross stocks start to peel off from the junior grow stocks month by month working their way up to the cisos by the end of the year after a decent rally at the end the NASDAQ is down 40% the balance of the non-growth market is is not down at all the S&P is down but it's entirely the grow St the balance of the market is probably up in the low double digits and and uh and then again no such Divergence until drum roll 2021 in 2021 I'm told there was a bull market you couldn't tell any growth manager that there was a bull market in 2021 Kathy Woods's portfolio was in whole scale Retreat uh for the second half of the Year down big for the year and uh my own favorite quantumscape my favorite only because I bought it seven years earlier as a startup and it came at 10 in late 2020 like any Spa I hate spars but it was despite me came as a spack went from1 to$ 130 $ 52 billion for a research effort that wasn't going to have a product by its own admission for about four years or so and selling for more than General Motors or Samsung the battery comes in I mean that was in a way the apex of the meme stocks I was too close to it to see it as a meme stock and and it peaked in December 2020 the first one because it was the most crazy and then the meme stocks joined in uh March April started to go down in 2021 the number of new issues peaked in December January 2021 December 2020 and and it rolls through the year but the S&P was up 20 and the grow stocks were hammered uh a classic unique signal and then we've gone through the paces on average looking perfectly normal for the great bubbles so the first thing that happens is you prick the bubble of that Supreme overconfidence it leads the way down and it continued down handsomely the first half 2021 by which time most of the growth leaders were down 40 to 80% and my own quantumscape bottomed late last year at 5.1 down from 130 that was U that's what you expect and incidentally to get ahead of myself um then of course they rallied uh in in the January bounceback of after tax lost selling when you've gone down to 5.1 you've got a lot of tax L selling to do then you have the money you have your Christmas bonuses and you look around for your Bargains and in those years every 10 or 15 years you get a you should expect a terrific January bounce quantumscape went up 120% and Kathy Woods probably went up 40 some of the meme stocks went up 50 to 100 it's what happens it's what happened by the way in in 20 uh in in 2001 following the Great Tech route of 2000 it was a heck of a January rally including on on the second trading day it went up 14% the NASDAQ still it's the biggest one day rally it finished up 12% for January which it almost finished up this year too and then in 2001 despite being up 12% for January it was down 20% for the year so in a nutshell I I was fearful of a rally as a bear I was fearful of a rally in the specs which which we got and that was part of the reason I said after a timeout back to the meat grinder reason number one was a January rally which is classic typical should have been expected and reason number two was the uh presidential cycle neither of these things are talked about by Fe fee charging Enterprises they're too simple-minded and and it doesn't feel like you should charge your fee for it and therefore no one will talk about it and and that's probably why it worked the first account we had at GMO 45 years ago um used both the Jan a January effect and the presidential cycle it had worked for 45 years then and it's worked for the 45 years since then and the main reason is probably that it's so simple minded no one will touch it including GMO basically uh however I'm retired from managing portfolios for 15 years so I'm allowed to wander into these uh zones that other people won't talk about the presidential cycle is just amazing it's one of those few things that you can understand completely you know exactly what's going on what's going on is you want to stimulate the economy to have a beneficial effect running up to the election and so we studied what moves the vote and there's only one thing we could find and it's probably because we were Dopey but we tried very hard the only thing we could find was the state of the labor market in the six-month run up to the election anything that happened before that was deemed irrelevant you you could have a brilliant labor market for years and and then if it was bad in the six-month run up to the election it would cost you vote so how do you get to have the labor market be a little stronger or a lot stronger than average uh and that is you you you have some moral hazard you you get the government and the FED to say encouraging things and and you uh stimulate the economy uh typically uh but you have to do it in advance because the economy is a slow moving beast and and takes a year year and a half year and a quarter to have an effect so it turns out that that that zone is October the 1st of of the second year which this time round was last year until the end of April uh this year in that sweet spot in that 7-month window since 1932 since FD that 7 month has equaled the remaining 41 months of the presidential cycle I am not kidding you check it which means per month that that 7mon window is seven times uh average I remember looking at David rocker who was a great short seller who blew up in Leman through no fault of his own he he was custody in Leman UK and um went went basically went out of business but he had a wonderful record and I once looked at the seven-month window and in his 22 years of brilliant performance he had only made money once in that seven Monon window going short it's like the short sell's graveyard and so I I I treat it with respect and hence timeout so I and I did didn't know there was going to be of course A minor Financial panic and that may change the game every cycle is a bit different but I was counting on the fact that it is generally tough starting last last October the 1st to get the market to go down through the end of April which is in 6 weeks time and then of course all bets are off and and I believe back to the meat grinder there is enormous inertia in in these event and what we've had is we we pricked the extreme optimism for 6 months first half of last year then we had a magnificent rally like we had in 1929 and we had some good rallies in 2000 and and and that's part of the course so we had a good rally and uh and then the difficult phase is always phase three which is the fundamentals waiting for basically earning and fundamentals like unemployment and the GDP growth uh to turn down and they do it with leads and lags which would make your hair fall out it's always different Etc but without getting into too many details which everyone does we all get into too many details the big picture is we have a little handful of these super bubbles every one of them is followed by a recession right that's pretty simple if you get anything really wrong like 1929 it's followed by a depression if you mess around with the financial system you have the terrible happenings of the great financial crash but if you do everything more or less right if the housing market is just fine actually cheap in 2000 the bond market is very cheap in 2000 you're really trying to make life simp you still have a mild recession and you still have the NASDAQ go down 82% you still have the S&P go down 50 even though Greenspan is roaring into help it to cushion the pain to make life friendly lots of moral hazard lowering the rates and still it goes down 50 so the big picture is you always get a recession you always get a terrible wipe out of the spec and and you get a pretty hefty decline in the S&P and uh if you do anything gratuitously worse than that like having a bubble in in more than one asset class or messing up your economic policies or your financial policies you will do worse and things will be bad which we'll get to Japan of course committed the heinous crime of having the greatest bubble in real estate simultaneously to the greatest bubble uh ever 65 times earnings in the stock market uh but the 65 times earnings was not nearly as bad as the as the bubble they had in in real estate where the land under the empress Palace actually really was worth more than the state of California and more than 10 times the square foot rent downtown Tokyo to New York to Manhattan just incredible the biggest bubble I suspect in history including the south sea bubble and and tulips
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