저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 부채 급증과 달러 신뢰 약화로 달러 붕괴 위험이 있으며, 금리는 더 오르고 향후 대형 약세장이 올 것이라 주장. 현재는 달러를 주로 롱하고 있으나 대안 자산은 불확실하다고 말함. 가상화폐는 직접 거래해 수익을 냈지만 통화로서는 회의적이며 정부 디지털화폐가 등장할 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
we should always be concerned about Washington they don't have a clue what they're doing and they prove it day in and day out of course I'm concerned I'm more concerned about the fact that we have this gigantic debt it gets bigger and bigger every day and instead of talking about a temporary ceiling they should be talking about what to do because every country in history that's gotten into this situation has had serious problems eventually and we will too this has never happened in his of the world and it's getting worse not better many countries are starting to look for alternatives to the US dollar partly because of this horrendous Dent problem the alter the obvious alternative would be the Chinese currency but the renm is not convertible not completely convertible yet so you can't have a World's major currency that's not convertible so I don't know I'm but I assure you Magie I'm looking every day because I got to find something because I know that something bad is going to happen in the currency markets in the next 2 or three years this is not a prediction this is just saying you know if we have a collapse of the US dollar that means financial markets everywhere are going to collapse including the American Government Bond Market in the P when the when the previous currencies lost their status there were lots of problems along the way 100 years ago Britain was the number one currency in the world it was no number two but 50 years later and that's not a typo only 50 years later Britain went bankrupt IMF had to bail them out so this has happened before and I hope we all live long enough to see it happen many times I know that the government will step in and buy themselves if and when it happens I also know that interest rates are going to go higher worldwide you know they were recently the lowest they've been in recorded history I'll repeat the lowest in recorded history so interest rates are certainly going to go higher over the foreseeable future well there'll be trouble in all the markets um property markets stock markets Bond markets currency markets everything because you're not old enough to remember but in 1980 or 1979 when we had our last huge inflationary spiral interest rates on short-term government treasury bills interest rates from treasury bills were over 21% that's not a typo over 21% because the situation was out of control and we had to do something we did it killed inflation but it didn't it wasn't a lot of fun for a lot of people we're not able to get to 20 21% now but if we get up to nine or 10 or 13 you pick the number the whole thing starts collapsing no we can't get to 21% again unless it's in a panic because the mark the US market cannot handle it but other markets cannot handle it either demand will certainly fall if you have interest rates going higher and higher and higher uh that's that's a given but I don't know how high they have to go to kill inflation this time around there been staggering amounts of money printing in the last few years nothing is the world has never seen the debt and the spending and the money printing like in the last few years so it something is going to have to be very very ruinous to solve this problem this time I have no idea how high but it's going to a big big big problem before this is over you're going to have financial markets collapse it's been a long time since we had a big big serious bare Market in the world in fact in the US it's been the longest in recorded history so no we're going to have some big problems before this is over but I remind you we've always had periodic bar markets it's not as though this has never happened before historically bare markets when they come they nearly everything nearly all assets go down a lot so if you don't know how to sell shore everybody should learn how to sell shore and or should learn how put their money in cash when I say cash what cash US Dollars you know Euro what cash because you could be ruined if you have your money in the wrong cash so you have to learn about cash and or selling short in order to survive what's com with the bare Market but again this is this is basic freshman economics freshman stock market economics that's how you survive one of the signs that happens at the end of bull market you have all these new investors that suddenly hear about this wonderful new thing called the stock market and it's fun and you can make money and it's easy oh it's easy so they all come pouring in and it's happening now as you probably noticed and it's another sign that we're getting closer to the bare Market I am mainly long the US dollar at the moment because in times of chaos people look for a safe haven and most people think for historic reasons that US dollar is a safe haven it's not for the largest detonation in the history of the world but most people when they think of a safe haven they think of a US dollar I'm there I hope that I'm smart enough if and when the gigantic Panic comes the dollar will have a big rally and I hope I'm smart enough if it happens that way to sell now your next question and you've already asked it is where do you put the money then that's an extremely good question and I don't have an answer at the moment I think what's underappreciated in the US is the the strength of Asia you know Asia has millions of people and most of them are reasonably well financed reasonably well capitalized I mean the largest de nations in the world or in the west unfortunately um and most of the Asian nations are somewhat better situated than we are and unfortunately that's not recognized in the US but again I don't have an answer uh one could put your money in Japan or China or Singapore there are many places where one could put one's money but I can see problems with all of the above and others as well I know we're going to have the largest bare Market the biggest bare Market in my lifetime 2008 we had a big bare Market because of too much debt you look out the window since 2008 the debt everywhere has skyrocketed gigantic increases in debt so I think it's a simple statement that the next bare Market will be the worst in my lifetime because the debt has gone up by such staggering amounts in the past 14 years I hope I'm smart enough to sell short when the time comes I hope I'm smart enough to sell short to write things that's fine that's great wonderful hooray but then what do I do you got to cover those shorts somewhere along the line and then where do you put your money I don't see the US dollar it might be US dollar may have a while longer but I can certainly see after the next collapse more and more people are going to be very skeptical of the US dollar I mean Washington is driving people away from the US dollar by saying you know if we don't like you we'll put sanctions on you many people in the world now even our friends saying wait a minute that's not the way it's supposed to be the reserve currency the international currency is supposed to be neutral anybody can use it for anything but now us if us gets angry at you they say no we won't let you use our money we'll take it away from you and that is making many including our friends look for an alternative so I'm looking for an alternative too I have to have not bought nor sold crypto uh many people have done so so and traded it profitably uh it's been wonderful but as far as a currency concerned I don't and many countries are working on electronic currency crypto currency call it computer money call it what you will and we're going to have it the world's going to have it eventually but I I don't see the US for instance since we're both us I don't see the US when they say okay this is money now I don't see the I don't see say saying but if you want to use that money over there you use that money over there we don't care that's fine with us that's not the way bureaucrats and governments think and work so whatever the currency is going to be it's going to be government currency somewhere if it were today it would be US dollars out of Washington uh but who knows what it'll be in a few years I don't think that the world is going to con convert to bitcoin it will be computer money but it will be government computer money
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