저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 자본주의가 독점화·규제포획으로 기업 이익률은 역사적 고점인 반면 임금은 1975년 이후 정체되었고 투자(capex)는 사상 최저 수준이라고 주장. 미국 주식은 과도하게 비싸고 신흥국·선진국 주식 및 자원(원자재) 분산투자가 유리하다고 언급. 엔화는 장기 저평가로 롱 포지션, 금은 소폭 보유. 자원은 주식과 음의 상관관계로 분산효과가 크다고 설명. 약세장이 내년까지 이어지고 4월 이후 이익률·GDP·고용 압박이 나타날 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
I think American capitalism is in a very sad State it's suffering from Monopoly features fat and happy it's captured too many regulatory organizations institutions including the US government basically so the US economy has run for the benefit of large corporations by and large and and this is reflected in the highest profit margins in this 20-year window that we have ever seen it it's also reflected in a a new form of capitalism which is you want to if you want to make money it's pretty simple you create a mile shortage of your product and you do this by getting on the telephone and lobbying your your competitors and and you end up in jail so a much better way is is to do it by having the culture do it for you and the modern culture is you blame the stockholders the stockholders don't want cap EGS so nobody does cap EGS and capex has dwindled down to a world record low fraction of GDP o over the the last 20 years when this new culture has taken hold so you under capex the whole time and you use that cash flow to buy your stock by and oh it is terrific for profits it is lousy for jobs and wages it is slightly a handicap to growth so GDP growth has definitely gotten a bit slower productivity is actually slowing down a bit as you might expect but profit margins are Heavenly and far better than normal and the justice department has done a rip Vamp Winkle and has gone sound asleep for the duration and hasn't opposed any of the consolidation and the Monopoly features that have been ticking nicely through the system so that's why the profit margins are large shum by the way back in the 1950s he worried the big problem with capitalism was that it was too successful and that he imagined the day when it would become so powerful that it would basically run the government and what worried him then was that it would be a push back from society and and it would become what he worried about it was it would become socialist but there are other other bad things that can happen when you push back but the the fact is that the average worker in the US has not received any increments since 1975 maybe up to 10% maybe nothing uh adjusted for inflation and the Dopey French whose bottoms we have been kicking for this 50-year period are up 150% and um which is pretty remarkable I know we've been kicking their bottoms because I've read business week off and on for 50 years and it's full of articles over the years about eurosclerosis and how the French love their time off and they'll strike if you threaten to have them retire over the age of 50 and nevertheless when they go to work they're productive uh and they average somehow they've had a system where the average worker is up 150 the Dopey Brits are up 60 and the Americans are up zero and yet the GDP has been a little bit less in the US uh over the 50 years uh a little bit more over the last 15 and and not that far behind anyway in the 50 years so what has happened well it is undeniably the case that all of that extra money has flowed upwards to the rich and the average worker has had no benefit and 50 years is a long time to have no increment in an hourly work and in the end it's counterproductive I like to quote Henry Ford you know if I don't pay my workers an honest wage how are they going to buy my car and that's a pretty good idea and um we seem to have forgotten it Grandam Foundation our performance is absolutely vital to us because it governs how much we can pay out as grants as well as everything else and with 75% in VC you better believe our 25% is credit TOA swaps and short Russell short NASDAQ and so on what if you have a more normal portfolio the one component for the long term that is very interesting that I missed um which GMO has a very good fund and that's a resource fund we have a very good five-year record in that one too and both both of them and the climate are slightly ahead of the S&P which has been the guy to be over five years and our our resource fund just attempts to look out at the problems anticipate them and and get ahead but resources have some very interesting features first of all they at 10e Horizons I know that's a long Horizon but they are negatively correlated with the balance of your portfolio when resources are going up the rest there's pressure on you the rest of your portfolio and vice versa now no other group diversifies light resource not even close even you know you pick utilities the the correlation never gets kind of below 75% but this one after 5 years it's down to 25 and at 10 years it's actually very tiny negative correlation brilliant and when inflation occurs not always but almost always it benefits for obvious reasons so it is not only a good diversifier but it's a particularly good one now when you're suddenly after 20 years worried about in inflation again so let me get that plugin what else to own things that are above suspicion for a while here would be a pretty good idea but the main thing is avoid the us because of this rather strange almost inexplicable bias the US is so much more expensive this time round in 2000 everybody was expensive this time round it's the US is expensive and the rest of the world is not particularly expensive so you have a great opportunity really to go into the emerging market and the developed world and and buy some equities and not feel too guilty and GMO in its asset allocation is doing precisely that but don't own short-term us equities if you want to have us equities because you have to then For Heaven's Sake play the long game and do resources and and climate change and and pretty well stay away from everything else deep value by the way is not that bad either so if you wanted to add a third one medium value is is not interesting at all it it it did too well too quickly a deep value of course deep value is in the way of a major meltdown also so you have you have a risk return there they are out of out of line cheap way in the 10% tradeoff against the rest of the market but you could argue that they have pretty high risk too so you want to be a bit careful but there're the three areas if you had to ear us equities I only do currency bets quite long term everyone else does it shortterm if you if you play the really cheap ones like the Yen over the long-term long-term value is not bad in the currency Market it does tend to work and the Yen at 150 pretty weird it traded for years at 110 to the dollar and then it goes to 150 because it had 2% inflation versus R8 well what do you make of that you know it should have been 6% cheaper and it became 30% more expensive so we are long the Yen as part of our package uh long some gold which is a a strange creature at the best of time uh to add to our short positions And I'm more comfortable with resources because they're real and you use them um I've never been that comfortable with gold but we own more now typically we own none but we own a modest position I I I saw a long dreary economic Reckoning and and a bare Market I don't think the bare Market is likely to end until deep into next year and I think the fundamentals because of that long list of the long term is now I I I think could drag out for quite a while and uh particularly with the interruption of the presidential cycle but after April uh we we will probably coincidentally or otherwise we will begin to see pressure on on profit margins and GDP growth and the labor market and everyone will be surprised because they always are um that they were head faked by short-term good news because the economy moves so much more slowly than people understand and and it's one of those many things that somehow people never adjust for
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