저자: CooperAcademy진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 올웨더 포트폴리오는 주식시장 폭락 시 방어력이 뛰어나지만 장기 수익률은 워런 버핏 등에 비해 낮아, 폭락 대비 전략으로 참고할 만하다는 취지의 영상. 올웨더 포트폴리오 개요: 2007년 10월~2009년 3월 미국 주식시장이 약 55% 폭락하는 동안 달리오 포트폴리오는 소폭(수 %p) 하락에 그쳤다고 설명. 역대 최대 낙폭은 6.9%이며 약 6개월 내 회복. 자산 배분: 주식 30%(VTI, 미국 전체 주식시장 ETF, 운용보수 0.03%), 장기 미국채 40%(TLT), 중기 미국채 15%(IEI), 금 7.5%(GLD), 광범위 원자재 7.5%(GSG, 보수 0.8%). 성과 비교: VTI는 2009년 이후 약 300% 수익으로 포트폴리오 내 최고 성과. 2007년 1월 이후 달리오 포트폴리오 총수익 128.23%, 연환산 약 6.82%. 같은 기간 뱅가드 S&P500 연 약 14.7%(최근 10년 기준 언급), 버핏 버크셔 연 약 20.9%(50년 기준)와 대비하며 장기 수익성은 낮다고 평가. 진행자 견해: 달리오 전략은 장기 고수익보다는 폭락 시 안정성과 신뢰할 수 있는 수익에 강점이 있다고 정리. 진행자 본인은 주식 비중을 30%보다 훨씬 높게 두고, 금·현금성 자산·배당주를 헤지 수단으로 활용하는 방식을 선호한다고 밝힘. 언급 종목/자산: 마이크로소프트, 애플, 아마존, 페이스북, 구글, 버크셔해서웨이, J&J, JP모건, 엑슨모빌, 비자 등은 VTI 상위 보유 종목으로 언급. 개별 가격 전망은 없음. 리스크: 과거 데이터 기반 설명이며 채권 비중이 높아 금리 변동 리스크가 있고, 장기 수익률이 시장 대비 낮을 수 있다는 점이 함께 언급됨. 출연자 전망: 주식시장 폭락 가능성을 언급하며 방어적 배분 필요성을 강조, 구체적 시기 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
a lot can happen to a portfolio over periods of time recessions happen market crashes occur and investors can lose a lot of money for example in 2008 and vistas lost over 50% of their money in just a year imagine that one day you think you have all of this money in your portfolio and then you come back one year later from a long holiday and you've lost half of your money well this is why it's so important to ensure that a portfolio is prepared for all market conditions because we never know what will happen in the stock markets so the question is well how do we prepare portfolio for a stock market crash well one of the greatest investors of all time a guy by the name of Ray Dalio has already answered this question a couple of years ago he came out and shared with the world his all-weather portfolio what I want to do with this video is go over their all-weather portfolio for you and look at each individual part to it and see why performs so well in all market conditions but especially and market crashes okay so this graph right here shows you the return that the all-weather portfolio has gotten over time now the interesting thing was that while all stocks were crashing starting October 2007 though all wither portfolio actually started going up remember from October 2007 to March 2009 the overall US stock market crashed 55% Ray Dalio portfolio only went down slightly a couple of percentage points over that same period so while everyone else in the stock market had lost more than half of their money ray Dalio was smiling along because he had prepared his portfolio for a crash you know even if we look at the worst drawdowns that Ray Dalio has ever had with his portfolio they have been pretty minimal the worst-ever has been only six point nine percent and this recovered in just six months anyway I think we can all deal with the six point nine percent drawdown if we can't perhaps we should be thinking about not investing at all so I just want to give credit to this website called lazy portfolio ETF calm because they were the ones there made this graph here helping me be lazy and not created myself so this is Ray Dalio zahl with a portfolio and I'm just gonna say now they're at the end of this video I'm gonna give you some really interesting insights into the overall return of this portfolio long term so stay tuned for that but we're gonna start with the asset that I like to own the most the se which Warren Buffett also likes to own the most and that is stocks so all we the portfolio has just thirty percent of it in stocks and the stock that they own is an ETF under the ticker symbol vti vti is just a total stock market ETF they seeks to check the performance of the u.s.
total markets they do large mid-cap and small-cap stocks diversified across growth in value styles the fund is fully invested in the stock markets with a really low expense ratio of point zero three percent if we look into the performance of this ETF it has been radios best performing part of his portfolio by far if you invested ten thousand dollars in 2009 and so this ETF that would be worth pretty much forty thousand dollars today a 300% return in just ten years that is crazy good you know if we look at the ten largest holdings of this ETF it's pretty much what you would expect it's got the likes of Microsoft Apple Amazon Facebook Google Berkshire Hathaway it's got a bit of J&J in there a nice dividend stock it's got JP Morgan the bank Exxon Mobil and Visa but you know going back to this funds performance which is really good a lot of people would argue that Dalio should have had more than thirty percent of his portfolio in this ETF and I would say he definitely should have owned more stocks during this period which is one of the reasons why I like buffets because he knows the power of owning stocks owning businesses but remember this even though all with a portfolio is for all market condesa conditions especially for market crashes so it performs best relative to most when the stock market is performing poorly anyway let's move on to what else is in the portfolio okay so what makes up the majority of Ray Dalio portfolio is fixed income so his fixed income is through long-term US bonds and intermediate term u.s.
bonds and this is fixed income because bonds are just investments which pay you a fixed amount of interest on your investment every year so 40% of dahlias portfolio is in a bond that goes under the ticker symbol TLT so TLT is simply a bond ETF which checks bonds issued by the US government and these bonds have maturity of 20 years or more there are extremely long term bonds and you're going to get a yield to maturity of around 2.5 5% so the thing with Treasury bonds is you're guaranteed to get paid no matter what the stock market is doing and it is one of the big reasons why DeLeo performs so well in a crash because these payments are guaranteed by the US government's then you've got the intermediate term bonds under the ticker symbol ie I which are just shorter term bonds with yields to maturity of 3 to 7 years but they also pay less of the yield compared to the other bonds at 2.06 percent okay then we've got 15% of Delia's portfolio that is in commodities 7.5 percent of that is in the commodity gold Ray Dalio he owns gold as a store of value because gold has symbolized value for thousands of years and as a portfolio diversification he says this he says we have a situation now where we have too much debt too much debt leads to the printing of money so all of those things mean that some portion of our portfolio should be in gold because often gold's price follows the amounts of money in the system so obviously increased money printing can increase the price of gold dramatically and they often prints money in and after a stock market crash so Ray Dalio simply has his goal in an ETF under the ticker symbol GLD and g.o.d is the largest ETF to invest and physical gold and tracks the gold spot price using gold bars held in London bolts interesting in the final part today Leo's portfolio is a more general commodities ETF under the ticker symbol G ESG GSG tracks a version of the SNP GS CI so basically it is exposed to as many commodities as possible the GS CI tracks 24 different commodities from all commodity sectors energy products industrial metals agricultural products livestock products and precious metals so this ETF tracks a range of commodities however the ETF is a bit more expensive than most as it has an expense ratio of 0.8% but it does give you exposure to a range of commodities so you know at least Dalio thinks it's worth this and that is what Ray Dalio is very famous and very popular or where the portfolio looks like now hang on a bit because we're going to talk about the performance of dahlias portfolio in a minute and I'm going to show you why I prefer a different strategy when it comes to my portfolio but yeah centrally his portfolio is 7.5 percent in gold 7.5 percents and commodities then you've got 55% in bonds which I know Buffett would look down upon and you've only got 30% and stocks which is the main reason why the portfolio has not performed as well as someone like buffets in the long term because you think about it what are stocks stocks are businesses and over the long term stocks are going to produce items and make money make the shareholders money this term their main point of stocks so stocks over the long term are the beta se2 own out of bonds or commodities ask Buffett and he will tell you the exact same thing now I just want to finish this thing off with looking at the overall return of Ray Dalio as portfolio so if we look at this ok the section says capital growth and historical returns it says an investment of $1000 since January 2007 now would be worth 2282 dollars with the total return of 128 point two three percent that is only six point eight point six point eight two percent annualised okay so if we compare this to something like the Vanguard S&P 500 the Vanguard is simply five hundred got a fourteen point seven percent return over the last ten years Ray Dalio he only got a six point eight two percent if we compare her to someone like Warren Buffett you can see Warren Buffett's since he's been investing since he's made Berkshire Hathaway he's generated a return of twenty point nine percent over that what's that like fifty years so Ray Dalio over the long term he doesn't have the best track record of getting high returns what he does have is he's got an amazing track record of okay performing well in stock market crashes and getting stable returns that are trustworthy that you can bank on so basically if you think there's going to be a stock market crash in the next couple of years you may want to look at you know a certain strategy to Ray Dalio because you know that his portfolio does well in stock market crashes if you ask me I personally prefer a different tactic to prepare for a market crash I definitely would like my portfolio and do have my portfolio and a lot more stocks compared to just the 30 percent owned by Ray Dalio only stocks over the long term it's a powerful thing but if it says the exact same thing stocks are there to make money and that's why I personally prefer to have a lot more than 30 percent in stocks and then I've got other market hedges like I own gold and I own cash equivalents which you know Warren Buffett's that's what he does he owns cash equivalents so that when stocks crash he can keep buy more when they are cheap so that's you know another way around preparing for market crash and you can also own some dividend stocks because dividend stocks if they have strong balance sheets they will keep paying dividends in periods of market crashes and then you can still use them money to buy stocks when they are cheaper so there's a couple of other tactics you may want to look deeper into or you can just employ ray de leus portfolio for returns that are trustworthy that are stable and for returns in a stock market crash where most people will lose a lot of money your portfolio will remain stable
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