저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리는 2008년 금융위기를 예측한 인물로, 2019년 말 기준 13F 공시에 따른 보유 종목을 분석하는 영상이다. 버리가 현재를 자산 버블로 보며, 패시브 인덱스 투자가 대형주에 자금을 몰아주고 있다고 진단한다는 것이 핵심 주장이다. 보유 종목은 게임스톱(비중 27.8%, 약 1,650만 달러), 테일러드브랜즈(21.2%), 알파벳 C주(16.4%), 스포츠맨스웨어하우스(14.1%), 베드배스앤비욘드(13.4%), 바레스 익스플로레이션(6.7%), 셀렉타 바이오사이언스 계열 의료기기사(0.4%)다. 게임스톱은 주가가 고점 대비 약 88% 하락했고 2019년 6억 7,300만 달러 적자를 냈지만, 버리는 재무상태가 양호하고 현재 주가가 과도하게 하락했다고 본다. 테일러드브랜즈는 고점 대비 90% 이상 하락해 주당 약 4달러이며 배당수익률이 13.7%로 언급된다. 알파벳은 유튜브 등 광고 수익이 핵심이며 주가는 약 1,343달러다. 영상은 이를 장기 투자 성격으로 해석한다. 스포츠맨스웨어하우스(시총 약 3억 5,600만 달러), 베드배스앤비욘드(배당수익률 4.37%)도 소형주·가치주 관점에서 언급된다. 진행자는 버리의 소형주 선호를 근거로 소형주에 기회가 있다고 보며, 개인적으로 Sven Carlin의 포트폴리오를 참고한다고 밝힌다. 대상 자산 중 직접 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없으며, 버블 경고와 소형주 기회 언급이 전부다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry he's the guy from the movie the big short who predicted the last financial crisis in 2008 we're the bubble popped and he made millions of dollars from this now the interesting thing is 12 years later from the stock market crash burry thinks there we are in another stock market bubble a burry says this is very much like the bubble and synthetic asset-backed CBO's before the great financial crisis and that price setting and that market was not done by fundamental security liberal analysis but by massive capital flows based on novo approved models of risk that proved to be untrue like most bubbles the longer it goes on the worse the crash will be now the question becomes well how was Michael burry prepared for this potential upcoming market crash in 2020 and that's exactly what we're going to cover in this video Michael buries portfolio in 2020 what are the stocks there Bereans to stay prepared at the moment burry only owns seven stocks burries largest position as a stock by the name of game stop a gaming and electronics company he owns three million shares in the company coming in at a total value position of sixteen point five six million and makes up twenty seven point eight percent of a stock portfolio now games stop as I said before it's an American video game consumer electronics and gaming merchandise retailer it's a gaming an electronics company basically puts and they're a big one as well they have 5830 retail stores throughout the United States Canada Australia New Zealand in Europe they have four main brands which is first obviously Game Stop EB Games you might have heard of that one Think Geek and micromania so you would think gaming at electronics that's a growing industry surely Game Stop is a stock doing well think again Game Stop stock has actually dropped eighty eight percent once selling for a price of forty six point eight dollars to a price today of five dollars fifty this big collapse is the reason why Michael burry chose to buy into Game Stop because he sees value and a cheap price the main reason why game stock crashed was because more and more people these days are buying things online instead of at physical stores like Game Stop this means instead of making money in 2019 they actually lost money six hundred and seventy three million so what does barry say about this Barry says game stops balance sheet is actually in very good shape and as future cash flow would justify a much higher share price burry has personally said that things look worse than it actually is and is obviously very attracted to the current share price he does not think it should have been as hit as bad as it has been and that's why he bought him stock number two tailored brands so this means apparel company is breweries second largest position making up twenty one point two percent of his stock portfolio he owns two point eight seven five million shares in the company with a total value of twelve point six five million Taylor brands it's a holding company for various men's apparel stores including the likes of Men's Wearhouse and Jos a bank brands so they offer things like suits business casual wear dress shirts also sportswear and sports coats shoes and stuff like that today they have over 1400 locations and selling these types of items however just like Game Stop this stock has been absolutely pummeled over the past couple of years it's actually down over ninety percent since its high in 2015 of $65 per share and this is the time when brewery likes to come in and snap up shares when there are cheap generally speaking he doesn't like those stocks at all-time highs he likes those stocks that have crashed and right now Taylor brands are selling for a price of $4 a tea that gives it a dividend yield of 13.7 percent looks like a very interesting buy now a lot of you will know the stock a lot of you should know the stock its alphabet there the company that owns Google alphabets actually a pretty strong position in microbreweries portfolio it makes up sixteen point four percent of his total stock portfolio he owns eight thousand shares in the Class C section of the stock and it makes up a value of nine point seven five million alphabet they're a pretty easy company to get your head around they make most of the money from advertising Google ads just think about how many people are on Google and how many people are seen the ads it's a lot I'll tell you that but alphabet they also own YouTube which also obviously gets a lot of users actually five billion videos are watched on YouTube every day that's a lot of ads and that's a lot of money for alphabet who take 40 percent of the ad revenue but then alphabet also own a bunch of other major companies which you can see on this graph Coleco 'verily deepmind android etc the likes of these type of companies but for all of those who are looking to get your hands on alphabet Google stock it's a fair chunk of change currently selling for price of one thousand three hundred forty three dollars per share if I had a guess I would say this is a more long-term play from brewery because of all of of bets businesses that they are set to take advantage of in the future giving burry nice exposure to the sporting side of business is the stock called Sportsman's Warehouse took assemble SP WH he owns 8.4 million dollars worth of the stock and as you can see it makes up 14.1% of a stock portfolio here in the US so the interesting thing about a lot of breweries investments is he's focusing on small cap stocks because he believes passive investments like index funds heaven fellated the large cap stocks and therefore left opportunity in the smaller cap ones and sportsmen warehouse is one of those small cap stocks with a market cap of only 356 million their brewery has seen opportunity in another stock that has been beaten lately is buries fifth-largest position bid Bath and Beyond and one of the nice things about the stock is that it pays a dividend yield of 4.3 7% so all you dividend investors out there you might want to look deeper into the stock I mean Bed Bath and Beyond they sell a range of merchandise through the different brand names bed linens bath items kitchen textiles tabletops house where items relating to those sort of categories in brewery owns a decent portion in the stock it accounts for thirteen point four percent of his portfolio he owns 750,000 shares in it and its total value is worth almost eight million dollars when you account for its four point nine percent dividend yield that's not a bad amount of dividends that breweries receiving each year I wouldn't employ myself moving on to the next dock though barrese exposition is one of the largest oil and gas companies in the world and it's based in Canada the company has reserves of nine point six seven nine billion barrels of oil equivalents CNR also has two operated pipeline systems and electricity cogeneration facility and a 50% partnership in the northwest rewarder partnership that's what you need to know about the company what you need to know about burries position is that at six point seven percent of his portfolio he owns a hundred and fifty thousand shares which is worth almost four million dollars if you take a look at their strategy when it comes to their assets they like to diversify they own a range of different types of oils and gases and as you can see it's across the world as well North America the North Sea and offshore Africa let's move on to the last dock and then I want to talk about how to stay prepared for the potential market crash and 2020 2021 whenever the heck it might happen now the stock let's be honest that only makes up 0.4% of the portfolio we don't want to focus on it too much it's a stock coordinate Vectra brewery only has two hundred and sixty three thousand dollars worth in this medical device company and for him that's a really small amount so I don't want to give it too much attention but the one thing they does deserve a lot of attention is burries prediction that we are in a bubble because of passive investing peru said the dirty secret of passive index funds with an open end closed end or ETF is the distribution of daily dollar value traded among the securities within the indices they mimic trillions of dollars in assets globally are indexed to certain stocks the theater keeps getting more crowded but the exit door is the same as it always was so what are you saying is all this money is going towards those big market cap stocks because of passive investing instead of people analyzing each stock that they buy they just put it on an index fund without knowing the value of each Peck and this is why brewery thinks that there's still opportunities available today and certain smaller cap companies that are less analyzed by investors so that is why in today's market you can analyze into those smaller cap stocks their brewery is investing in or you can go to other experts my personal main go-to guy is someone called Sven Carlin he invests in those type of stocks that are less analyzed by investors and therefore they offer greater opportunity I just like Buffett said if he had less money he would be looking at those smaller cap companies anyway I'll leave a link to spins portfolio in the description that's definitely worth it but those are the seven stocks owned by Michael burry through his investing fund seon Asset Management's now remember that these stocks are the ones that he legally has to disclose the one thing that he doesn't have to disclose is his short positions which I would love to know but unfortunately that's not possible nevertheless Murray clearly sees opportunity in smaller cap companies and companies there have been beaten down in terms of price and that's where most of us stocks are today you
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