원문 보기
My first guest, uh, sees what Lisa's title says, something like a hawk. I want to invite, uh, the president of Yardini Research to Yardini. So, here's the thing, uh, and I think when I read your article, it struck a lot of people about the task force. The working group will have a common goal. The Fed clearly understands its mission, executes it, and focuses on the future.
They will probably start work within the next few weeks and have it completed by the end of the year, and the thing is, they want stability. They want stability, which is all I think with all the fair seats. But you came thinking that Walsh was more of a hawk than a dove. Well, more than, uh, it was prompted by his uh speeches and comments before he uh got the job.
I mean, obviously when he was interviewing for the position with the president, he sounded pretty attractive. Is it some kind of bait and switch, or did he do it? The president probably feels that way, and hopefully the president won't react negatively the way he reacted to Pal, but it seems to contradict what he told the president.
I, I, I see it differently. I think he's getting ready to do everything he told the president, but he can't do it with the current guidelines. Are you surprised by how the market is reacting today? Well, you know, the markets, I think, continue to, uh, have these little, uh, tantrums and downturns, and, uh, they get over it very, very quickly .
Very quickly. Very quickly. It's a pity I didn't survive the cold. Well, these are his profits. I mean, the profits were fabulous. I call them the fabulous earnings impulse, FIMO. So, you mentioned the possibility of a June recession. If we don't get a June recession, it looks like we wo n't have one now.
Combined with things like the rapid fall in oil prices . Of course. What does this mean? Could this signal an even stronger summer, perhaps a summer growth spurt? Well, listen, I like your script. He is good and believable. And I mean, I'm using 8250 for the S& P 500 through the end of the year. I was saying somewhere last week that you might not have been optimistic enough.
Yes. Yes. Because profit figures continue to rise . But, overall, earnings continue to drive the market up, that's for sure. One of your notes this week, you talked about, because of the circumstances, it might be worth looking abroad, staying at home but going global. What exactly, this is one of your great graphs that you had, you see opportunities in the rest of the world.
Yes, the rest of the world is certainly cheaper on a P/E basis than the United States, and I think that, uh, we've seen emerging markets thrive. I like, uh, EMXC, it's emerging markets excluding China. China was not a good place to invest. But of course, this includes some AI games like Korea and Taiwan.
I mean, the irony, I think, is that , um, a lot of it is still technology-based. People say that relative strength is thriving. Yes. Technology is the driving force. You know that emerging markets are booming. Technology is the driving force. Technology is truly the driving force behind everything. Right.
And that's the part, you know, that brings me to one of your articles this week. The Roaring 20s . Bring rockets and Mars into the equation. It just seems like it's the same incentive, if you will. No pun intended. This is an incentive, but you also have to worry about events at the top of the market.
Uh, when we all get fired up about something, uh, and we're actually forecasting what the revenues and profits will be in a few years, rather than what the near-term outlook will be, that's something to worry about. How far should we go? Because it seems like something like a new paradigm might emerge.
It seems to me that many traditional investors on Wall Street missed this growth, thinking about what the return on investment will be in the next 12 months, rather than perhaps in the next 24 months. I think that's a valid observation , and that's why we focused on calling it the turbulent 2020s. That's exactly how it feels.
In fact, we are already in the seventh year of the turbulent 2020s, and you have three more years. I think that by the end of 2029 the market will be discounting the price to around $500 per share for 2030. Multiply that by 20 and you get 10,000, and technology will undoubtedly be among the winners.
Gold is coming back. I want to ask you about this. Um, this isn't for you. Sorry. This is for our next guest. I want to ask you about gold. It seems like the gold is at the bottom here. I really think that, uh , it broke through its 200-day moving average and then found support at 4,000. I'm saying this as a technician, not a fundamentalist.
And I think that was the bottom, and I think it will gradually move even higher. I'm still using the 5500 for the rest of the year. Good. Before I let you go, your biggest problem right now is perhaps the occasional burst of over- enthusiasm. Well, you know, I just met with a lot of our institutional clients here in New York, and I'll tell you what they're most concerned about is that you're saying that we're building too many data centers and that the core isn't going to be there .
And, uh, maybe one day one of the hyperscalers, instead of reporting 40% cloud revenue growth, reports 10%, and the market gets scared of it. So that's a problem. Yes. That's why I say that next week, I think, micron, well, you know, these are the ones who, you know, certain companies are going to have to prove that this thing is still intact. Yes. Absolutely. Yes. Wonderful material . Yes. With pleasure.
Comments 0