저자: Fox Business · 외국인
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잭슨홀 연설 이후 연준의 금리 인상 가능성이 주요 쟁점으로 떠올랐다. 9월과 12월 회의를 앞둔 시장 반응과 위원들 사이의 이견, 실질 가처분소득 부진이 핵심 변수다. 발언자는 12월에도 금리 인상이 가능하며, 최소 한두 차례 추가 인상으로 인플레이션 목표에 도달할 수 있다고 본다. 인플레이션의 일부는 중동 긴장에 따른 유가 상승 탓이라고 설명했다. AI 관련 설비투자와 데이터센터 건설도 물가에 상방 압력을 더하고 있다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
♪ ♪ ♪ AND SO BACK IN AUGUST MY NEXT GUEST CALLED KEVIN WARSH JACKSON HOLE SPEECH OF BUSHES NOTING TWO THINGS THAT STOOD OUT, WHEN THINK THAT HE SAID WAS LIKE WELL KEVIN WARSH IT WILL INFLATION IS MOVING TO OUR OBJECTIVE IN CLEARLY INSUFFICIENT SPEED WE WERE TO DO, AND ALSO NOTING OF COURSE THAT THEY INFLATIONS READING WERE BETTER EXPECTED DO NOT TELL ME THE UNDERLYING INFLATION TRENDS ARE MANY HUNDRED MEANINGFULLY IMPROVED AND OF COURSE, HE SAID TIME THEY WERE NOT RESTRICTIVE AND WONDERING IN RIDGE, PEPCO GLOBAL ECONOMIC ADVISOR AND RANCH, DID THIS WILL, I MEAN, J OKAY WELL KEVIN WARSH.
[ LAUGHTER] AND JACKSON HOLE AND YESTERDAY THE PODIUM ARE THEY THE SAME PERSON IN YOUR MIND. WILL THEY ARE IN IMPORTANTLY BETWEEN JACKSON HOLE YESTERDAY CHARLESTON WE ARE COURSE IN THE MEETING IN DECEMBER COME ON THE COMMITTEE VOTED UNANIMOUSLY TO LIKE THE READS SO WHEN KEVIN WARSH AND I SAID THERE’ S WORK TO DO THAT WORK STARTED AT THE SEPTEMBER MEETING.
I GOTCHA AND SO AND IN THAT MEETING, IN JULY, THE YIELD WAS STEEP AND OKAY IN THE INITIAL REACTION’ S DEEPENING AGAIN IN THE DOLLAR MOVE VERY SIMILAR MOVE AGAIN AND SO, THE MARKETS REACTIONS WERE ABOUT THE SAME. TO BOTH MEETING. YES. BUT A LOT OF FOLKS CAN AWAY FROM THERE SORT OF FRUSTRATED THAT IF IT DID NOT HIKE.
I THINK THE QUESTION WASN’ T AGAIN I THINK THAT THEY ARE OPENING QUOTE FROM AUGUST SPEECH WAS WE WANT TO SEE PROGRESS AND INFLATION GETTING BACK DOWN TO 2 AUGUST, THERE’ S NOT BEEN THAT MUCH PROGRESS AND THEY INFLATIONS BEEN TREADING WATER SO I THINK THAT THAT YOU WANT TO CONTINUE TO HIKE IN THE ANSWER THAT WE GOT FROM CHAIRMAN KEVIN WARSH YESTERDAY WAS THAT THEY SEE SOME PROGRESS IN TERMS OF TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS.
AND I ALSO WANT TO DO ACCUMULATING MORE INFORMATION BEFORE THE COMMITTEE TO MAKE A DECISION AGAIN AT THE DECEMBER MEETING. AND I EXPECT THEM TO MOVE AGAIN IN DECEMBER SO DON’ T THINK THIS IS ONE AND THEN THE FED AND I THINK THERE’ S AT LEAST ONE MORE ADDITIONAL RATE HIKE AND PERHAPS, IN THE PIPELINE TO MORE BUT THEY RECALIBRATE SMACKS OF THREE RIGHT NOW AND LEASE MANY MORE TO YOUR POINT, OKAY WE’ VE HAD FOR THE LAST FEW MEETING SAID IS THERE SOME ENTRY GOING ON THAT WE SHOULD KNOW ABOUT.
I DO NOT REALLY THINK SO I GUESS BIT OF AS A PRICE WAS ONLY TWO DESCENT BECAUSE OF JULY WITH MANY OF YOU ACTUALLY THREE DISSENTS, FROM TOWN MAKING AND CAUTION. AND LOGAN AND LISA COOK DESCENDED YESTERDAY AND AT FIRST I THINK DISSENT IS A GOVERNOR PRAYED AND ALSO YOU KNOW LISA COOK AND SOME OF HER RECENT SPEECHES HAS BEEN CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION IN PARTICULAR REALLY COMES OF AMERICANS SMACK POINT WE HAVE AN UPDATE ON LEFT TODAY.
YES WE CAN SEE THAT IS DISPOSABLE REAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME AND IS A PRETTY TOUGH NUMBERS. IT IS A TOUGH NEVER FOR THE THREE MONTH AVERAGE, IS REALLY ONLY BASICALLY TREADING WATER. IS JUST A MONTH AND A THREE MONTH AND IT GETS BETTER AS IT GOES OUT NOT RIGHT NOW YOU KNOW YESTERDAY, KEVIN WARSH TALK ABOUT OPENING A WINDOW AND SEEING WHAT THE GENERAL PUBLIC FEELS AND THINKS AND THIS IS WHAT THEY THINK, SO WHEN A RATE HIKE WHAT WOULD YOU RATE HIKE DO FOR THESE FOLKS.
A RATE HIKE OVER TIME WILL BRING DOWN INFLATION AND BRING IT BACK TOWARDS THE FED’ S TARGET IN IMPORTANTLY BRING IT DOWN BELOW WAGE INCREASES IN REAL INCOMES ARE GROWING AND I DO NOT THINK THERE’ S ANY QUESTION ABOUT THAT NOW THE REAL QUESTION IS HOW MANY RATE HIKES WILL TAKE THE FED TO GET TO THAT DESTINATION.
AND RIGHT NOW IT WAS LIKE MAYBE ANOTHER COUPLE OF RATE HIKES SOME OF THE INFLATION IS YEARS DUE TO THE HIGHER OIL PRICES BECAUSE WHAT WE SAW HOSTILITY STILL IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE FED IS WILLING TO TRY TO LOOK THROUGH THAT TO SOME EXTENT. LET’ S ASK ABOUT THE SUPER INTELLIGENCE THING BECAUSE AS INFLATION, POTENTIALLY TAKING JOBS AND THAT PRODUCTIVITY GAINS AT AND SO WE HEARD ABOUT THE PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IS STRONG AND CAPITOL INVESTMENT IS ROBUST AND ALL OF THAT REALLY A LOT OF IT TIDED TO SUPER INTELLIGENCE AI.
YES SIR. HOW DOES THE FEDERAL RESERVE DEAL WITH SOMETHING LIKE THIS THAT I THINK THAT THESE THINGS CERTAINLY THERE PRODUCTIVITY GAINS GROUNDS SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR OTHER OFFSETS THERE AS WELL. WELL INDEED AND SO THE THING ABOUT SUPER INTELLIGENCE IS THAT IT JUST IS NOT FALL FROM THE SKY COMING UP TO BUILD THE DATA CENTERS NOW FIRE CONSTRUCTION WORKERS AND BUILD POWER PLANTS.
PLEASE PRAY WHILE, SUPER INTELLIGENCE DATA CENTERS REPORTING UPPER PRESSURE ON PRICES IN THE FED DOES NOT THE INNOVATION THEY HAVE A MANDATE TO ACHIEVE PRICE STABILITY YOU DETERMINE HIMSELF AS RECENTLY ACKNOWLEDGED THAT IS PUSHING THE PRICES RIGHT NOW IS ONE OF THE MOTIVATIONS YOU KNOW TO HIKE THE RATES AS THEY DID IN SEPTEMBER.
VIEWER VOTING MEMBER AND HE SAID HE FELT THAT IT WAS GREAT THAT THEY HAVE RIGHT NOW PATIENTS IS THE RIGHT APPROACH AND HOW WOULD A VIEW OF VOTED YESTERDAY IF YOU HAD TO GO. I WOULD’ VE BEEN IN THAT CAMP, AND THINK IN PARTICULAR AS SOME OPTIMISM IN THE SUMMER THAT WE WOULD SEE MORE PROGRESS THEN WE HAVE COME UP IN A DOWNSHIFT AND INFLATION SO BEEN IN THE CAMP THAT WOULD FIGHT IN SEPTEMBER AND THAT WOULD BE CONSIDERING ANOTHER HIGH IN DECEMBER AND THINK YOU NEED TO DO IT EVERY MEETING AND CERTAINLY DON’ T THINK THAT WE ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF A PROLONGED RATE HIKE CYCLE ONE OR TWO WILL DO THE TRICK.
GREAT STUFF. SO GOOD TO SEE YOU. LOVE YOUR WISDOM WE NEED IT. OKAY FOLKS COMING UP, YOU KNOW THE BEST WHEN IT COMES TO THE SMALL AND MID-CAP CHILLY OF
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