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hi there Stephanie cameraman live at the Las Vegas money show 2018 and I'm here with Ken Fisher it's just so amazing to do if you can how many years are you in this business we're not gonna give your age away but 1972 so you've seen a lot of different things in the market more or less so you have uses about two-thirds blind what I say history repeats itself and are you seeing any kind of repetition with today's economy that we've had in the past are you seeing any similar patterns you know it's always the same but it's always different so what what I believe we're in right now is a world that people can't recognize as such but is a year if not complete Goldilocks economy we're on a global basis it's not too hot it's not too cold inflation is not too bad but it's not too terrible things overall are synchronized but not scary and yet people are fearful those two together with the people afraid of an otherwise goldilocks world is something that I believe leads into with time that process where John Templeton famously said bull markets are born on pessimism grow on skepticism mature on optimism and die of euphoria we're gonna move I think Georgie phoria as people come to realize maybe not with the word Goldilocks but that we're in a pretty darn year of Goldilocks like world therefore they should become less fearful less fearful less fearful less fearful and with that a better market what about interest rates I am in favor of having interest rates yes they're not raising them very quickly though no and everybody thought they would wouldn't they now you know why let's talk about that yes interesting you raise interest rates if you want to fight inflation but inflation is not being a problem correct number two long rates are a real rate which Wiggles very little unless you have a crisis and when it's fights and a inflation premium which you only get the inflation premium to go up much if you get inflation to go up much so in a relatively benign inflation world you don't get a big inflation premium we don't have a crisis so you don't get the real rate spiking there for long rates earning more benign than able to expect this year if you look in this is one of my basic rules of life if you look at what professional forecasters forecast as a group and agree on they are the universe almost perfectly and more so than non professionals that are reflective of what to be priced in markets my saying is that professionals are longer stronger and longer than normal people the fact of the matter is from the beginning of this year professional forecasters in forecasting and interest rates would go up a lot corrects but they've gone up 20 beats freaked-out as we touch 3% and the freak out again is a bullish on and how about the dollar what are your thoughts on that are we gonna go up higher on today where we're off of it I don't forget the dollar but fundamentally it's normal for Americans to freak out about the dollar and here's the dollar will go away fundamentally and I just point this out it's just a simple example of history every time there's a crisis anywhere in the world the dollar Heiser's relative to other currencies the fact of the matter is for all kinds of basic reasons the dollar is more sound in a crisis than all that currency stuff that's outside of the bank in day-to-day people were enough to daughter worry about the dollar worry about the dollar that's normal and one of the crisis money flows from all over the world we're gonna put you to put pesos Chinese gonna put in job mice that they would but people don't do it yeah euro gonna be stable in the long term let's see you know put it into minim are the country formerly known as Burma well not too much I don't think so the answer is were you gonna go in the ghost busters are America excellent stuff you are - guys thank you so much Ken for being here my pleasure thank you for having
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