저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 달러·국채 위기가 임박했다고 보며, 금과 해외 신흥국·채권 등으로 자산을 옮기라고 주장한다. 과거 예측 이력: 2008년 금융위기와 주택 버블을 경고했고 실업률 두 자릿수, 패니메이·프레디맥 파산을 예측했다고 회상한다. 다만 이는 과거 설명이므로 예측 평가에서는 제외한다. 현재 버블 진단: 버냉키·옐런의 통화 정책 실수가 그린스펀 때보다 훨씬 크고, 현재 버블은 2008년보다 훨씬 크다고 본다. 트럼프 대통령 임기 중 붕괴할 가능성이 높다고 본다. 달러·국채 위기 전망: 이번에는 달러와 미국 국채에서 자금이 빠져나가는 통화 위기가 될 것이라고 본다. 국채 부채가 크게 늘어나 신뢰 상실로 이어질 수 있다고 주장한다. 안전자산 재정의: 달러는 안전자산에서 위험자산으로 바뀌고, 다음 안전자산은 금과 일부 외국 통화(채권국·수출국 경제)가 될 것이라고 본다. 금 관련: 금은 과거 고점 대비 여전히 저평가이며, 금 관련 주식도 매우 싸다고 본다. 금 가격이 1300달러 부근을 돌파하면 빠르게 오를 수 있다고 주장한다. 버블이 늦게 터지는 이유: 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지하고 있으나 결국 통제력을 잃을 것이며, 금리가 오르면 정부의 이자 지급 부담으로 붕괴가 드러난다고 본다. 포트폴리오 조언: 미국 외 신흥국 주식은 올해 S&P500 대비 두 배 이상 수익을 내고 있으나 여전히 싸다고 본다. 약달러 수혜를 받는 선진국 시장도 유망하다고 본다. 미국 국채는 피하고 싱가포르·뉴질랜드 등의 채권을 고려하며, 만기는 짧게 가져가라고 조언한다. 리스크·조건: 붕괴 시점은 명확히 특정하지 않으며, 금리 상승이 촉발 조건으로 제시된다. 버블이 얼마나 오래 지속될지는 본인도 확신하지 못한다고 인정한다. 출연자 전망 정리: 쉬프는 달러 약세와 미국 자산 이탈을 예고하며, 금 중심 매수를 권한다.
다듬은 글
hi John Toby's from Forbes here welcome Facebook live viewers were at the money show San Francisco talking to Peter Schiff from Euro Pacific Capital yes remember you back in the day we were talking about the Fed this is when Greenspan was still in office yeah back then I was talking about the financial crisis that was coming I was talking about how the feds mistakes had inflated a real estate bubble and how when it pops we were having the worst recession since the Great Depression I was predicting double-digit unemployment and trillion-dollar deficits I was predicting the bankruptcy of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and of course all that stuff happened and you were predicting the Cubs would win the World Series - and you called me in the third quarter the Super Bowl - he told me the Patriots were actually gonna win look I did think the pages were gonna pull that one off so but but this is more important than totally because if the reality is the problems that I saw leading up to the 2008 financial crisis are dwarfed by the problems that we have now the monetary mistakes that have been made under Bernanke and Yellen are much larger than mistakes at Greenspan made so the problems they have created the bubble that they have inflated is far bigger and so what happened to no eight that's nothing compared to what's about to happen and unfortunately this thing is probably going to blow up on Donald Trump and I wish he hadn't acclaimed ownership you know he put his brand on this stock market bubble on this phony economy and this thing is going down in a big way they're gonna have to rename the Great Recession because this one is going to be worse and if we're still going to be in it when Trump's up for reelection but we are gonna have a dollar crisis this time it's not going to be garden-variety financial crisis see that was nothing compared to a currency crisis when the dollar is what's under collapse when people are running away from Treasuries not just mortgage-backed securities but when the US Treasury bond market is concluding because of a loss of confidence in our ability to pay our debts right which is long overdue it's a totally different story and the average American is going to suffer much more this time but also there's a much bigger potential for the average investor that's why I'm here at the money show to try to show people how to profit from the events that are about to unfold you know last time there was a flight to safety and back in those days like I'm talking in 2008-2009 the flight to safety was was into the u.s.
bond market and the US dollar so the dollar did not collapse right but we've got what about a doubling of the national debt more than that for up to 20 trillion I think we have like eight and a half trillion back yeah then this time is gonna be a flight to safety but it's going to be a flight from the dollar from Treasury's because people are gonna realize that there is no safety there and so the next safe haven is going to be gold right and it's going to be certain other foreign currencies where the governments are in much better physical shape or the economies are in much better shape these are creditor nations countries that export rather than import that save rather than borrow so you're gonna see a redefinition of what is a safe haven and what is a risk asset because the dollar is going to go from being a safe asset to being a risk gasket in fact from being the riskiest athlet and people are going to be getting rid of them as quick as they can we're gonna talk in a minute about what to do specifically if this scenario transpires with Peter Schiff come on back you know you get to a lot of philosophical question you let's do that hi John Davis at the San Francisco Money show here I'm from Forbes I'm with Peter Schiff he's from Europe pacific capital peter has been an outspoken proponent of a basically wrecked economy well I'm a proponent you argue why it could happen though well I just call like I see it I'm not you know caught up at all this hype and propaganda that comes out of Washington or Wall Street we're in a lot of trouble you know Donald Trump was right when he was a candidate this is a big fat ugly bubble he come is a disaster the difference is it hasn't gotten any better since Trump was elected it's the same economy it's the same phony numbers it's the same bubble and unfortunately it's gonna pop under his watch so if that does happen if does pop if people lose confidence globally in the dollar as a riskless asset where are they going to put their hard-earned money well drink well something's gonna evaporate into money heaven because there's a dollar plunges from people who have dollars by the time they sell they're gonna get fewer zeros or whatever your yen or fewer ounces of gold but people are gonna pull their money out of US assets and they're gonna recognize America for what it is right it's not this safe haven we're not credit worthy we're really like a banana republic our debt is junk bonds people just don't you know connect the dots that should be rather obvious why hasn't happened yet though you know I mean we've got 20 trillion in debt we've got receipts of about 3 billion a year 3 trillion a year why hasn't the collapse come yet you know what will the taker be people were saying that to me about the housing market Peter you've been talking about this bubble for years why haven't it collapsed you know you know bubbles get bigger than you think eventually they pop in the air comes out and so why is it taking so long I don't know I'm usually the bigger they are the longer it takes the Papa but the whole world is caught up in this hysteria and you know they've been able to keep interest rates artificially low but eventually they're going to lose control eventually interest rates are going to go up and that's going to expose the farce because we can't pay when interest rates go up we're to grow them can barely afford to pay now in fact we can't afford to pay now because the US government has to borrow the money to pay the interest on the money it's already borrowed but if the interest rate goes up then that's it the party's over but before that party ends you got to get your portfolio in order what would you do then to protect yourself now before this rush out of the dollar happens that you think might invest in foreign stocks look at emerging markets you're crushing it this year more than double the return on the SP and they're still cheap so there's a lot of economies that are the benefit from a weak dollar also develop markets if you like bonds fine but don't buy bonds of the United States maybe look at Singapore look at look at New Zealand keep your maturity short because the rates are still low globally but you gotta get out of the dollar you got a home gold gold stocks are dirt cheap even though they're you know they're up quite a bit last year they're up again this year compared to the price of gold there historically cheap a lot of money to be made by people who buy these stocks very few people own them now you know which is another reason that they're so cheap but you need to be smart gold needs to get up what at 50% to get to where it was in 2012 when it peaked right that was remember it went from under $300 an ounce or houses up to 1900 and then it pulled back and now we're around 12 85 1290 you know we corrected we'd built a great base for the last few years once we take out 1300 1315 but maybe 1300 it'll move quick if you're not on board by then you may never get on board so just buy now don't wait for the Stampede Peter thanks a lot
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