저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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달러 탈달러화가 지속되며 중앙은행 금 매입과 귀금속(특히 은) 추가 상승 전망. 미국 주식에서 해외 주식으로 자금 이동, 신흥국이 약달러 수혜. 관세는 미국 경제 경쟁력 저하·인플레 및 실업 악화 요인. 연준은 금리 인하 대신 인상이 필요하며, 재정적자와 채권시장 우려로 장기금리 통제력 상실 주장. 금광주(GDX 연초 대비 약 70% 상승)는 하반기 추가 상승 여력 있다고 봄. 미국 달러지수 40 이하, 국채·달러 폭락 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
I haven't had this week's money show money masters podcast guest on in almost a year. Back then, he told me precious metals would surge, mining stocks would sore, the US dollar would drop, and foreign stocks would outperform their US counterparts. That turned out to be a four for four set of forecasts.
So, where do things stand now? What new plays in foreign markets and commodities might make more sense now than? What impacts will the intervening developments on the tariff, monetary policy, and economic front likely have on your portfolio? To get the answers, I'm welcoming back Peter Schiff, chief global strategist at Europacific Asset Management to the podcast.
Thanks for joining me, Peter. Peter, thank you so much for joining me. Um, I was looking back and it's actually been about a year since I've had you on the podcast. And and when I go back and look at what you said then it was that this is an environment tailor made for hard assets, precious metals, mining stocks and non US stocks and today everything from gold, silver, emerging markets.
I mean it's been sort of batting a thousand. So congratulations on that. Where do we stand now? I mean as we roll into the back half of of 2025, how have things changed or not changed? Well, I I think the back half will will look uh similar to the front half when it comes to the ddollarization trend continuing.
And I think you're going to see uh foreign central banks continuing to divest of US dollars. Maybe they'll pick up the pace. Uh but the obvious uh uh alternative is gold. And so that's what's going on. Central central banks are trying to replace dollars and US treasuries with gold. That should continue.
I think that we're going to see silver uh playing catch-up to gold. Uh it started to move uh recently. I think it's going to continue that momentum and I also think you're going to see a global shift out of US stocks uh into foreign stocks. I think that's part of the whole ddollarization trade. It's uh selling overvalued uh US stocks and bonds and bringing money home and investing it uh in in uh better valuations domestically and you know escaping the currency risk of the dollar and uh you know I think the tariffs are just compounding the problems for the US economy and making it even less likely that the world wants to continue to fund our deficits and uh you know enable uh the proflegacy that that uh that has characterized our our our economy for the last several decades.
You know, let's try and unpack each of those markets one by one and starting with uh gold particularly in precious metals. I mean, you know, we had a lot of foreign central bank buying for a long period of time, but it seemed like the private market wasn't so much jumping on that. But that definitely has started to change, correct?
In gold and I guess some of the other metals like silver, right? Well, I think a little bit. I mean I think uh the private investors are are still uh not really you know obl not really uh understanding what's going on. So they remain kind of oblivious uh to this. I think a lot of people in the private sector are still skeptical of the gold rally and maybe don't expect it to continue, but I think slowly you're starting to see some investors waking up to this.
that I think that's going to be the trend uh as more and more uh institutional money realizes what they've what they've been missing and understands or begins to understand uh the the huge challenges facing the US economy and how the the uh administration Trump administration is actually making the problems worse.
Let's talk about that with the tariff, you know, all the tariff announcements and sort of the scattershot nature of some of them. You know, what impact is that having? What is your thought? What are your thoughts on what that means for inflation and just how money is getting allocated globally? Well, you know, the tariffs will make the US uh economy even less competitive than it is now because it's going to raise production costs uh particularly for US companies that rely on imported uh components or other uh materials in the production process.
So, it's just a you know a giant tax increase um that is not going to you know uh you know be be a good thing. Uh, I'd rather see significant cuts to government spending than increases in in taxation. Uh, but I also think by pricing Americans out of uh some of these imports uh or you know that the Americans are going to have to spend less because everything they want to buy is going to cost more.
Uh that's going to also have other repercussions in the economy. Higher unemployment, larger budget deficits. uh they may be a little bit offset by the tariff revenue, but I don't think it will be enough. Meanwhile, you have even bigger deficit spending uh that is the result of the big beautiful bill.
But I also think that uh we're alienating the rest of the world by trying to vilify them or blaming them for our problems and you know imposing these tariffs and basically claiming that you know we're punishing the world like oh the world needs to pay these tariffs. They're not going to pay the tariffs.
I think what's going to happen is they're going to just trade a lot less with the United States and other trading relationships are going to become more important because uh consumers in those countries won't be burdened by tariffs uh the way Americans are. And so we're simply alienating ourselves from the rest of the world.
And we are underestimating just how important the rest of the world's support has been for our economy because without the rest of the world, Americans would pay much higher prices for goods and much higher interest rates to borrow money, including the US government, which is the biggest borrower of them all.
And the US government has really, you know, not only just shot itself in the foot, but maybe in the head uh by alienating uh our biggest uh uh creditors. Yeah, and I'm glad you brought that up. I mean, you know, the the trajectory when it comes to debts, when it comes to deficits, really doesn't seem to be a, you know, which side of the aisle kind of issue.
It's happened under both types of administrations. What's your best read on where we're at now? Uh, you know, on that score and what it means for the bond market. Well, I think the bond market is in a lot of trouble and I think that may be one of the reasons that the Fed has been reluctant to cut rates.
I think they may have learned a lesson from the last rate cut which resulted in a big increase in long-term rates. I think if the Fed cut again, uh the bond markets would have the same reaction. Uh and so that is I think a reason that they're not cutting is because a lot of people still harbor the delusion that the Fed has control over the long end and it does not.
I I think the only way that they could bring long-term rates down would be to uh resume QE. and that but that'll only work for short term. In the long run, that's going to make you know rates go up even higher. But that would be the only way I think in my opinion the government, the Federal Reserve could get long-term interest rates to go down, especially if they cut short-term rates in an environment of rising inflation, which is where we are.
And so they would be perceived as throwing gasoline on a fire. And you know, bonds, particularly longer duration bonds, they're the biggest victims of inflation. So, if the Fed is creating more inflation, the last thing that you would want to own uh would be uh long-term US dollar denominated bonds.
Well, let's talk about some of the Fed sort of the machinations, the political stuff going on there. I mean, you've got the Marin appointment. You've got, you know, a couple of the the Fed governors talking or members talking about wanting lower rates. How do you think that's all going to play out over the next six to 12 months?
Well, I think, you know, we're going to continue to get more weak economic data and so that's going to provide the impetus for a lot of people to call for rate cuts. They're going to say the rate cuts are justified. Uh we get more inflation data, CPI, PPI data this week. I I don't think you're going to be seeing uh benign numbers there.
I think the numbers are going to go up, but I think a lot of people are going to blame uh the increases on the tariffs and therefore claim that we should look through those increases that they're they're transitory and and that the Fed should ignore that and cut rates anyway. But I I I think that would be a mistake.
I think the Fed should be hiking rates. I don't think rates are high enough. I think they stopped hiking too soon. They didn't stop hiking because they, you know, were victorious over inflation. They stopped hiking because banks started failing. And so they realized they had, you know, pushed rates beyond the point where a lot of our overleveraged banks could survive.
And, you know, that's unfortunate. The government created that situation. But I think, uh, you know, putting out the inflation fire is more important. And if it means that banks have got to fail, then they've got to fail. That's the unfortunate consequence of all these years of bad monetary policy and bad fiscal policy as well.
Yeah. Given that, you know, what's your read on on the the growth situation? You know, we've talked some on the inflation side, we've talked about tariffs. What about the latest jobs numbers? I mean, we've clearly seen fading there. You know, we saw those big downward revisions. How do you think that plays out over the back half of this year?
Yeah. Well, I was expecting those revisions. I had been warning about them for months as everybody was celebrating the better than expected jobs numbers. I told people to, you know, to to hold the champagne because I was confident that those numbers would get revised down and they actually got revised down even more than I had estimated.
But but but I knew that that those revisions were coming and I didn't believe the rosy numbers that were being put out by the administration, I mean by the uh Bureau of Labor Statistics. And I'm similarly skeptical of the GDP numbers. You know, the last GDP number that we got showed 3% growth. I don't believe the economy is growing at 3%.
I think that's, you know, uh, a bad number as well. I I think the one thing that you can count on the government doing is getting the numbers wrong. Uh, they pretty much always estimate overestimate the good stuff and underestimate the bad stuff. So, I think the economy is not nearly as strong as they claim.
Uh, we found out now that the job growth wasn't as strong as they claim. And I don't think inflation is as low as they claim. I think the inflation numbers are wrong in the other direction. I think we we actually have uh a higher, you know, bigger increases in prices than what is being reflected in the CPI.
Let's talk about being a metals investor in this kind of environment of tariff volatility. I mean, we saw what happened with the copper. You know, tariffs on then tariffs off and the volatility with those futures. We've seen gold in the last week kind of, you know, get some of the same treatment based on tariff announcements.
How do you cope with that as an investor? Is there anything that people need to do if they're active in that market uh to compare or you know prepare for this type of stuff? Well, I think it's irrelevant if you're just a long-term holder or buyer of metals. I mean, obviously, if you're trading uh on a daily basis and you're looking for uh opportunities to profit from these swings, uh it's very important.
I mean, I think Trump has interjected a lot more uncertainty and volatility into the markets because, you know, he could say one thing one day and the complete opposite the next and you have no idea. Uh so the markets are trading off of a lot of, you know, Trump's posts on uh on on social media. uh so I think it's relevant there but I don't think it it really matters as far as the long-term trends are concerned.
Uh so for a long-term investor, I mean, yeah, try to buy, you know, if you know, a day like, you know, like today, gold's down like 50 bucks today, silver's down uh you know, maybe 50 cents, I forget, but you know, some of it is because uh they they they they uh they walk back uh the idea that there'd be tariffs on gold, right?
And so I think uh that might have been playing with the markets. Maybe some of it has to do with the fact that oh, there's going to be some talks uh peace talks going on between Russia and the US. Who knows if that's going to amount to anything. But I don't even think it's relevant for what's going to happen to the price of gold.
Uh but in the short run, uh the headlines kind of move the markets uh and cause traders or algorithms that are automatically trading. Maybe they've been programmed to watch for key announcements and then to automatically buy or sell based on on on that. Uh but I think if you get good down days, it's just, you know, an opportunity to continue to buy.
Okay. Let's put that investor hat on for a minute then. I mean, give some of the themes that you really like here. You talked about maybe silver a little more than gold at this stage, I guess. uh within the the emerging market or foreign market environment, any particular economies, markets that look more attractive to you than than less just based on uh you know in addition to the broader trend of the dollar falling and people shifting money overseas.
Yeah, you know, I think the emerging markets which have you know been lagging, I mean they're they're they're beating the S&P year to date, but they're not doing as well as as some of the mature markets a year to date. I think uh the initial move uh has been into the more developed markets uh and more of the value names, the higher dividend paying stocks, but I think by next year we're going to see a little bit more of a rotation in emerging markets.
And I and I think a lot of those economies are going to have the most to gain from the dollar's demise. I think a weak dollar is going to have uh the biggest positive impact on on their economies and on their financial financial markets. So I think that uh people should be looking towards those markets uh for 2020 uh 2026
within the mining space and material space in general anything in particular that you'd highlight as is probably being really attractive here? Well, I think all the metals prices are moving much much higher uh both the precious and the industrial metals. So, you know, I'm long stocks in in in both of those sectors.
And of course, some of the gold mining stocks now, you know, also have good exposure to copper, you know, and I'm bullish on both those metals. I think the mining stocks are behaving very well now. I mean, they had been trading uh weak uh for the last several years. I mean, they've been going up. Uh but, you know, when gold goes up, they haven't been going up as much as they should, and when gold corrects, they get killed.
Uh, so the sentiment has really not been there in the gold stocks, you know, despite the fact that starting, you know, today we're I think we're down a little bit, but we're still up about 70% on the year in the GDX. I mean, you would think that would be a good enough gain to get people to be optimistic.
But, you know, they they've still been uh very skeptical. We're climbing a wall of worry, but over the last week or so, the the the stocks are trading better and I think the sentiment is starting to turn and I think the back half of the year uh could be the strongest part of the year even though we're already up 70%, we could do it again from here.
Uh so I think there's a lot of upside potential in these stocks given how cheap they've been and how long they've been that cheap. Uh so there's still a lot of room to go and a lot of money could try to allocate into the sector and you know there's not there's not a lot of stock there and I think the stock that's owned is in pretty strong hands.
I mean I have no interest in selling any of my stock. Uh so uh you know they're going to have to bid much higher prices I think to find to find the sellers. Got it. Peter, you're going to be joining us for the 25 Money Show Traders Expo in Orlando. It's coming up this October. Uh, you know, it's still a few months away, so things can change, but your title of your presentation for now is the real crash.
Why the US dollar and treasuries are about to collapse? Uh, the name's pretty self-explanatory, but why don't you talk a little bit about, you know, what somebody who comes to that presentation is going to hear. And particularly, I'm interested on the the Treasury side of things. When do we start to see that real fallout in your opinion?
Well, you know, as I said, I think when the Fed starts cutting rates, which I do expect that to happen just because of the weakness in the economy, um, and when they go back to QE, which they'll also do because they won't get the reaction that they they need in the long end of the bond market, I think that will really expose uh the predicament that the country is in and that the Fed is in.
And uh I mean stagflation will be um entrenched into the US economy and I think our creditors are you know going to run and you're going to see a run on the bond market and on the dollar and and so you know we haven't seen anything like this I don't think since uh the early to mid 1970s. I mean we've had periods of time where the dollar has come under a lot of pressure.
Yeah. but not as much as it did back then. I mean, even though you know the dollar made new lows, I mean, it had a huge decline uh from 2001 to 2011ish that 10 years. I mean, the dollar index went from 120 down to about 70. And right now, we're barely below 100. We're about 97 98, you know, on the dollar index.
Uh but I think we have a precipitous decline. uh you know I think the dollar index is going to go to 40 maybe lower. I mean I think it's a long way down and I think it's going to have a profound impact on the American economy and on you know the American way of life and the standard of living of of typical Americans are going to be you know profoundly affected by this.
Peter W listen I really thank you appreciate your insights here. Um you know a lot of things people need to take into consideration in precious metals treasuries and more. So appreciate the time. V viewers, listeners, if you're watching or listening to the audio version of this, you don't want to miss out on what Peter's going to have to say in person.
He'll be speaking at that money show conference I mentioned October 16th to 18th in at the Omni Orlando Resort at Championsgate. You can find more information and a link to register in the description below. Peter, good speaking with you and I look forward to catching up October. All right, looking forward to seeing you guys there.
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