저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 켄 피셔는 장기적으로 대체로 강세 입장이며, 세계 톱다운 관점에서 미국 기술주 비중을 조절하고 해외 에너지 등을 살펴보라고 말한다. 투자 기본 원칙: 투자 기간이 길수록 주식 비중을 높여야 하며, 주식은 대체로 상승 편향이 있으므로 나쁜 이유가 없다면 강세를 유지해야 한다. 시장 심리: 존 템플턴의 말을 인용해 강세장은 비관에서 태어나 회의, 낙관을 거쳐 도취에서 끝난다고 설명한다. 예외는 가격에 반영되지 않은 큰 악재가 세계 경제를 흔들 때다. 글로벌 톱다운 접근: 현재 기술주가 시장을 주도하지만 기술주는 미국 중심이며, 기술주를 제외하면 미국과 비미국 수익률은 비슷하다. 따라서 해외 비중 확대 또는 미국 기술주 비중 조정을 고려할 수 있다. 종목 선정: 국가와 섹터를 먼저 정한 뒤 종목을 고르는 방식이다. 미국 기술주 대신 해외 에너지 등을 언급했고, 프라이스 투 세일즈 비율을 대중화했다고 밝힌다. 출연자 전망: 구체적 가격 목표나 개별 종목 매수·매도 지시는 없고, 장기 강세 성향과 지역·섹터 배분 관점이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
welcome to the Philadelphia money show I'm John Dobis from Forbes you don't need to know who this is but I'll tell you anyway Ken Fisher you've seen his face definitely if you have anything to do with financial television or magazines or online can't good to see you again great to see you John it's been a while I recall about eight years ago you when you were a columnist by the way ken was the longest running columnist in Forbes magazine having written every issue from 1984 July until 2017 so quite quite a run there Ken yeah but Ken came to town one time I was an editor working on the the investment colonists you're you were about 800 words you needed to be 750 I took some reference to poutine out because you were writing about Canada and you took umbrage and I thought ken was coming to town to kick my ass but you bought me coffee I think I take umbrage regularly I'm I'm an easy umbrage taker but anyway he's a good man I can vouch for his character anyway people people know that you hate annuities from the commercials they know that you can do better but give me the encapsulation of what your strategy is for investing in stocks so most people that invest have a longer time horizon than they think they have because people live longer and they have other purposes for their money and the longer the time horizon that somebody has for the usage of their money the more likely it is that they need higher equity exposure not all varies by individual circumstance but a longer time horizon the more likely you need higher equity exposure if you need equity exposure at all to the extent you do because stocks go up more at the time than they go down you should be bullish unless you have a good reason to be bearish most people tend to be bearish unless they can see a good reason to be most reason to be bearish so as John Templeton famously said bull markets are born on pessimism growing skepticism mature on optimism and die on euphoria and that's always true except for when it's not and when it's not is when you've got a big bad thing that's not been priced so it's surprises and it's big enough to take the global economy and turn it into Rock so the sewers yes it's only an 87 trillion dollar economy that takes something that's in the size of four trillion bucks it's big it's not little so you're looking for those two things and if you can't find one of those that everybody else hasn't pre-priced you ought to be bullish so most of the time I'm bullish and when I'm bullish I'm always thinking it's a global stock market I'm thinking global top-down so if you look at the world we're in today we're in a world where Tech's doing really well does leading market if you look at the world we're in today if you take tech out of the US market because tech is mostly a u.s.
phenomenon there's very little tech on a cap weighted basis outside of America or things that act like tech that aren't in the tech sector like Amazon and consumer discretionary or some of the Netflix type things that are tournaments are in the internet communication services area they don't consider tech when you look at those that's all American mostly there's very little if you take that out and you compare us to non-us the returns are very similar right the rest of the return the rest of America's returns very similar the rest of Europe's overall so then you shop around more outside of Americas you have to be overweight detect if you're overweight to tack or even underweight detect that's America relative to the world so you look around and that this is just the way I think would just top-down global okay and then parse down lower and then get to stock picking as the last step which you have excelled in over the years as well I mean the price to sales ratio is something that you popularized 30 years ago I believe in a book right not now five years maybe as we say on garment stocks 35 there's dogs so so the reality when I was a fourth columnist as I had this really lucky history of having my stock picks work out well which is part of the reason that I survived in Forbes so long because when you remember Lori Menard sure when Lori was there he started this process that had never been done before were they graded and measured all the columnist doc picks every year yes and put out the report card and my report card turned out pretty good most of the time and I had a very lucky history there and that's kind of the stock-picking part but the stock-picking part comes after the part where you purposely said first what kind of countries do I want to be in what kind of sectors do I want to be in do I want to be more in this kind of sector in this part of the world more in that kind of sector in that part of the world and that leads you down to a it's kind of like a way to sift through the haystack I got you get to where what parts of the haystack might have the best needles and then you start looking for the meat which irons and which silos have the best stuff and then you go looking for the right grain yeah so like you look at tech in America you wouldn't look at tech much overseas you'd look at right now energy overseas not in America Europe because the technologies that were in America that have been priced before America tied to fracking and all that are rippling out now could bringing down cost there and improving margins there and and so you you kind of pushed the world into the parts look to the categories it's like parsing the haystack so you don't have to go through as much of the hay to get to the needles and then you focus on the needles need neat needles after dealing with some of the hay down on the farm investing with Ken Fisher there we go thank you John thank you Ken
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