저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 경제 성과 주장은 과장이며, 실제로는 무역적자·재정적자가 오바마 2기보다 커져 버블 경제가 지속되고 있다는 결론 성장률 2.3%는 오바마 시기와 동일하나 더 많은 차입으로 달성된 '가짜 성장'이라고 주장 연준은 금리 인하와 사실상의 양적완화(QE+)로 방향을 되돌렸고, 대차대조표는 4조 달러 이상으로 증가 추세라고 설명 정상화 불가능: 과도한 부채 때문에 금리를 0% 근처로 유지할 수밖에 없으며, 이는 달러 약세와 인플레이션으로 이어질 것이라고 주장 현재 주식시장 상승은 실적이 아닌 유동성·인플레이션에 의한 것이며, 인플레이션은 결국 주식시장에서 슈퍼마켓으로 옮겨갈 것이라고 경고 정치적 시한폭탄: 트럼프가 '늪 빼기'와 부채 축소를 약속했으나 재정적자는 오히려 확대되었고, 다음 경제위기는 자본주의·규제완화·감세의 책임으로 몰려 사회주의 대통령 등장으로 이어질 수 있다고 전망 다음 위기는 서브프라임보다 훨씬 심각한 국가부채·통화 위기이며, 연준이 구제하기 어렵다고 주장 재정적자가 연 3~4조 달러로 확대되면 연준이 이를 monetize할 수밖에 없고, 금 가격은 훨씬 더 상승할 것이라고 전망 투자자는 포트폴리오를 조정해야 하며, 적절한 주식과 자산 유형을 선택해야 한다고 조언(구체 종목 언급 없음) 과거 2018년 말 연준 금리 인상 중단·인하를 예측했다고 강조
다듬은 글
all right so uh somebody saw the President's speech last night I guess that was the official kickoff of the Trump pre-election campaign masquerading as his miss State of the Union address but during about what a 90-minute speech the president basically claimed victory for having completely transformed America the years and years or decades of economic decay are now behind us and we are now experiencing an economic boom unlike the likes of which the world has never seen before except they have seen it before just before he was elected during Obama's second term there's basically no substantive difference oh you guys have short memories in fact the main difference between Trump's first term and Obama's second term is that the trade deficits and the budget deficits are larger now than they were then in fact if you remember the reason that candidate Donald Trump said that the American economy had been decaying was because we had large trade deficits and these large trade deficits had hollowed out American industry America's manufacturing base had been huddled out and we had replaced it with a service sector economy that was basically being sustained by debt and he was correct except the problem is the trade deficits are bigger now than before he was elected so if America's economy was in decay because of trade deficits which are now larger than they've ever been how are the years of decay over GDP growth last year was 2.3 percent how is that any different than the 2.3 percent we got under Barack Obama again the only difference is we had to borrow even more money to achieve the same level of fake GDP growth that we did under Obama the reality is nobody should be taking credit for the current US economy the question is who deserves the blame why has the morbid growth of the Obama era continued under Donald Trump the blame for the u.s.
bubble economy which is what it is belongs to the Federal Reserve the Federal Reserve is pursuing the same monetary policy that got Donald Trump elected see Donald Trump was elected because as a candidate he told the truth about the US economy he described it as a bubble he said it didn't matter that the stock market was going up because it was only going off because of the Fed because the Fed was keeping interest rates artificially low it was doing quantitative easing courtney donald trump the Fed was doing these political things just to make Obama look good but that in the long run that the paper wealth of a stock market meant nothing because eventually the bubble was going to pop and the stock market would come tumbling down see Donald Trump promised to change all that see he promised to make America great again by draining a swamp and eliminating the national debt he was going to get rid of it instead during his 90 minute campaign speech he never once mentioned the national debt in fact he never once challenged Congress to cut one dime of government spending which means Donald Trump is happy with all of the new welfare spending in all of the new warfare spending that is taking place under his administration I mean who needs to elect a socialist we got drop right he wants big government and he's happy for the Federal Reserve to print all the money necessary to pay for it in fact again when Trump was a candidate he was critical of the Fed the reason that he supposedly didn't read Amin eight Janet Yellen was because she was too easy she was doing QE she was keeping interest rates artificially low so we get Jerome Powell and what is Trump's criticism rates are too high they're one-and-a-half percent he was beating up the Fed because they weren't printing money fast enough now you know when I was here at the money show a year ago January right the Fed had raised rates in December and I was the only guy back then who said that the Fed was done raising rates that the very next thing that they would do would be to hike to cut rates in fact I was just in Vancouver but a week or two ago and I collected on a bet where a guy on the panel bet me that the Fed would raise rates and I said no they would cut rates well they didn't just cut them once they cut them three times and the reason that I knew that the Fed was going to do that was because the air had already started coming out of the bubble in the fourth quarter of 2018 we would already be in a severe recession but for the feds 180-degree turn on monetary policy but not only did the Fed start cutting rates but they also fulfilled another one of my forecasts which was that they would return to quantitative easing and that's exactly what they did except they don't want to admit that its quantitative easing no because they knew quantitative easing when the economy's in trouble and the Federal Reserve wants to pretend that the economy is doing fine so it's not calling quantitative easing quantitative easing but that's exactly what it is the only difference between the unofficial quantitative easing they're doing now and the official quantitative easing they were doing in the past is that now they're doing it even bigger if you look at the rate with which the Fed's balance sheet is expanding its expanding faster now when they're not doing quantitative easing then it was when they were so yeah maybe this isn't QE it's QE plus but of course you know quantitative easing was never really quantitative easing that's just a euphemism what is quantitative easing that's when a central bank creates money out of thin air inflation and uses the money to buy government debt to monetize government debt that's what the Fed was doing before Trump was elected and that's what the Fed is doing now since Trump's been elected because the debt bubble is much bigger today than it was then and the reason the Federal Reserve had to reverse course is because normalizing interest rates when you have an abnormally large amount of debt is impossible and that's what I was saying for years in fact before the Fed even tried raised interest rates because they were you know talking about the normalization process for years but before they even embarked on the journey I said it was impossible to finish that there is no way the Fed was ever going to be able to deliver on its promise to normalize rates and I was right they got to about two and a half percent and everything fell apart the auto market the housing market the stock market and then the Fed had to reverse course but it wasn't just on rates the Fed was doing quantitative tightening it was trying to shrink its balance sheet it had to abort that effort and now the balance sheet is back above four trillion and it's headed much much higher and you know the reason that QE and zero percent interest rates did not result in a dollar crisis when the Fed did it the first time the reason that the price of gold stopped going up when it hit nineteen hundred and pulled back to a thousand was because the Fed was able to fool everybody into believing that they actually had an exit strategy that this monetary policy was just temporary that they were actually gonna you know basically get everybody to take on all kinds of debt by bringing interest rates to zero and monetizing all this debt and then they were just gonna pull the rug out from under everything and everything was gonna be fine but what I was saying is that's impossible if you get everybody loaded up with debt the only way to sustain it is to keep those interest rates at zero and that's exactly what's happening the Fed is now proving me right by cutting interest rates long before they ever got to anywhere near normal and by going back to quantitative easing but it was the belief the false belief that these policies were temporary and that is what caused gold to fall that is what kept the dollar afloat soon people are going to realize that that is not the case that interest rates have to stay near zero or even negative forever and that the Fed's balance sheet is going to grow in perpetuity except that can't happen because then the dollar will collapse an inflation will take off not just in financial assets everybody is happy when inflationary monetary policy makes the stock market go up which is the only reason the stock market is going up earnings aren't rising it's just stock prices that are rising and that's because of the inflation that's being created but eventually all that full inflation moves from the stock market to the supermarket and that's when it becomes a big problem but a bigger problem that's now brewing is the political time bomb that is taking because I pointed out that the real important fact of the 2016 campaign was not that Trump won that was something that I thought would was not you know impossible to happen I mean I didn't know he was gonna win for sure but I thought he had a much better chance of winning than was generally perceived but what I looked at as the real movement was the popularity of Bernie Sanders on the left and the reason that Trump appealed to a lot of Democrats was again he told the truth about the US economy he pointed out that the government numbers were a fraud that the unemployment rate wasn't really as low as the official numbers led on Donald Trump said the real unemployment rate is 30 percent or 40 percent right and he accurately described the bubble and that the economy wasn't doing nearly as well as the administration claimed or as wall street claimed and so those comments struck a chord Trump is now in the opposite position he's not talking about draining a swamp he's now the swamp right he's now trying to sell the same BS economic data that Hillary Clinton was trying to sell on behalf of Barack Obama he wants a lot of people to think that the economy is booming when they know that it's not I mean I think there is some optimism I think there's some hope out there that things are gonna get better even though the indications are that they're not why are the budget deficits as large as they are if we really had a booming economy the deficits wouldn't be shrinking not growing Trump talks about manufacturing well as a share of employment Manufacturing represents a smaller share of the US economy now than it did before he was elected you know he's bragging about the fact that 70% of the jobs that have been created since he was elected you know were filled by women well one of the reason that women are getting so many jobs as the manufacturing jobs aren't there and a lot of the women who were working or married and have kids and they'd rather not work a lot of them are working because they have no choice because the economy isn't nearly as strong as the president claims and I think because Donald Trump failed to deliver on his promise that now I think the voters are likely to buy another false promise and that's one of socialism you know when the federal reserve's bubble popped on George Bush's watch we got Barack Obama right because everybody blamed capitalism they thought that the financial crisis of 2008 was a consequence of not enough government not enough regulation of unbridled capitalism even though the entire crisis was caused by the Federal Reserve pursuing the exact same monetary policy they're pursuing now the only difference is they're more reckless now than they were then the monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis has been far more reckless than the policy that preceded and caused the crisis but if capitalism got a black eye from the 2008 financial crisis this crisis could deliver the knockout blow and whether this new recession officially begins before the next election or after it's going to be blamed on Trump and what Trump stands for not necessarily what he practices but what he preaches which is less government capitalism free markets deregulations tax cuts that's what this next crisis is going to be blamed on and it doesn't matter again whether it happens before the 2020 election or after because the president who follows brock who follows donald trump whether he follows him or she follows him in 2021 or 2025 is gonna be a socialist because this next recession is going to be far worse than the Great Recession of 2008 and unlike that recession there is no way the Fed is going to bail anybody out because this is not just going to be about subprime mortgages or private mortgages this is going to be a sovereign debt crisis this is going to be a currency crisis see the Fed was able to bail out the economy or all the bad debt by buying it and substituting Treasury debt for mortgage debt when people wanted it and when people wanted dollars but when nobody wants Treasuries and nobody wants dollars because people finally understand what's going on and if we had record budget deficits under Donald Trump if the national debt was increasing by one point to one point four trillion per year under a Republican president in supposedly good times imagine what's going to happen to the budget deficits in a recession with a Democratic Socialist president and a sympathetic Congress what happens when we have three four trillion dollar a year budget deficits what happens when the Fed has to monetize that right gold went to 1900 an ounce when people were worried about what might happen well they're here to find out because it's going to happen even worse and the price of gold is going to go much much higher so people have to adjust their portfolios now you know back in 1999 2000 people were very excited about the stock market back in 2008 they were very excited about the stock market and then the market got cut in half and over you know more overvalued indexes like the Nasdaq was down 80 in 2000 we have a much bigger bubble now than we had then the difference is if you get this wrong the Fed is not going to bail you out there is a no bigger bubble that the Fed has up its sleeve because when it tries to revive the economy when it tries to revive the markets by printing more money the amount of money it's going to have to print is going to be a lethal overdose of inflation and so your portfolio had better be prepared you have to get into the right types of stocks the right types of assets and I'm gonna be talking about that I got my workshop tomorrow I think it's at 11 o'clock I don't know what room it's in but I have we have a booth so if you're not sure you could stop by the Europe Pacific booth I think my time is up all right no wait I got I got two and a half more minutes
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