저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 강세장 후반에는 대형 고품질주가 가장 좋은 성과를 내는 경향이 있으며, 현재 시장은 공포가 있어 오히려 긍정적이지만 아직 강세장 초기는 아니라는 견해. 시장 상황: 올해 시장은 1월 말까지 계속 상승하다가 이후 매도세가 나오며 조정을 겪었고, 이후 등락이 이어지고 있다. 당일 북한 관련 우려로 수백 포인트 하락. 투자자 심리: 사람들이 투자 시점과 매수 종목을 많이 묻고 있으며, 두려움이 존재한다. 워런 버핏의 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하고 두려워할 때 탐욕스러워라'는 원칙을 인용하며 현재 두려움은 좋은 신호라고 봄. 강세장 단계: 존 템플턴의 '이번엔 다르다'가 가장 위험한 말이라는 격언을 인용. 회의론이 줄고 낙관이 커지며 도취 단계로 가는 과정이며, 현재는 강세장 초입이 아니라고 판단. 종목 전략: 강세장 후반에는 작고 투기적인 종목이 아니라 크고 쉬운 고품질 대형주(기관·일반 투자자 모두 선호하는 종목)가 유리. 대형 고품질주는 시장 말기에 사서 말기에 빠져나오기도 쉬움. 애플 관련: 애플은 기술 기업이 아니라 기술을 활용해 소비재를 만드는 임의소비재 기업으로 봄. 포트폴리오: 자신이 좋아하는 자산이 부진할 때 잘 될 자산을 섞는 분산 전략(마코위츠식 기대수익·위험 최적화)을 강조. 과도한 분산이 아닌 음의 상관관계 자산 결합을 제안. 출연자 전망: 현재 강세장이 후반부로 가는 과정이라는 견해이며, 구체적 수치 목표는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
hi there Stephanie cameraman live at the Las Vegas money show and look who I have with me I have Ken Fisher Ken Fisher is here just for a couple hours and then you're flying back home yeah why not yes I'm glad I caught you I'm good mom is always good so I'm here with with Ken Fisher Fisher Investments and Ken you know this year has been crazy a little bit yeah well because the market was just going straight up straight up straight up straight up as really anybody could trade just threw a dart board any pullback we went higher pull back we went higher end of January everything changed sellers came in we had a bit of a correction and then we've just been kind of going like this today it was a little tumultuous as well did you see the market today that was down a couple hundred points North Korea backed out jitters people are scared I have a lot of people coming up to me personally and asking me should I put money to work is this a good time and and what do I buy do I buy Technology Warren Buffett right said he was jumping into Apple I don't like apples a technology company Apple for the consumer discretionary company okay right now Apple do it uses technology by Sumer to build consumer discretionary products and it's very good at that okay but I don't really think of it it's not creating core technology well you said an awful lot of the companies that are thought of as technology companies are actually something else by using technology as a tool rather than the more traditional world with built technology but fundamentally you said people are afraid people are fresh and go back and you you know said Warren Buffett is that you play on that if you want to do Warren Buffett would say you should be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when I think it's fearful and right now the fear that people have is a good thing not a bad thing we've had a big long ball market and as I said in my talk here you know my favorite personal pretty much all time in these regard for John Templeton you famously said hey the four most dangerous words in English language are it's different this time and be all markets are going on customers and growing skepticism mature and optimism and dieting for him and if you've got fear eternity for you and once you're in a bull market and you haven't gotten to euphoria you've got time and yet we're clearly not in the beginning of this bull market now what typically does best Leighton bull market what typically does look best like if you're not looking for Niels and haystack are the big easy things that people that are the last greatest fool to get into the market at the end or perm to wanna buy which are not little speculative crazy stuff it's Big Easy the other beautiful part about that I'm just categorically big my quality stocks typically read the last day people markets and the great thing about owning them in the last days of our markets is when the time comes to get out of them they're also the easiest to get out of okay so you have a saver married have children I don't want to pry not my children do you have favorite children above and beyond your other children my point exactly okay no I have two amazing unique they're all unique I don't have any children no no I had children but they became man I don't call them children or Amy hurt me they following in your footsteps Oh nobody in the right mind wants to follow my footsteps one of my son's works in the firm okay two of my sons do not one of them is a marketing guy and the as a planter geophysicist turned venture capitalists no connection idea but the reality of favorites is I think in sectors I think in owning some things I don't like that would do well if the things that I do like would do badly instead of well if an insurance policy right sure you're really going back to the basic concepts of Markowitz and Finance you want to blend together different things that bring up your total portfolio expected return Billups you expected risk and that means owning some of the things that would do really well if the things that you do well are not diversification but it's a plan form of not over diversifying how to do putting things together that are somehow negatively correlate well let's talk more about that when we come back in just a bit thank you Kevin thank you
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