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AMC 주식에 대한 강세 관점을 제시하며, 미시간 소비자심리 지수 하락과 켄 그리핀의 경기침체 경고를 시장 약세 신호로 해석하는 영상. 결론: AMC는 현재 가격대에서 리스크 대비 보상이 매력적이며, 9월 말 옵션만기 전후 시장 약세가 오히려 숏 포지션에 압박을 줄 수 있다고 봄. 시장 상황: 나스닥 약 -1.5%, S&P500 약세, AMC는 약 -1%로 상대적 강세. 미시간 소비자심리지수 67.7(예상 69.1 하회), 현재 여건 지수 69.8(예상 75.3 하회), 1년 기대인플레이션 3.5%→3.1%, 5년 기대인플레이션 2.7%로 하락. 진행자는 기대인플레이션 하락을 경기 약화 신호로 해석. 켄 그리핀 경고: 시타델 CEO 켄 그리핀이 CNBC에서 경제가 "매우 빠르게" 경기침체로 향하고 있다고 발언. 진행자는 시타델이 거래량 수수료로 수익을 얻으므로 발언의 이해상충 가능성을 언급하면서도, 시타델이 주문 흐름의 약 30%를 보유한 시장조성자로서 시장 상황을 가장 잘 아는 주체일 수 있다고 주장. 경기침체 대응: 경기침체 시기 현금 여력이 있는 투자자는 투자 기회로 활용 가능. 한편 신규 입사 등 경제 민감도가 높은 상황이라면 방어적 직종/업종으로 옮기거나 저축을 늘리는 것을 고려하라고 조언. AMC 숏 데이터: 공매도 잔고 약 2억 150만 주 수준 등 여러 수치를 제시하며 정확도에 의문을 표시. 플로트 대비 공매도 비율은 감소해 보이나 실제 순공매도는 증가했다고 해석. 차입비용 5.75%, 활용률 59.58%. 과거 대비 공매도 포지션의 비용 부담이 누적되어 일부 숏이 수익성 없을 수 있다고 주장. 옵션 포지셔닝: 9월 15일 만기 옵션은 콜 64%, 풋 36%. 9월 22일 만기는 풋 비중 84.5%로 약세 포지션 집중. 9월 29일 콜 오픈 인터레스트 66.5%. 10월 6일 만기 콜 우위. 풋/콜 비율은 연초 이후 약 2:1에서 1.26으로 하락해 최근 가장 낮은 수준. 9달러 행사가가 이번 주 중요한 가격대로 언급. FTD: 오늘 약 400만 주, 다음 주 월요일 약 450만 주 FTD 결제 예정으로, 옵션 활동과 함께 AMC 주가 상승 재료가 될 수 있다고 봄. 리스크/조건: 시장이 하락해 유동성과 매수 여력이 줄어들 경우 숏 커버링 압력이 생길 수 있다는 전제. 결국 구체적 촉매(Catalyst)가 필요하다고 명시. 목표가로 12달러(현재 대비 약 50% 상승)를 제시하며, 4달러 하락 가능성은 상대적으로 낮다고 판단. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 AMC 주가가 9월 하순 시장 약세 국면에서 상대적 강세를 보일 것이며, 다음 몇 주간 긍정적 흐름을 기대한다고 함.
다듬은 글
ladies and gentlemen welcome back to the channel AMC stock has done about one percent at the time of recording this video This is actually a very strong gay for AMC and we're gonna break down exactly why and what the heck is going on with this stock everything you need to know hit the like button and subscribe to the channel and Source your comments questions or concerns Down Below in the comment section so if you take a look at what's happening out there in the markets the s p not doing so great most stocks are not doing so great the NASDAQ is down about one and a half percent AMC's down less than the NASDAQ just being down one percent is a pretty good day these days frame see so what's going on what do you need to know well I think the number one thing to consider is the stock is in deep value territory it's no longer expensive it's no longer being valued as even a meme stock you're not getting the VA the volatility premium to AMC anymore so I do think you're at the point where the stock is just sold off so much that it's it's one of those situations where the risk to reward makes a lot of sense when the returns could still be very large like I said in the last video the odds of AMC going to twelve dollars per share increasing 50 from here rather than dropping another 50 percent down to four dollars per share on a pure valuation basis I mean what's what's the most likely outcome well obviously it would be a rally to 12.
since you've already fallen like 80 percent within the last couple of weeks and the stock is not going bankrupt unfortunately the shorts want to see the stock go bankrupt but that is not happening now um there's a couple things going on in the markets today and I think we should acknowledge that here now before we get into some of the other um things we're going to talk about in this video because I mean you guys deserve to know what's what's going on and why the markets are down so big um so Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 67.7 now this was better or worse than the estimate of 69.1 this is not good but it's not it's not it's not bad we're still much higher than we were before what's actually crazy is the one year inflation expectations went down to 3.1 percent this was a big drop from what we've seen at 3.5 percent for the past couple of months now why would inflation expectations fall in the one-year basis well if people are seeing or really maybe seeing other people but themselves not willing to pay higher prices well that would be a reason now the five-year inflation expectations went down to 2.7 this is more so a sign of a weak economy than it is just inflation expectations organically coming down because when inflation Falls you it's usually because of a recession usually when you get periods of really high inflation almost hyperinflation you have you tend to see recessions because eventually the purchasing power of individuals is so deteriorated that they're people just can't buy as many things and don't want to when they see prices way higher than they were in in recent memory so these drops in inflation expectations look like to me kind of fear in the economy and a sign that the economy is getting worse now the other thing to happen is the Michigan current conditions for September came in at 69.8 you were expecting 75.3 so not great okay just all around this survey was not good for the markets and it's a it's a big survey for the markets it's been running for 70 years and this seems to be a more kind of forward-looking survey because we're getting this data the survey for the month of September it's currently September 15th so this is not lagged data there's no revisions that really happen to this data this data is the data for the month of September sure there is some revisions like there is on all data points but not like the non-farm payrolls get revised a hundred thousand or so you know for an example uh so this very much recessionary okay um so just to you guys that are out there watching this video you really want to have your financial situation in check right now there could still be some time before uh massive layoffs start or just layoffs in general start um if you're in a relatively new job you might want to really consider uh getting into something that is less economically sensitive that's probably not a terrible idea right now it's not a terrible idea to save a little bit more money um it's not a terrible idea to put more money into your brokerage account waiting for stocks to ultimately ultimately fall remember recessions have created more millionaires than lottery winners times 10.
so recessions is really if you're capitalized for it usually a pretty not good thing but it's it's good for those you guys that have the money to be involved during a recession to invest during one and that looks to be the direction we're heading now I know you guys don't like this individual I don't like this individual nobody seems to like this individual But Ken Griffin yesterday you guys might have seen this um we were talking about it in the trading um Community if you guys want to join that link Down Below in the description of this video But Ken Griffin went on CNBC yesterday and said that essentially the economy is quote very quickly heading into a recession that's what he said now a couple things that stick out to me here Ken Griffin and Citadel gets paid for people trading so they want to see as much trading as possible very much incentivized to say things that will lead to as much trading as possible because I mean if if you come out and say there's a we're very quickly heading into a recession well that's not exactly very encouraging to your trading business Citadel right the market maker so there's a lot of speculation on why Ken Griffin said this I honestly think he did not mean to sound so honest I just don't and if if there's anyone out there let's think about this logically if there's anyone out there that knows what's going on or what's going to happen it is Citadel it is the market makers Citadel controls about 30 of the order flows and they have to keep a lot of capital on hand ever since 1987 and Black Monday when market makers failed and did not have enough Capital to backstop the markets and markets fell 20 in a single day and you know now you have halts for the markets to to basically give people time so they don't panic all of that stem from 1987 and Mark makers having not enough Capital to uh facilitate transactions to buy sell really keep the markets afloat so imagine it like this if the US government heard that something really bad was about to happen in China maybe all U.S companies were going to no longer be allowed to do business in China for an example this is just an example the first people the government would call are the market makers that's it it's the bottom line to it because they want to make sure at least our financial markets do not collapse off of this and go into a very deep recession so and I think you guys could probably agree with that so that was quite concerning for the markets I think a lot of people are digesting uh some of this data that we've gotten over the last couple of days but even on top of that the seasonality of September tends to work like this so today is quad witching that means that your option derivatives expire today across the board for basically all different kinds of of option derivatives now September as you've heard seasonally is a very weak month for the markets but actually up until quad witching tends to be pretty bullish in September as you can see from this chart from data from 1950 through 2021 tends to be pretty bullish what actually happens after quad witching which is the third Friday of the month that's where you tend to see the actual sell-off this happens for a couple of reasons a lot of hedge funds and institutions their calendar years end in October so that makes sense a lot of hedge funds sell and and all of that and then a lot of investors are just repositioning the trillions of dollars of of options right that just expired on that quad witching uh in September and and then you also have investors looking forward to 2024 putting on new Hedges things of that nature so for a lot of reasons the end of September tends to be pretty rough so if you're out there and you're not hedged in your portfolio maybe it's a good idea to do so that is what we are doing what we have been doing in the trading Community like I said if you guys want to join link Down Below in the description of this video but nonetheless let's go ahead and get into AMC a little bit more so um you do have a short score of 71 201.5 Million worth of short positions in AMC estimated short interest of Reflow at 15.7 percent free flow auto loan at 13.2 percent shares auto loan 26.11 million days to cover 2.18 cost to borrow 5.75 uh percent utilization of 59.58 so across the board you guys got to really take these numbers with a big grain of salt really I wouldn't even believe most of these numbers like look at the live short interest of Reflow the estimate is 12.74 the last exchange important number we got was 16 and a half percent so I mean the the numbers are moving around a lot and they're not accurate but I want you guys to also know that the short interest of Reflow looks like it fell from 29 down to 16 that is because simply simplest way to put this the float is larger because AMC just sold 40 million shares but the amount of shares sold short just went up at a record Pace it just went up 36 so the actual net short increased quite a bit so that's that's important to know and I do still think AMC stock is very much squeezable you just need to get something to actually do it you need to see a good Catalyst you need to see maybe weakness in the markets maybe that's what we need to see maybe that would be very beneficial to AMC in the second half of September if AMC can just do okay and see the markets come down that could restrict some liquidity and uh buying power out there and that could put some pressure on the shorts the shorts have been in their positions a long time a lot of shorts have you know these cost of borrow fees that have really eaten into their positions that maybe some of them are still not even profitable on their short position so that is kind of how I'm thinking about the situation think about it as you please let me know Down Below in the comment section how you are thinking about this um but yeah so the option activity we're not getting any data here but if you do look at the options that expire today 64 of the volume is calls and 36 percent is puts now I think it's more important to look at the next couple of weeks and strangely enough September 22nd is uh very negative as far as uh volume today 15 and a half percent of the call volume uh today 85 or 84 and a half percent of the total volume is puts so you're seeing a lot of bearish positioning for next week I think that's just maybe some hedging or maybe some institutional investors coming in there and taking out some positions we'll have to wait and see September 29th not nearly as bad 66 and a half percent uh open interest on the call side 33 and a half percent open interest on the put side volume today of 63 now the next biggest option expiration is October 6th I know that's not a huge option expiration but it's the next biggest one you have 60 1.3 percent open interest on the call side 38.7 open interest on the put side so all in all this this week uh is is pretty bullish right uh next week is very bearish and then the following weeks are bullish after that so we'll ultimately have to wait and see what happens um but when you net this out people are looking pretty uh bullish compared to what we've seen recently and if you look at the put to call ratio over here we'll go ahead and blow this this chart up so everyone can see I mean the put the call ratio was really just at Sky High levels from January until today essentially and you were at a high of almost two puts for every one call now you're back down to 1.26 on the put to call ratio the lowest level we've been at in quite a long time so this just shows you the overall barometer on option positioning from hedge funds and institutions guys so uh there is that the stock go tracker data for this Friday you got about 68 500 calls currently in the money 207 000 calls out the money 114 000 puts in the money and 270 000 puts that are currently out of the money so a decent amount of option activity this week um and a decent amount of calls and puts honestly expiring and the money a little bit more call puts obviously but we'll see what happens towards the end of the day today nine dollars is a pretty important um strike for this week but I do expect a lot of this dollar amount kind of these options to flow back into next week and the following week expirations also the next really multiple weeks October 20th looks like it's going to be your next major option expiration but next week already has some sizable numbers about 14 000 calls currently in the money 55 000 calls out the money thirteen thousand puts in the money and a hundred and thirteen thousand puts that are out of the money so a decent amount of option activity and then you also do have a lot of ftds millions around four million ftds that come due today and about four and a half million ftds that come due um Coming uh next Monday so it's gonna be a lot of option A lot of failure to deliver activity that could fuel um you know even more ftds to come with some of the option activity that we are seeing and for whatever reason hedge funds institutions Mark makers they love to have fdds on AMC so I do still think like I said look at the out performance today of AMC compared to the broader markets it's Stellar I mean AMC is doing phenomenal today um so you you really want to pay attention to these bad days in the market and how AMC stock is doing if I were to guess AMC stock in versus the market and could have a pretty good um next you know couple of weeks would be my expectation and again the risk reward profile of AMC looks really good at these current levels so that's gonna do it for this video hit that like button subscribe to the channel and Source your comments questions or concerns Down Below in the comment section we have a lot more to discuss in the next video so stay tuned for that one thank you for watching enjoy the rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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