저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세 정책이 달러 패권과 대미 동맹을 약화시키고 있다는 주장. 중국·러시아·이란·북한 간 결속과 디달러화(거래의 달러·유로 비중 55~80%→20~25%)를 근거로 제시. 관세는 세수 확보 목적으로 장기화될 가능성, 기업 투자 발표는 관세 압박에 따른 것으로 평가, 미국 경기 둔화·침체 위험 경고. 중간에 하우스핵 비상장 투자 광고 포함. 특정 자산 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
This Wednesday is obviously going to be a really big day because it's technically America's liberation day, which some side of Donald Trump's administration now suggests should be a federal holiday as soon as 2026. That's right. Rather than celebrating Donald Trump's birthday as a national holiday, they would instead celebrate April 2nd, Liberation Day, for the day that we transform our economy.
The problem with this is not only in the basis of tariffs, but what's actually happening with international alliances that should be a cause for everyone's concern. Obviously, we already know the basics. We know that we're expecting 25% tariffs on vehicles, vehicle components, although there's a 30-day delay for some of the components, lumber, which could affect things like toilet paper or pharmaceuticals.
to be determined what happens there. We know that Japan is quote weighing every option and Canadian uh you know PM Mark or to be potentially elected Mark Carney will quote a fight a UF US US tariffs with our own retalatory tariffs to inflict quote maximum impact against the United States with minimal impact against Canadians.
France says the only choice is to raise tariffs themselves and harm both economies. The European Union is going to safeguard their interest. Mexico wants to beg for preferential treatment probably because they're going into recession. And the UK plans to retaliate at the same time as now all of a sudden we have to be worried about Crank.
this block of countries, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea with an economy the size of the European Union aggregating together and potentially using their might to counter the strength of not just Europe, but also the United States. And so, there's a lot going on here. This week is a lot more than just April 2nd and this announcement of tariffs.
It's really what happens as a result of the fundamental transformation of Trump doubling down on this idea that we went too small in the first administration. We regret listening to people who told us to go for smaller tariffs during the first Trump administration. Let's now make bigger, more aggressive moves.
These are the talks that are going on inside of the Trump White House. Just this weekend, White House leaks are suggesting that quote, "He has also said he thinks he made mistakes in allowing advisers to talk him out of bigger tariffs and signaling to his staffers that he wants even more aggressive tariffs as an ongoing source of federal revenue.
not a one-time negotiated solution that lowers tariffs elsewhere and goes back to free trade, but rather doubles and triples down on the idea that no, no, no, tariffs are going to be a source of revenue. Of course, the sales pitch is, hey, if we have enough revenue, then maybe 93% of Americans who make under $150,000 per year don't even have to file a tax return because there won't be any kind of taxation.
And there'll be so much winning again that everybody will get a $5,000 Doge dividend check, which given that 80% of Americans can't afford a $1,000 oopsy dupes that pops up, that would cover about five oopsy dupsies, which is a good amount of money. But the problem is, what are we creating in terms of international alliances?
I personally have been worried about what I jokingly call NAFTA. It's I haven't thought of any good acronym for this, but basically this coalition of countries like Canada, Mexico, European countries, basically the entire European Union, all bonding together to create a uh sort of trade block that has free trade amongst them, but taxes trade with America.
And it's also possible that this group could actually partner with countries like China because China, they're doing the opposite of the United States right now. They realize that 2022 was a pretty significant slowdown, recessionary period of time for them. And so they're stimulating their way out. They're looking to stimulate just like we did in 2009 with a cash for clunkers cars program or even do cell phone tradein programs.
Uh these are all considerations to basically get the Chinese consumer spending again. But the point is it's the exact opposite of what we have here, which is let's get the government to spend less. Now, I'm not picking sides. I'm simply giving you the facts. Not only is China considering these stimulative measures, but they're also raising their hand saying, "Hey, who wants to do free trade with China?
We're available. We'd love to do free trade with you. No need to worry about tariffs. If you free if you freely trade with us, we will freely trade with you." Uh, and this is sort of a a very different message from what we're getting from the Trump administration, which is, nah, you know what? We actually might want to even go back to talk around a universal tariff.
This is something that was briefly floated and hasn't gotten a lot of attention, but now White House leakers are suggesting it's back. The idea or the prospect of a universal tariff that applies as sort of an entrance fee to open the door to trade with America is coming. Uh, and really what typically tariffs do is they increase costs for uh, goods and service suppliers, but they also increase costs for consumers.
Now, how much of that actually shows up in inflation in the face of a deflationary environment? You know, that's all a discussion for debate. But what's more important is we're already starting to see a unified China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. In fact, China this morning said something that should scare you.
China posted or Chinese a you know a Chinese statebacked news group posted that in response to the Hong Kong group GK Hutchinson planning to sell ports near the Panama Canal to Black Rockck. They made a post saying this would be like handing a knife to the enemy. Now that post was quickly deleted, but Reuters picked it up immediately and posted about it and said that China is basically showing their hand here a little bit saying don't give America that weapon of the uh you know Panama Canal that is giving a knife to the US and they are the enemy.
And so you have to start thinking to yourself whether that little example there is what was intended or not. The post is deleted now so it's hard to know. You have to remember that there is an east versus west situation in the global geopolitical space that you have to think about when it comes to war.
Now usually the west has been very united. The United Kingdom, the European Union led by the industrial countries like France and Germany and of course supported by the others Spain, Italy, Greece doesn't matter. Canada, Mexico, the United States, the United Kingdom altogether have usually worked in coordination with countries like Japan and South Korea to counter the threat of North Korea, China, uh, Russia.
But what we're doing now through tariffs is we're actually basically putting up a middle finger to our European allies and to our Canadian allies, to some extent, our Mexican allies, but also potentially our Japanese allies. All of the long-term alliances that we have built and the sort of the coalition of the West are falling apart in part due to these tariff concerns.
Now, of course, that is an opinion. Who knows? Maybe maybe everything is secretly still totally fine. But here are some of the facts. China has a mutual defense treaty with North Korea. Iran and North Korea, they have a relationship that is one considered of um how should you put it? Friendship and cooperation.
So, we know North Korea and Iran get along. We know China and North Korea get along. Russia and China, they have what's called a no limits friendship. Russia and Iran supported the Assad regime together. Iranian manufacturers manufacture drones in Iran and in Russia for Russian use against Ukraine. Beyond this, you have to remember that all of them together have interests in standing up to the interests of the United States.
North Korea has sent 12,000 soldiers and weapons to Russia. The Russia Ukraine war is galvanizing supply chains and increasing trade between crank members. It's also leading to more of a ddollarization. This dd dollararization is extremely evident given that when you look at imports and exports and in terms of what currency is being used the vast majority of it used to be the US dollar vast majority of that trade used here I'll show you on screen used to consist of US dollars you know the red here being the Chinese yuan or the remenbby system you've got the Russian ruble here and the dollar and euro here in this light gray and you can see the dollar and euro used to be 20 to 25ish% % or sorry is now a 20 to 25ish% but it used to be somewhere around 55 to 80%.
So the United States and Europe are getting squeezed out of Crink. And see, one of the ideas that we could sort of use to minimize uh some of this sort of Russian integration with China is by striking a deal with Russia and separately a deal with China. So we can strengthen our relationship with these individual members in opposition to countries like Iran.
But we need to do that sooner rather than later. But what's actually happening is we're pissing off China more with the moves in the CA Panama Canal. And I'm not taking a side as to whether or not we should or should not have more international security in different parts of the world such as the Panama Canal or off of Greenland.
I'm not making an opinion on simply providing a fact that China's pissed about it and it's probably driving the relationship between the United States and China further apart. But what's also happening is when you look at Greenland, Russia is somewhat freaking out over this because as we know Donald Trump pitches Greenland as necessary for well frankly international security.
And so what is Russia saying? They're going to increase their troop presence in the polar regions of the Arctic to increase their national security efforts. And remember, these are not small countries that we're talking about. When you combine the GDP of China, North Korea, Iran, and Russia, you have an economy that's equivalent in size to Europe.
In addition to that, when we look at our economy with Europe, we look really good. Hey, now we're twice the size of Crink. But if we look at our economy versus again my phrase NAFTA, Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Japan, South Korea, them uniting against us. Well, now you have this sort of three-party system that actually makes the United States net much weaker than where we have been in the past.
Now, a lot of this relates very much to Ukraine. So you have to incorporate Ukraine into this because frankly South Korea just helped squeeze Ukraine out of Russia. But what's also happening is thei is the Ukrainians are getting pressured into really what's considered an unappealing deal to Ukraine because we already know that Ukraine does not trust Russia.
Right now there has been a temporary ceasefire that has been accepted along with agreements that there are going to be continued negotiations. Certainly a far cry from the war is going to be over in 24 hours. But those of us that were paying attention knew that was just marketing. I'm not justifying it.
I'm simply saying it was Fugazi from the first time we heard it. And it still is. Russia right now is seizing opportunities against Ukraine, though, demanding re-entrance to Swift while basically agreeing to a ceasefire in the Black Sea. But this a small give up for the demands that Russia is making, especially since the Ukrainian minerals deal basically thrown up into the air.
And now there's talk about the United States demanding Ukraine sign a security deal where the United States guess what provides no security. The only part that's has anything to do with security in the deal is the United States gets control of the minerals and energy and oil inside of Ukraine. Now it would look like a partnership with 50% of profits going to Ukraine and 50% to the United States and sort of a way of repaying the United States for their aid.
But the United States would appoint three out of five board members and the United States would have full veto power. So basically the United States would have 100% control even though technically only receiving about 50% of the dividends while not providing security guarantees for the Ukrainians that they would actually aid and support the Ukrainians in the event Russians defaulted on their pledges, which is exactly what the Ukrainians are afraid is going to happen.
Now, Donald Trump is golfing with the president of Finland, which is probably just going to continue to galvanize uh Putin's interest in deploying more troops above Greenland because, well, guess what? Donald Trump is asking for more icebreaker support. And I'm not talking about the mints. If I was going to place an ad here, it would sound something like, "Hey, check out househack.com.
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Now, going back to ice breakers, what Finland is actually doing is they're telling you, look, we'll give you more ice breakers. We want coordination and partnership with the United States. And what Donald Trump is saying is, yep, good. We're going to need them because we're going to be present in the polar regions more.
And that's why Russia is saying, well, so will we then. So, I want you to think for a moment. This liberation week is much more than just tariff liberation. This idea that other people are going to pay for our debts. It sounds really nice in sort of an optimistic, you know, glorious scenario where everybody could not have to pay or file an income tax under $150,000 of income, which would be fantastic for a lot of folks.
But from a practical nature, we would probably have to see tariffs in excess of 25 to 30% across the board on almost all trade uh products to see the amount of revenue that we would need to be able to offset those tax revenues. Now, sure, we could also cut government spending, but you know, we've got some more work to do with Doge.
So, let's see how it goes. Might have a lot more work to do to get to those levels because remember, it's not just cutting the expenses once. you have to cut them over and over and over again, which means the idea of free trade anytime soon under Trump might actually be further out than we're expecting.
And you're seeing a lot of Wall Street analysts finally waking up to realizing this is not just a negotiating tactic anymore. Donald Trump truly sees this as a way to increase revenues for uh the United States economy, for the United States taxpayer, and also bring manufacturing jobs to America. The problem is the time that it takes to get those manufacturing jobs to America and to somehow guarantee that those jobs that are created are actually still going to be competitive on a global scale on an international scale when other factories in let's say China are facing deflation or willing to do things for a tenth of the cost that we can do them here then we really have to ask ourselves are we setting up America to be internationally competitive or are we propping up a vision of an all-American American future that is really on a toothpick foundation that collapses or worse collapse is just under the mere uncertainty of all of that.
Now, I don't necessarily think that the United States is going to collapse anytime soon. And I'm not trying to make this seem like, oh my gosh, a World War II sort of issue. But when you start putting all these pieces of the puzzle together and we start realizing these investment decisions or announcements that are being made from corporations are really just a way to bend the knee to Trump and they're not actually a sign of true investment, at least not anytime soon.
Because why would you in the face of all this uncertainty? Why not wait? So of course that's what they'll do. Uh and ultimately what you're doing is creating the conditions which have in many parts already been present. So I should say you're accelerating the conditions for a recession which unfortunately would be substantially worse for people as many more millions potentially tens of millions of people more lose their jobs and overall revenues stagnate or collapse at many businesses.
Remember, over half of jobs in America are created by the small the small business, maybe another 15 to 20% by medium-sized businesses. A lot of these businesses are coming under severe strain due to debt, high interest payments, stagnating revenues, and a slowing cyclical economy. The reason we call it cyclical is because guess what?
Goes up and it goes down. It usually doesn't go from up to slow and then back up again. But who knows, maybe that'll happen. The CBO doesn't think so. With our debt to GDP likely to reach 107% in 2029, exceeding our 1940 peak and then rising to 156% debt to GDP by 2055. That was some news that we just got out this morning.
Yeah. Well, technically it was yesterday, but anyway, a lot of folks actually saw it this morning and read and researched it this morning. But anyway, uh when you think about Liberation Day this week, uh April 2nd, don't just think about the retalatory tariffs. I want you to think about our international relationships with all of these other countries and how critical they are in standing up to cran.
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