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미시간대 기대지수 급락과 애틀랜타 연은 GDPNow 하향(약 0.5%)으로 1분기 마이너스 GDP 가능성을 지적하며 경기침체 우려를 강조. 신용부도스왑(CDS) 스프레드 급등은 2022년 이후 최대 수준이라며 충격 신호로 해석. UBS는 주가가 펀더멘털보다 앞서 하락했다고 보며 전술적 반등을 예상하나 정책 불확실성이 해소되어야 지속 가능하다고 봄. 소커젠은 200일 이동평균선 아래에서 저가매수에 신중할 것을 권고. 관세로 인한 멕시코 경기침체 가능성도 언급. 화자 본인은 강세/약세 척도에서 약세 쪽(2.9/10)이라고 표현.

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01. today's obviously a red day in the stock market but a lot of Institutions on Wall Street are saying don't worry this is just a Slowdown it's oversold and it's not something you should be worried about I'm going to go through what Wells Fargo just talked about UBS just talked about what Bloomberg talks about uh and we'll give a little bit of historical comparisons and context to this sort of selloff that we're seeing in markets and how it might fit into the future because right now the future at least in terms of expectations H doesn't look that bright at least based on expectations of consumers the University of Michigan a final read for marches out from the preliminary report two weeks ago it came in worse than the preliminary report from two weeks ago and the summary is here that quote expectations have plunged a precipitous 18% from February now losing more than 30% since November this occurred across all demographic and political affiliation including Republicans joining Independents and Democrats in expressing worsening expectations since February for their personal finances business conditions unemployment and inflation nearly two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise this now the highest reading since 2009 and the highest inflation expectations since November of 2022 however seeing this five handle on the year ahead expectations isn't actually what's most concerning what's most concerning is right here the long end of the needle has become unanchored well to some extent at least remember every time Jerome Powell talks to us he tells us hey the good news is inflation expectations are still well anchored you realize that is actually a critical component of Federal Reserve monetary policy Transmission in English for things to stay good the FED wants you to believe that things are going to be good cuz they realize there's a transmission from expectations to what reality is and this is why we've regularly heard Jerome Powell tell us it's okay it's okay long run inflation expectations remain well anchored if you've ever watched a single fed meeting you know that's what he says it's not what he sounds like that's someone else but you know what he says and this de anchoring right here is an early warning signed now I mean Jal could sort of cast this aside and say oh yeah it doesn't matter you know it's it's just a one Monon read that could go away next month if we come up with a tariff re resolution which is true so I expect them to sort of cast this aside for a while it's interesting this morning in our course member live stream remember you can join the membership over at meetkevin.com before the price goes up uh and you lock in that price forever but this morning we were talking about how stagflation usually ends in recession and it makes logical sense when you have stag flation you usually break that with higher rates until you break inflation completely and that usually is what results into a negative growth shock and therefore you end up with negative GDP now so far this is just bad news I said we were going to talk about how it's overblown and buy the dip in just a moment and we're going to do that but first I have to pile on a little bit more bad not because I want to but because the data is what it is you know I I already know people do the whole like oh but but Kev you're just trying to be a bear uh no actually just report the news with what I think is a relatively neutral perspective that 80% of people can enjoy and if you know some extreme edges don't like it well I'm sure they'll let me know in the comments but I'll keep trying to provide as much of the truth as possible and the truth right now at least according to the Atlanta fed real GDP indicator which has been pretty damn accurate so far is telling us that the data we just got has actually worsened the outlook for q1 see just yesterday the Atlanta fed gold adjusted GDP now indicator was sitting at positive.

02. 2% that was revised down from the positive. 4% on the gold adjusted GDP now now this is actually sunk to .5% which means right now GDP estimates for the first quarter which the first quarter ends you know in two days here or three days is is basically trending negative which isn't great uh because that could set up for potentially a second quarter of negative GDP as well and that's when we have technically a technical recession the question is will people continue to spend through it so far the upshot is that the answer has been Yes Federal Reserve officials are right to say that people are still according to credit card spending data spending well a lot of this hearkens to the JP Morgan credit card spend data from uh from from March but I have a problem with using the JP Morgan credit card spending data because it does not represent a broad swath of the American Consumer it represents a uh sliver of a wealthier cohort of of banked individuals you know there are non- banked individuals there are uh you know individuals who are banked at completely different institutions uh regardless of their net worth and there are just some people who can't even open the door at JPM because well frankly their credit card standards are too high it's too restrictive to open up an account there for for credit card spending purposes so we' talked about this before and when we look at the the granular details of the JP Morgan spending data we also find that it's really gen Z and Millennials that are propping up where uh credit card spending whereas genx and boomers are basically flat to barely growing uh and this isn't even inflation adjusted yet then we'd be negative but the problem with that is the people who have actually been through hard times before who've personally lost a home or you know uh lost throughout a recession or lost a job or whatever th those are or lost a business my goodness those are people who are scarred and I think those are the folks who are starting to pull back on spending you know I I pulled back last July because I'm like uh this isn't good youall already know that we're going to get to some of the good news in just a moment uh but we were also talking in the course live this morning about how uh part of that may be because of my scarring as a child when you know we basically went from having nothing to finally having a pool home in a nice neighborhood because business was doing well uh and then losing my childhood home and I know the feeling the scar that is inside of me and how horrible that is to basically get rug pulled and go from a neighborhood with family and friends and and and a nice sort of normal American lifestyle you know basically into small apartment we could barely afford and losing our car because not only well did it break down but then when when we fixed it and then we couldn't make the payments on anymore and we lost that and I started walking to school which I mean fine you know people had to do that in history too but I'm just saying those scars they last and I think that's why you could see a generational divide between older Millennials genx and Boomers compared to gen Z who has only ever lived through by the de all all right so Bloomberg though and this is where we get to some of the upshot Bloomberg suggests look the labor Market's still okay okay we've heard that argument a million times before when the labor market rolls over it's too late okay when when every company starts announcing 20% layoffs because there's some Shock you're not going to care about the unemployment claims data you're not going to care about the next month's BLS labor report you'll already know you'll already know that we're in the poops and it's too l late at that point you can't wait for that data it's it's lagging data right so you know Bloomberg suggests hey there is also a risk though of utilizing these sentiment surveys because with the sentiment surveys they don't necessarily forast what the stock market is going to do there's a very weak correlation there's actually more of a correlation with negative sentiment and stocks going up so that is an argument people use for buy the dip it's like hey well people are fearful you should buy but the question is people might be fearful is blood on the streets now UBS says H equities might be getting ahead of themselves a little bit with the sell-off UBS has a whole piece out on how equities are pricing ahead of fundamentals uh however UBS does argue that the fundamentals are deteriorating so you know we have to be aware that you know while we could say Hey you know maybe we're just getting ahead of ourselves here and we're overpricing uh some of this adjustment here it's worth remembering that companies generate earnings and the reasons they have the valuations that they do is because of projections for earnings uh so here's the UBS piece where they suggest the market pricing derating is ahead of fundamentals right now so in other words the sell-off has gone too far they actually expect a tactical recovery however they see concerns about renewed weakness unless earnings expectations stabilize and policy uncertainty abates so in other words while we could have a oh wow cor weave shares open at $39 versus the IPO price of 40 oh man that's going to be entertaining uh especially since Nvidia is backstopping them at 40 I don't like that one I made a couple videos on it over the last few days I'm like I don't know folks this this could be a canary we we'll see we'll see usually the IPOs pop though you know you do the face ripping oh 50% up on IP day anyway so this is interesting from UBS because what they're really telling you is in order for you to really believe that the stock market is going to sustainably stay up you need not only earnings expectations to stabilize but you also need policy uncertainty to slow and I think that uncertainty is why at least in part uh you know quick update on on the house act fundraising we're we're almost at 3 million bucks in a week which is is pretty incredible uh if we include the r d probably I mean that's that's pretty incredible for less than a week and we haven't even done our dedicated video yet on on the main Channel that's pretty good you know it was just it was within the first what was it like 36 hours or whatever we broke seven figures now now we're about to cross 3 million bucks already for this uncertain of a market I think it's a signed people are really looking to diversify so so for us we look at that and we're like okay that's like six wedge deals you know six wedge deals it's like we could turn that into 600 K of of profit on that right that's our goal uh anyway check out house Haack over at house.com but that's just a little update for you I think it's incredible I mean we we tripled our first week uh or sorry our first you know 36- hour period of fundraising within the first week pretty incredible so it's only we're only on day seven now of of mentioning that the non accredited round is available at house.com read that you know read the disclosures and the offering circulars and all that uh but it's kind of cool uh and it's just crazy because it's happening in this environment where where stocks are selling off so much I think it's because people realize you know we we are a hedge to this Equity Market Insanity you get 5% all of the upside and downside protection you know 5% yield plus upside and Stu it's a good deal that's why I put $5 million of my own money into you know the the November round which obviously I'm not counting as part of this right here so um this idea though about earnings expectations stabilizing it's it's tough because really not only do you need the Tariff War to to calm but you really also need analysts to be able to determine the impact of whatever tariffs we settle on on individual companies and that can sometimes be a little bit more challenging one thing that I think is very interesting is there was some commentary about tariffs this morning uh and the commentary on tariffs this morning was oh yeah right here so it had to do with BMW raising prices and there was an individual that said oh it looks like BMW is only raising prices by about 4% on these various different models and I replied to that tweet and uh or post whatever you want to call it uh and um Donald Trump right now saying we'll absolutely follow through with tariff promise on Canada however things are going to work out very well with Canada we had a very good talk with Carney all right well those up updates are pushing I think the cues just a smidgen back up I will absolutely follow through with tariff promise on Canada yeah interesting but anyway the what's what's worth remembering is these numbers showing you an increase of about 4% on 25% tariffs is not the way to think about it this 4% increase is actually on 0% of a tariff because remember Vehicles sit in inventory for about 2 to 3 months and when Vehicles sit in inventory for 2 to 3 months especially you know a pre- tariff stock up you might actually have more than than two to 3 months of inventory built up those Vehicles getting their prices increased by 4% is actually a 4% increase on zero so just wait you know when the full impact of us tariffs plus European retaliatory tariffs plus us retaliatory retaliatory tariffs hit not ideal now I hope we go back to free trade and I actually project that we will go back to free trade at some point either during the Trump Administration we will go back to free trade or within the first 6 months of if Trump doesn't do free you know get bring free trade back then probably the first six months of what will likely be a democratic Administration in 2028 but uh what's fascinating here is sock gen uh had some some talks about this as well they say uh let's see here oh they were talking about how Canada is looking to go back to free trade within Canada itself and how there's a 250 billion dollar opportunity within Canada to go back to free trade uh and they really talk about how hey you know free trade is the direction to go and there are benefits within countries and of course for the United States and the globe as well and eventually I think the expectation for everyone is that we will get to free trade maybe this is just sort of a means to get to the end I don't know know if they justify the yet but we'll see however that said unlike UBS sock gen is a little bit more bearish uh in fact their headline is that they quote caution investors about buying the dip at the 200 day moving average which is interesting usually I like to buy when all of the analysts are panicking and so far I don't see a lot of analysts panicking but sock gen is a little negative you know they they say uh here what do they got hence when the USS b500 uh Dove below its 200 day moving average in early March investor nervous increase nervousness increased markedly as did recession fears we may well be in a new bare market and the recent Rally from March 13th back above the 200 day moving average may prove to only be a technical Rally from very oversold levels certainly bull bear sentiment indicators were extremely washed out and crying for a rally if the market fails to hold above the 200 day moving average you can expect recession chatter to quickly resurface wow okay well obviously a little bit on on the bearish side there uh but then again there is a lot of enthusiasm I mean if you turn on CNBC it's almost daily I mean I shouldn't even say daily it's almost like minute by minute that all you hear is people talking about oh you know you know valuations have already come down it's time to buy the dip Maybe maybe it is but depends is it right for you is the question here is just so you know what the I'm using the uh spy um ETF here as a as a way of proxying the S&P 500 uh and you can see the 200 day moving average right here this Orange Line uh 200 day moving average right now sits at about 570 so we're a little bit below that right now on the day moving average uh you can see we tried to break above it but so far we failed to hold it which opinion brings us right back to this 550 line speaking of which with the lines would you look at this in this morning's Alpha report that I sent to course members uh I mentioned that if we lose 476 on the q's we'd probably go to 469 and we literally did exactly that we lost I mean we literally plowed through 476 and went through to uh 47 469 and then on Tesla what's remarkable is that I mentioned if we lose uh the 274 line over here we could be touching 260 which is crazy because look at this we got within 10 cents of the 260 line remember you can get all those with the meetkevin membership over at meetkevin.com uh okay so there's more though there's there's there's a lot more to this that's worth discussing uh and it's important to pay attention to this the durable good orders and some of the latest data have started leading to an increase in credit default swaps some people refer to this as the uh as as basically credit spreads now if you zoom all the way back out to 2013 you could see we're nowhere near at the shock levels we've previously seen but you usually don't see these Peaks until you're actually in a real shock what's worth noting though is that this rise in credit default swap spreads is the highest level that we've seen in terms of a spike since the beginning of 2022 when we started raising rates so it's not that this is way lower than these because the shock is just beginning it's a way of showing you that a big shock is beginning one similar to what we saw when the FED decided to start raising rates and getting bearish at the beginning of 2022 you're seeing a similar Spike now uh and this is the high yield credit default swap fiveyear spread okay in English the Bros are demanding more insurance against junk bonds defaulting or high yielding corporates defaulting okay that was English now let's go fifth grade level yo people buying more Insurance cuz they think things about to break down okay so um it's interesting uh this is this is this is really just started within the last few days here and it's something that I pay attention to uh because this is the highest Spike since the beginning of 2022 uh and and it's easy to sort of you know wash that aside because you do have UBS suggesting that indicators such as pmis and leading indicators like the CIS don't yet really reflect a recession however market-based measures suggest there is an uptake in recession risk and Wells Fargo says that q1 is setting up to be quote ugly but maybe it's not that bad because February inventories don't indicate that stocking up yet okay well let's be real the inventory measures that we got this week are from February when did the trade War really get bad March so if the trade War really got bad in March and Wells Fargo's like ah q1's not that bad because inventory build up in February it wasn't that big of a deal bro what are you guys analyzing like you I know we've been talking about terce forever but when did it really get bad March what where Where Have You Been Wells Fargo anyway remember business is very simple when PP goes down pricing power goes down margins at businesses go down and then layoffs follow it's a cycle eventually PP will go up again I'm very happy that eventually PP is going to go up again now sometimes there are people who would rather have no PP than small PP so otherwise though it's a cycle you get PP down and then PP Goes Up Cycle all right so we talked about Atlanta fed we talked about credit default swaps we talked about UBS we talked about W Fargo we talked about Bloomberg you can see just how noisy this is there's there's a lot of this especially since you've got this talk about Donald Trump potentially in almost authoritarian way threatening companies not to raise prices because of the the you know vehicle trade War which I think is kind of ludicrous because you know the the trade War imbalances that we're creating are insane I mean look at this chart here cutting it off a little bit there we go look at this chart I mean Trump this is U uh this just shows you an example of trade balance here uh the black line is our trade balance and it it plummets massively into deficit over here because now we're importing even more we're actually making the trade problem worse because we're like oh my gosh quickly import more before tariffs actually exacerbating the shock right now of course you know as we've talked about before the argument is uh you know Donald Trump is going to um you know detox the economy the problem is how much damage is that going to cause to be determined so we'll see Mexico's economy by the way way is almost certainly going to go into recession in the fourth quarter they already shrank you know 6% in January they're at like negative .2% some of that is due to structural changes inside of Mexico budget defic deficits Cuts uh to fiscal spending 2% of GDP Cuts you know some of the largest levels of cutting that they've wanted to do uh constitutional reforms you know they're trying to change a lot but they're just pointing the finger at Trump I mean it's an easy thing for Claudia shinberg to do because you know trade with Mexico or exports from Mexico make up 35% of the Mexican economy so you need those usmca exports so of course tariffs disproportionately affect Mexico but they just worsen something that's already been been getting bad so Trump doesn't deserve the full blame for a Mexican recession uh but Claudia shinberg is going to say it's all Trump's fault but then again she's a politician and that's what you would expect them to do there I've got honestly since 2021 I've gotten so disappointed uh in politics that it it's just on a daily basis becomes more and more disgusting to me I don't I don't know if it's because you know like as I get older you know then I was a youthful 29-year-old now I'm 33 you know oh those four years make a big difference but uh yeah kind of crazy so anyway uh yeah that's a little bit of an update in terms of why the hell the markting of selling off the way it is and uh you know trying to provide a little bit of a balanced take there but uh I mean you know where I stand on the bull bear scale I'm like a 29 and it ain't getting better uh it's certainly I haven't seen it cross five you know since the Nike Swoosh days uh but um we'll see how it all goes we keep bringing dat to you so thanks for watching