저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
2023년 시장은 평균 이상 성적을 낼 가능성이 있다는 낙관론이다. 근거: 하이일드 스프레드 안정·반등, 변동성(VIX) 하락 전망, 연준 긴축 사이클은 이미 주가에 상당 부분 반영(고점 대비 약 20% 하락). 인플레이션: 최근 3개월 근원 PCE·CPI 연율 약 2.5%로 목표 근처, 2월 FOMC가 전환점이 될 수 있음. 실적: 2023년 실적 감소 예상이나 주가는 보통 실적 추정치 바닥 12개월 전 바닥. 4분기 7개 섹터 실적 감소 전망(리피니티브). 섹터: 경기민감주(산업재)가 상대적으로 유리, 에너지는 2020년부터 선호 섹터 유지. 기술주는 달러 약세·금리 하락·인력부족에 따른 투자 확대로 깜짝 상승 가능성. 리스크: 연준이 더 오래 긴축 유지 시 소프트랜딩 아닌 경기침체·금융위기 가능. 임금상승 재가속(애틀랜타 연준 임금추적지표)이 핵심 위험. 출연자 전망 요약: 2023년 S&P500 강세 가능성, 기술주 반등 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
Michael yes I in fact I heard your comments about 20 years and I think that's spot on that you know the the question we have to ask in 2023 is you know what is the probability the market has an above average year uh you know number one I think it has a lot to do with credit markets which uh as you know spreads have been stabilizing and rallying a year after high yield has a negative year which is this year the average gains 22 you know I think volatility which was really elevated this year historically drops uh more than 20 in a year where it's averaged over 25 and typically the market gains are over 20 percent and for those who think the fed's going to crush the market one thing to keep in mind is that historically from Peak to Max drawdown when the FED starts a hike cycle and then pauses the average drawdown is 18 Peak to pause and then you know when the market finally buys we've already fallen 20 so we've already discounted a Fed tightening cycle and that's where I think inflation becomes the big pivot because you know for the last three months inflation's annualized around two and a half percent I think that the February fomc is really the time where the FED could true up and actually it looks like we're an adultish trajectory and I think that would be a huge Catalyst for markets when you say that uh inflation has annualized you know in the last few months uh near the target I guess you're talking about core pce I assume uh on that on that message yeah you can correct core you can do core CPI um or core pce both have annualized at two points roughly two and a half percent yeah gotcha um and I guess the question then is does that just uh leave us open to be concerned about what the economy actually is able to offer the lagged effect of the tightening all the leading indicators of inflation of recession that seemed to be taking shape not all that's shaping up you know because on the one hand you know people who pick stocks focus on the earnings decline but as you know when we look at and I used to be a stock analyst if if 2023 is a year where earnings are declining but they've Rebound in 2024 well one markets begin to look through that and in fact on average stocks bottom 12 months before earnings estimates bottom so one of the things we have to wonder is is this an extended earnings contraction that isn't already discounted by a 20 decline it's an interesting stat and it's certainly key as we talk about an earnings recession looking at fourth quarter and going into 2023 I think you've got seven of the s p sectors expected to see earnings contract in Q4 that's according to refinitive uh where where would you be putting money to work right now Tom given the fact that this is uncertain and given the fact that you personally last I checked I think have a street high in terms of where the s p ends next year uh yeah I think it's um I think that the like the least controversial view to make is that uh cyclicals could begin to work because as you know we've already had a pretty big decline in pmis and uh that would be Industrials I think that's a that's going to be a more consensus View I think one of the less and I think energy still works um you know that's been our favorite sector since 2020 but I think one of the groups that could surprise us is technology and I know investors have just taken a beating this year on Tech um but there's really two reasons number one uh Tech is going to benefit from things that potentially happen near a bottom like the dollar weakening uh the FED pausing and rates falling that's just simply uh you know has to do with valuation but more importantly as we think about the structural problem of Labor shortage which is going to continue the historical solution has always been for companies to increase their investment in industrial and Technology spend to create productivity so so Tech actually might have a talent because of a weaker Dollar in the sort of upside as companies begin to try to invest their way out of wage inflation Tom what do you see is the single biggest risk to your thesis next year well I remains that the FED has to stay tighter and therefore it actually does it doesn't lead to a soft Landing leads to an outright recession and and maybe even a financial crisis so I think the thing that remains the biggest risk is if wages actually accelerate that wage growth even looking at the sticky Atlanta fed wage tracker that's beginning to Plateau even three-month annualizes lower than it was six months ago so if that begins to accelerate then it means the FED has a lot more wood to chop and that that raises the risk yeah uh clearly that is the uh the higher for longer uh and tighter than we're hoping for the markets hoping for scenario Tom uh good to talk to you thanks very much Happy New Year
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