저자: Henry · 외국인
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테슬라 연초 대비 40% 상승 후에도 2025년 주가 400달러 도달을 주장. 근거: 자율주행(소프트웨어) 가치가 자동차 판매보다 크고, 트럼프 행정부 하 자율주행 규제 완화와 관세 협상 수혜 기대. 전기차 세액공제(7,500달러) 폐지 우려는 인정. 실행으로 2025년 9월 만기 330 콜 LEAP 매수(자금 5%), 390 콜 매도로 비용 절감 계획. 현재 주가 342달러 가정.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock is up over 40% year-to date and a lot of my students are asking me is it still okay to buy Tesla stock and how do I maximize my profits and make the most amount of money right now on Tesla stock using option even though Tesla stock is up a significant amount I found a very big reason I think you need to pay attention to that is actually going to make Tesla rise more up to $400 per share in 2025 in my opinion I just sat down and over a few hours of time researching Tesla I redid my price Target and I'm going to show you why I think Tesla is worth this much I'm also going to show you a leap option and how to profit off of Tesla here in the next few months now look I know that some people don't have enough time so if you want a one minute summary and you have to balance out of this video totally understand you need to leave here's a one minute summary okay first Tesla stock will go to $400 per share due to self-driving and having a bigger impact Tesla stock will go up to $400 per share due to self-driving having a bigger impact than Car Sales themselves second thing I'm going to cover is Elon Musk will influence Trump and the White House as they develop the relationship and I think there's going to be two really good freebies for Tesla one of them is going to be regulatory favoritism the other one is going to be trade and tariff um negotiations that are going to help Tesla a lot now three the actual play I'm going to make in this video is going to be buying a leap option at 330 strike price I'm going to personally put 5% of my money into this leap option play on Tesla and the expiration will be for September 2025 so I'm going to go out till September 2025 and buy a leap option and most likely I'm also going to sell some calls to subsidize and make the leap cheaper but nonetheless I'm bullish so I'm going to be buying the 330 call option and I believe Tesla is going to go to 400 and uh and the last one is I just want to wrap up the little summary here it's going to be pretty clear guidance for me personally that Tesla is going to have disproportionate returns here in uh the rest of 20124 and going into 2025 I think we'll see $400 per share in the first quarter or the second quarter of 2 so there's my summary if you don't have time go ahead go bounce and do your do your thing and I'll see you see you guys later but uh for the folks that have time let's jump into the full explanation right so by the way the portfolio is doing really well we're at $4 million so that's amazing I'm going to open up Tesla right now and go to my position here on Tesla and Tesla's currently trading at $342 per share I do have a th000 shares which is about 8 and a half% of my portfolio I have 1,000 shares at $118 this is a play that I put out in Discord I'm currently up $125,000 and I have several different option plays one that I recently opened up is actually a sellp put position but I'm actually going to open up a new leap play in this video so you guys are really in store for some for some really good sauce here on how to make more money now I first want to cover before I go into like what I'm going to do I want to tell you why I'm going to do it because I think it's really important you need to understand why I'm doing certain things so then you can be a better investor and make more money and and reach retirement and hit hit the goals that you want to hit all right so here's the reasoning why first of all I'm going to I'm looking at my notes Here regulatory favorit ISM for EVS okay that's the first reason I have that I think you need to pay attention to and Elon Musk guys it's not even a question he is going to impact Donald Trump in in the white house why do you think they're they're buddies right typically people are actually not usually friends unless they have a joint benefit to each other okay even you and your friend you probably help each other whether it's laughing or money or whatever when two people come together it's for a reason and politics is for money politics is straight up money I Al actually think Democrats Republican same side they're just making money on us right really clear so why is Elon Musk becoming buddy buddy with Trump well the reason is can you guess it it's money all right real simple real straightforward Elon Musk could influence Trump to maintain or enhance policies that support EV such as infrastructure Investments guys as an example that's EV charging networks that's a really big deal because I have a friend who has a Tesla and he doesn't really enjoy driving long distance because you have to plan ahead so when there's more charging networks when there better cost Better Price win win win win across the consumer and Tesla as a company that's a really big deal guys telling you that's going to be a really big thing it's going to streamline I think if Trump streamlines regulations more specifically for autonomous driving that's going to be a game changer that's going to be a complete Game Changer because autonomous driving not I don't even I can't even say this is an opinion it's just basically a fact the price of earnings multiple on autonomous driving since it's like a software um Revenue stream is going to be way more valuable than the core car business when Tesla sells a car okay that justifies is one multiple but the reason why they are going to hit a $2 trillion market cap and this company is going to crush it is because of AI autonomous driving and all of these software trends that we see software guys goes for multiples that are way higher than traditional businesses and that's why from the very beginning Tesla has been valued more than GM and all these Legacy automakers um because software has better margins way better recurring margins High margins okay so that's the first thing right now was second thing for regulations is trade and tariff negotiations all right must could leverage his influence to push for favorable trade agreements or reduce tariffs okay reduced tariffs also going to be a really big deal because that EV tax CRA credit of $7,500 or so is going to go away so right now musk has to be quick he has to be really quick the timing has to be impeccable because as these EV tax credits go away the Tesla vehicle is you know in certain States right it's not in every state but it's going to be a less favorable option for for the consumer to pick so if they if Tesla wants the consumer to still go for Tesla then they obviously need the pricing to make sense economics has to make sense okay economics pretty much has to make sense in everything unless unless you're talking about love and even still in love most people still marry for money and most people are still you know relationships are still based on money so everything is literally based on money politics business relationships everything right YouTube all the YouTubers that copy me in my content they're doing it for money many of them learn as an example right everything's about money guys and I need you to understand you need to plan accordingly and you need to be smart because the smarter you are and the more you understand how the economy actually works and how the individual company works on a micro level yeah there's two different things there's micro and macro right I'm hitting you with a lot of facts right now because I'm literally trying to take your trading level to the next to absolutely retirement level right to 10K mon 20K month etc for free on this YouTube channel you don't have to pay for nothing I'm I'm making my free content better than people's paid content because that's my mission that's my goal here so if you appreciate that mission and goal please go ahead and subscribe all right so look let me stop rambling let me get to the point I'm just trying to give you the full picture lowering Tesla's production cost is a really big key for Elon Musk this man is a businessman this man is an influencer this man has a personal brand something that you guys don't think about all the time but everyone in YouTube has a personal brand I'm just being honest with that's how it works Elon Musk is a personal brand he has his own initiatives he has his own plan he has a way of marketing Elon Musk personally has more followers on Twitter or X right then Tesla itself so he is a personal brand and the way he's trying to influence the White House is basically to get the production cost of Tesla lower why because you have more economies of scale economies of scale is basically economics 101 okay if you didn't go to college for business school and you're an engineer doctor dentist lawyer that's a majority of my clients which I understand that's why you're watching my videos you're coming to me as I'm an expert in the field worked at Goldman Sachs have a degree in this stuff economy a scale is basically when a company can produce more vehicles in the the more or produce any good right any good or service and the more it produces the lower the cost gets and the lower the cost gets the better because they can fulfill that product or service at a lower cost beating all of the competition so Tesla wants to do this because if they can lower their cost they can pass that lower cost on to the end consumer and they can lower the price of Tesla vehicle uh price per per vehicle or price per service for the autonomous driving or for the insurance that they have or for lots of different products that they have and services that they will have in the future and if it's cheaper it's going to make economic sense for the consumer to take action on that right it's pretty pretty simple to be honest it's really really simple why he's doing this right now look um here's a Quick Clip 90 seconds I need you to watch this because I've already mentioned another video but I want to explain it to you in a different way Tom Naran right um he is an analyst and he said it perfectly he said that autonomous driving and new regulations will change the landscape for Tesla and justify the valuation easily easily okay watch this quick 90 second clip and then I'm going to explain it to you Tesla shares though popping today on a report that said that the Trump Administration is planning to ease Federal rules on self-driving driving Vehicles now this follows news on Friday that Trump's team is also reportedly planning to kill the $7,500 tax credit for Ev purchases so joining us now is Tom nian of RBC Capital markets Tom it's great to have you on let's start right there what's going to matter more for Tesla and for the vehicle market and any of these AI plays that might be attached to autonomous driving is it going to be uh a different regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles or is it going to be taking away uh that that tax credit what's going to matter more yeah it's going to be giving uh less regulatory restrictions on Robo taxis definitely uh Federal restrictions was one of the big reasons why GM uh stopped making its origin uh purpose-built vehicle right that allows you to make a vehicle without pedals and steering wheels so you need that Federal deregulation if you were to call it a policy framework in order to allow for that that's what the Tesla cyber cab is why is that important it cuts down a lot of costs right you know currently the competition is you know wh Mo you guys talked about that uh it has pedals steering wheels it's another car it's another car company making the vehicle right so if you can make your own vehicle at lower costs doesn't have steering wheels or pedals you can bring down the cost and Tesla's argument is they can actually gobble up market share and if you look at autonomy and AI Etc that comes at a much higher multiple you have a trillion plus dollar market cap for Tesla you know is are you going to get there with an auto business for selling more cars or through AI autonomy right so autonomy is the way they can justify that market cap more they can from selling cars all right guys the last thing that he said there was auto business or AI autonomy which do you think is going to be worth more of course of course AI autonomy guys AI autonomy is going to be worth so much more as I said in the beginning of this video than than just traditional Legacy you know cars okay Tesla's not a car company Tesla has been mistaken for a car company this is an autonomous driving company this is an AI company this is a data company all the things that I've covered on this channel with Nvidia paler I'm in Tesla for the same reasons guys it's really simple here right I'm in this company for the same reason so so look I think autonomy is going to make a lot of sense and I think we're going to see $400 per share in early to mid 2025 now what I want to do is I want to go over a leap option I've explained to you why I've explained to you what I've explained to you everything now I'm just going to show you what I'm actually going to do and I'm going to buy some leap options now real quick if you are a beginner to leap options or you probably see it all over the YouTube right now it's a super popular topic right I wonder why I've been covering leap options for a number of years now but leap options um let me explain to you three three three simple ways of how how a leap option works while you want to do it number one guys is lower Capital requirements leap options are super powerful because you can basically control the same amount of shares okay when you buy a leap option is buying a call option you can control the same amount of shares for a lot cheaper of a price so as I show you let me actually get into this example right now um let me go to trade Tesla options and I'm going to buy the 330 I already said in the beginning I'm going to do the 330 for September I'm going to go to September expiration because a leap option is something around 9 months uh you know thereabouts one year by definition probably one year or longer but a leap option is simply a call option that goes out further in terms of date so don't don't let anyone confuse you or make it complicated it's not all right now Tesla if you were to buy 100 shares would be $350 per share would be $35,000 now if you buy a 330 call option then you only paying about $8,400 here okay and you get the same benefit so you get to put up about 1/4 of the price all right so 1/4 of the price is fantastic and that's how you put up the lower Capital upfront you get the same ownership and you and it provides you a very costeffective way of owning 100 shares now the second thing I want to cover which is what I've been saying for a long time guys right now it's really easy to make money hand over fist guys I'm buying all these companies I'm making money bicep over tricep as I say but okay there is going to be a pullback at some point don't ask me when and if someone tells you when there's going to be a pullback that person is a complete 100% scammer they're scamming okay no nobody knows not even the smartest people so look instead of me trying to predict the future which I can't do I've made a lot of money by not predicting the future but by playing options in a safe way I'm always trying to use less Capital make more money and reduce risk okay these are the three things I always tell students as soon as they join my one-on-one coaching the first thing I say is I ask them their goals and everything and then we go over the three the three foundations okay we got time money risk the third one nobody talks about nobody talks about risk management nobody talks about managing positions the way I do because I've actually worked at Goldman Sachs and I have a I have a lot of experience when it comes to risk management guys you think I didn't want to blow up my portfolio you think uh in my 20s when I started gaining a bunch of wealth 100K 200k portfolio you think I didn't want to double down on some certain positions and just go to the Moon I did but I didn't do that guys I'm not not one of these guys out here that's going to let go of my long-term vision for my short-term wants I'm going for what I need I already hit what I need so I'm just having fun at this point teaching cuz I want to teach and I enjoy this this is what I very passionate about but you think I didn't want to do it when I had 100K when I didn't want to work anymore in in corporate when I didn't want to you know when I wanted to have a nicer apartment when I wanted to travel you think I didn't want to make it faster I did but I and I would say I did make it pretty quick I had a year when I had 100K to 700k and I've already went over that story in several of my videos if you if you watch them but it's not about that guys you want to limit your risk it's time money and risk all right so with the leap strategy you can really reduce your risk because when you're buying a leap you Ma your maximum loss is really limited to the leap option uh premium that you pay in this example it is going to be roughly $8,400 so you know that is a lot less than having to put up a 100 shares which is going to be around the $35,000 Mark so here it's a lot cheaper and it's a lot more efficient so that's why I like the limited risk nature of leaps and now the third thing is I said there's three things is there's just an extended time Horizon so leap can look like shares it can really look like shares if you buy a long-term leap it's really function fing in the same way if I expand this option right here this Delta is 66 so it's not as high as 70 or 75 as I usually say but it's close enough you're getting a lot of benefit if the stock goes up to 400 so basically it'll go up by $50 and this option right here will be $50 times the 66 Delta all right so that's going to be about $33 higher $33 higher I did that math in my head real quick really love math back in in uh in school $33 is going to be how much this option would rise and because that $33 is actually a lot of money on $84 so if Tesla goes up by 50 this option increases by 33 33 you know you know as a portion to$ 8,400 so$ 3,300 is what you would make on $8,400 that would be like around 40% return or so 40% or so return but you know if you do the math if Tesla goes up by 50 bucks you know that's really only a 15% return or so on the Tesla stock so had you had Tesla stock you would make about 15% but if you have this leap option you're going to make about 40% so you have almost a 3X leverage Factor here with the leap option you get almost 3x the same return if you were to use the same capital or basically you can think about as you're able to use oneir or you know about 40% of the capital so instead of you know putting out you know 35k you're only putting out 8,400 to get the same benefit and if the stock moves up you get huge you get huge benefits you can close at any time that's also what I want to point out you guys do not have to hold until expiration the reason why I have a Discord Community is because obviously it is a case-by case basis I can't just blanket statement say do this with this situation because the situations vary and the market does pull back and we do get bare markets and we do have changes in volatility and we do have sometimes bad volume or bad bid ass spread we have there's so many things to consider and I'm trying to educate you guys as much as possible but simply said leap options just make a lot of sense if I wanted to reduce the cost of a leap option I would simply sell call options to reduce the price you can pick various different expiration days so I can go for August I can go for June I can go for May one is not better than the other guys option trading is all about choices and preferences all right it really depends on your risk appetite uh for me let's just say we're going to go for March 21st I'll give you this example right here this about 115 days out and this is the time frame I'm going to use because I said I think in q1 we could reach 400 but you know it could be a little bit early in q1 so I'm comfortable enough to to go for something like the 390 uh call option right here so if I sell this call option I will collect $3,000 and I can reduce my cost down to only $5,000 you know give or take $52.90 so by reducing my cost here to 52.90 or $5,300 that's fantastic because now I get even a bigger leverage effect than I mentioned earlier for more help with your option trading feel free to reach out to me in the first link in the description I do one-on-one coaching I actually have a few spots available so it's actually really interesting I do do my zoom calls with you one-on-one I go over your portfolio and I also give you all my trades so you know I won't make this too much of any sales pitch I don't really care if you want help please reach out and it please just keep watching the videos I got everything for you here that I'm teaching uh to take you to the next level and if you want to actually improve at leap options I also covered leap options in this video right here
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