저자: Henry · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 후 주가가 크게 오르지 않은 것은 기대치 선반영 때문이라고 설명. 엔비디아는 장기적으로 더 오를 것으로 보고 커버드콜·풋매도 등 옵션 전략(휠 전략)으로 수익을 내는 방법을 제시. 주가가 두 배가 될 수 있다고 주장하나 시기는 예측 불가라고 함. 자신의 포트폴리오가 400만 달러라고 주장하며 자신의 옵션 코칭 프로그램을 홍보.
다듬은 글
Nvidia reported some big numbers and I have an idea what's going to happen next in December before earnings I correctly predicted by saying this mark my words what's going to happen is NVIDIA will beat earnings but the stock won't rise too much because expectations already baked in so what will happen next let's explain why earnings did not make a really big dent in the stock and while the earnings were so fantastic yet the stock didn't move exactly as I mentioned and most importantly what do we do next and how do we make more money on Nvidia going forward that's the most important thing in our mind and that's the most important thing that we care about is how do we make more money in this market so that's exactly what I'm going to cover in this video I'm going to show you a couple of plays we're going to dive into my portfolio by the way my portfolio just hit $4 million as you can see on the screen right now we have $4 million $1,000 so exactly as we've been making money hand over fist guys bicep over tricep I haven't hit the gym it's been been a lot of work lately and some travel so I'm in a new location but look long story short let me just get to the point here I respect your time the whole point here is NVIDIA had earnings the stock didn't really rise that much which is exactly what I thought would happen so I'm going to pull up Nvidia right in front of you and I'm going to show you my my position here let's see if you guys like this format this really raw format of me filming videos but you guys already know you get my authentic self no matter what 14177 and and this stock really didn't pump anywhere right so I'm fairly flat on the stock in this portfolio I've had nid for ages and ages um but I started a new position by selling puts by doing covered calls as you guys can see here on the screen I have several positions which have all done very well I mean I recommended doing 15 uh3 and 155 covered calls those did not hit in the money I have the 148 uh covered call which is also making money I 132 put which is making money so there has been several positions here which um have been making money sorry if I have my finger my fingers in your face it feels a little bit weird we'll see what happens with this video's comment I'm trying a new style here in my hotel guys I I'm going I'm going to look at my notes right here so excuse me if I'm not looking at the camera so look I I don't think they they really mattered for the stock too much even though they had good earnings guys it's all about expectations and the expectations were already High guys so like I'm saying the most important thing that you need to understand is that the stock market is an expectations game nobody actually cares how well the stock did nobody actually cares about anything other than what they personally expect because the shock factor is exactly what makes a stock rise or makes it fall it's all about emotions the market isn't really a science and that's why in my Discord Community when I do my Monday and Wednesday uh trading sessions I always say guys listen here's the facts here's what I see here's here's my the the facts but here is also my opinion here's my intuition because I've been doing this for 10 years that's what makes me the top option coach in the world is I have the biggest experience and sometimes I do make my decisions based on hey I think this is what I'm seeing from other folks I'm taking an eye I'm looking at other people because this game is all an expectations game it's pretty common sense if you can understand social velocity which I am always tracking I'm tracking social velocity very heavily and actually this Market that we're in right now is is honestly a purely social velocity and momentum-driven Market there's not a whole lot of science going on if you look at some of these companies they have really high priced earnings ratios and they don't always really make a lot of sense a lot of these mag s stocks actually don't make sense on paper which is why you need you need someone or you need yourself to understand why this company is going up so much so look I said I I track social velocity a lot but I also want to point out and I want to show you a quick clip of Bank of America Vivic Arya as he explains it really perfectly this is going to be a one minute clip I said what do you think the disappointment is here I mean there was disappointment is that yeah the supply chain um you know is scrutinized very closely uh it's followed by a lot of uh people and every time the company uh reports uh expectations continue to uh build up naturally for this size and what the stock has uh done uh but there are always constraints uh when it comes to uh not just getting the supply but actually building the products getting them uh to customers and what we have seen from Nvidia over the last two years is that uh they are able to beat their own guidance by two to2 and a half billion dollars consistently you know last time they guided 32 and a half billion and they reported 35 billion so that's why I'm not surprised to see uh them not exactly come to the high end of where the whisper expectations are but if I look at the usual range of Beats they have we will come pretty close I think once they actually uh report the quarter so I think this is more a case of you know expectations in a transitions quarter uh it's nothing to do with the long-term fundamentals of the company all right guys so look uh keeping this video short as possible I'm going to wrap up with my notes here and then I'm going to jump into the stock and how I'm planning to how I'm planning to trade Nvidia stock H my my fingers in in the in the in the in the camera shop Nvidia I'm going to probably do a couple of things I'm going to sell covered calls and pretty much continue to run the wheel strategy and I do have some cash and collateral here it is before Market open but I am going to open up this position because I am light on Nvidia in my current portfolio so I am going to open up a position on it now look to finish up with my notes I think expectations Drive the stock market period hands down period end of story okay and nvidia's recent earnings are a textbook are a textbook all right smiling right here a text textbook example and case which you guys have to learn and never make this mistake again okay I wouldn't call it a mistake cuz we're still making money with the stock going sideways but if you bought you know a lot of call options or if you're really aggressive and buying options in the market Market that is a mistake especially for a company that has already the highest expectations possible like everyone is already in the stock so that's why selling options is so profitable on on Nvidia and I think we're going to get a lot of upward movement on Nvidia this stock is going to double but it might take some time like it's it's late November right I think in 2025 we're going to see this stock basically it could double it could double you just can't time it don't time the market be on the trend be on the trend like you guys need get rich overnight no you don't get rich for sure like Uncle Henry right here we're at $4 million right I thought I would hit this in January and February I hit it earlier that's what happens when you ask for Less you get more when you ask for more you get less that just seems to be the case with with how life works all right so look Nvidia success in AI is no secret guys and the Traders were anticipating that these results would happen well in advance right a lot of if you look at nvidia's history it just continues to beat so uh Traders know it's going to beat that's why I told you it's going to beat I was I never try to predict too much in this in my videos but I literally predicted Nvidia because it's not hard to predict it's not that I'm a genius it's just that I have a lot of experience so I I can tell what's going to happen right and I can't predict it but with Nvidia it was it was easy it was easy so guys moving forward the real opportunity lies in identifying whether Nvidia can deliver unexpected upside okay unexpected not expected if it's expected it's expected it's nothing special unexpected in areas like new AI Partnerships or accelerating demand and key markets in the future that's where I think the answer if you ask me can Nvidia surprise again and again and to the upside I think the answer is yes it can and I think that's why the stock is going to double and that's why I'm going to show you some specific option plays in just a second but look if you want to know how long I don't know because that's a Fool's game to play it's a Fool's game to play of when Nvidia will rise a whole lot that's just a Fool's game I just know it will I don't know when all right we're going to have to find a scammer to tell you when I don't know when that's that's just a scammy thing nobody knows when not no no professional okay now look I've been in this game for a decade and money is really easy if you know how to analyze and properly analyze a stock and properly analyze the option and long term is where it's at because great companies like Nvidia Thrive over the long term right what happens is they keep growing their revenue because they keep gaining contracts and customers and business and they keep innovating and they either they grab more market share or you know the mar the pie is growing right all the Fang other stocks are buying Nvidia gpus so Nvidia could technically lose a little bit of market share but if the pi continues to expand and get a lot larger then that's also fine that's how a company grows they just need to make more Revenue now listen after Revenue they need to make more earnings in bottom line profits so that is going to happen naturally and Nvidia has some insanely High profit margins okay really really high profit margin in fact it's so high that you may see some government regulation down the road saying that it's a monopoly okay we don't have to worry about that right now we are going to think how do we make money today and how what's the future look like yes they may have some regulatory issues down the road potentially but that's not something to be really concerned about all right so relax there I'm just trying to give you guys an objective view of the good and the bad because I want you guys to have the full picture all right so last but not least here's what we will do I'm going to jump into my portfolio and uh let's go to uh I'm going to sell a put option I already have a put option that I have sold I'm going to tell you what a good entry is I would probably go for two different expiration days okay one is going to be um one is going to be December 20th and other one will be uh January guys I'm buying this thing hand over fist bicep over tricep all right got to hit the gym a little bit but you know this thing is doing really well it's doing really well and it doesn't have to go to the Moon to make a lot of money I'm doing just fine growing my portfolio to $4 million and a big part of that is just options expiring on Nvidia and just you know monthly expirations so I'm going to sell a put and I'm going to go for something a little bit more aggressive now that earnings have come in we have had an IV Crush okay an IV Crush let me explain to you lots of Education in this video all right and Ivy Crush basically is pre- earnings okay pre- earnings what happens is the stock will have high implied volatility all right so when I showed you guys the call options before earnings uh if I remember correctly this is like a few days ago uh before earnings let me go to the option I was looking at which was the 152 covered call uh the implied volatility was I think it was around 96 if you guys watched that last video which many of you did so I think now it has fallen by half okay the implied volatility has fallen by literally half and that's just a function of before earnings you have one of the highest implied volatility times that a stock can have right and that's because a lot of investors are expecting a big move because there's an expected Big Move implied volatility is higher to account for that expected big move so the options are going to be like twice as expensive which is why buying options before earnings can be very risky but can also be very profitable it's a double-edged sword okay it's a double-edged sword of of what can happen so right now that earnings have already come in implied volatility is low it's less attractive but it's still high enough to make tons of money and because it's still high enough to make tons of money I would simply just stick to the easy wheel strategy that I've been covering for the past 5 years on this YouTube channel we're about to hit my 5year anniversary so I hope that you make another you know thousands and thousands of dollars by just sticking to my simple formula of covered calls all right so what I'm going to do is I'm actually going to look at the 135 you can see here that the Delta is 30 oh my goodness I just picked the random option and it happens to be a 30 Delta which is exactly my sweet spot of what I say is my sweet spot 30 Delta how did I do that well honestly it's just because an out- of-the money option that's just a little bit lower is typically around a 30 Delta right so I just intuitively picked a 135 strike and it happens to be 30 Delta perfect implied volatility 43 that's pretty good uh implied volatility of 43 is is also like a good implied volatility it's it's it's fairly High the volume is amazing it's at 8,600 that means that you're going to get filled in this trade fast as a as a a MF right that's as a mother right uh I don't curse on these videos just trying to make these a little fun today uh the volume is 8600 it's fast you're going to get filled fast bid ask 335 340 that that's that's a perfect tight bid ask that's that's tight as as a bicep curl all right that's tight that's good the tighter the bid ask the better because when it's a wide bit ask spread all right you basically are not going to get um a good fill you have to basically play around with the bid ask spread and most likely than not you're not going to get filled for the best rate which just means that you have slippage costs all right that's what I call slippage cost you're just losing some money it's like it's like a Ferrari it's like you're trying to sell a car a Ferrari or Toyota it doesn't really matter let's just say a Ferrari okay it's a $200,000 car you're trying to sell it on Craigslist now I don't know why you would sell a car on Craigslist a Ferrari but let's say someone comes to you and then they they just say hey I buy it right now for 199,000 you're like dude all right fine right you're not going to say no but you see see that's that's $1,000 slippage cost which is right it's like what 0.5% cuz 1% would be two grand and then he just knocked you down by 1,000 so it's a half a percent loss it's kind of a big deal guys it it kind of adds up when you're making many trades over a single month right if there's a high slippage cost you can be short a couple hundred bucks and in a year that's a few thousand I mean it it really does add up so you want a tight bit ask spread all right so I would go ahead and sell the 135 uh here for December now also for January I would go to January 17 this is the traditional expiration and for January I would also look you can go a little bit lower so look this is the good news with with going out further in time so you can go lower so for example let me pick the 130 and I bet you this is going to be around a 30 Delta again uh 26 Delta so it's a little bit lower so you can see how I actually went from 135 to 130 but it's even safer like it's literally even a lower Delta so the more time you give an option this is why I do like to do monthly trading and two month Trading is because the more time that you give an option the more premium you collect up front so a lot of you guys that are in that retirement Zone that have a couple hundred, which is uh many of you guys and I work with uh I work with folks oneon-one and I do Zoom chats and I just text them back and forth all Market hours that's what my one-on-one looks like I actually give you my time and I see a lot of folks that have a few hundred, and they're easily just selling puts and creating a really solid income Source right now in this market $10,000 a month is easy it's just easy like I have so many students that are making like 8% 15% 20% in a month and that's it's just an Easy Market I don't assume it'll always be easy there's good times there's bad times there's Seasons right in everything in life right and with Nvidia right now I think it's we're still in the early Innings I don't know if I could say early in Innings but the mid Innings where we're still going to get some more uh momentum upside which is why I'm still planning to cover the stock on a very regular basis and keep you guys up to date if you're subscribed to running covered calls selling puts and just the wheel strategy now let me tell you real quick about how to run the wheel strategy and manage it uh I can show you an example as well so look you sell a put right on Nvidia at 135 or 130 whichever you personally prefer one is not better than the other I just showed you two plays I didn't click it but here let me click it it's $400 in income one is not better than the other guys they're both fine all right they're both meaning that you will have to buy Nvidia at 135 or 130 if Nvidia pops down or declines below those strike prices now look if that happens at expiration you don't need to do anything you don't need to roll anything you don't need to do anything guys I'm a fan of doing less and creating passive safe consistent income I see a lot of people over trading and that's a big mistake and I teach passive income so you want to wait until expiration for these put options that you sell just hang out do do other things in life if it goes below this is how you manage it all right A lot of people want to know oh should you close it should you roll it no no listen when we are selling puts on a high quality company the whole reason we sell puts is because we don't mind owning shares and we want to get paid to own the shares for a cheaper price than the market so if you want to manage it or roll it you just watch too many YouTube videos about you know other folks that tell you you need to manage it and roll it they don't really know what they're talking about what you need to actually do is just to hold the position until expiration get ass signed and then sell covered calls you want to sell covered calls above your average cost so look on Nvidia if the average cost is 130 okay cool what you go do is then you sell call options now these are not going to be accurately priced right now because basically I showed you the 130 and in the future if it were to be 130 these options would be worth less right just they would be worth less like if I were to go down to the $130 it's not going to be worth $17 that's $1,700 it's going to be worth a lot less maybe it's $400 $500 who knows uh right now but nonetheless you want to sell covered calls at your average cost or above so if you got it at 130 then you're just going to sell 135 covered calls and essentially you're just going to collect premium and then if it goes up to 135 it's fine guys it is it's fine you you made money okay you don't need to do too much if you follow my strategies they're very easy to print money with doing less work that's that's my strategy and that's what I teach on this YouTube channel if you guys have questions feel free to email me down below I'm going to add my email if you want one-on-one coaching I am the only and best one-on-one coach on option trading and I can show you how to make $10,000 or more per month if you guys want one-on-one coaching I still have 12 spots left for one-on-one coaching this year it has been an amazing journey with all my one-on-one students many of them doctors Lord Engineers but you can be anyone you can just be a hardworking professional or someone that's close to retirement that wants to create a big source of income really scale up their portfolio and just wants to you know really learn these strategies I teach I show I show you how to fish but I also give you fish so this is the best program that if you want to scale up especially in these times I think there's so much money to be made these next three months like legitimately I hit $4 million in my portfolio in this market we might even hit 4.2 million 4.5 million in the next couple CP of months right times are good so yeah take advantage of these times stay safe invest safe and thanks so much for watching this video catch you guys in the next one
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