저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 연준 긴축 속에서도 경기 정상화와 유동성이 유지돼 증시 상승 여건이 유효하며, 2022년 초 S&P500 5,000 돌파 가능성이 있다는 낙관적 전망. 시장 상승 요인: 연준이 테이퍼링을 긴축이 아닌 '완화 축소'로 규정하고 금리 인상 로드맵을 제시해 시장이 수용했다고 평가. 델타·오미크론 변수가 경제를 둔화시키면 연준이 정책을 되돌릴 수 있다는 프레임이 시장 신뢰를 줬다고 봄. 지수 목표: 연말 S&P500 4,800, 내년 초 5,000 전망. 12월 계절성이 강하다고 언급. 남아프리카 확진 추세는 꺾이기 시작했고 하스피탈라이제이션 증가는 제한적이라고 진단. 성장주(ARK·캐시 우드 계열): 3~5년 시계에서는 30~50세 인구 증가로 혁신 성장이 가속된다며 보유 가치를 인정. 단기(현 상황)에는 금리 인상 환경에서 선호도가 낮다고 봄. 단기 선호 섹터: 인플레이션 민감주. 에너지(석유)는 공급 부족과 수요 회복(출장 재개)으로 가격 지지, 에너지주는 유가 대비 괴리가 커 매력적. 금융주는 인플레이션 헤지, 일부 산업재도 긍정적. 내년 상반기는 시장이 소화하는 구간으로 봄. 빅테크(FANG): 가격이 싸졌다며 여전히 선호. 여행·레저주: 과거 금융위기 후 주택건설주처럼 비관이 과도했다고 비유. 업계는 비용 절감으로 어닝 서프라이즈 여지가 있고 멀티플 재평가 가능. 다만 현재 수요 불안(바이러스 공포)으로 단기 보유는 어렵다고 인정. 리스크: 내년 금리 인상 본격화, 지정학 이슈, 중간선거 해(통상 이익은 하반기에 집중) 등으로 내년은 '두 개의 시장(tale of two markets)'이 될 수 있다고 전망. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기 낙관, 중기 신중, 장기 성장주 긍정.
다듬은 글
uh well you know one day moves and markets are hard to explain um so uh so i i don't blame jim for describing it that way but to me the reason i thought the market rallied yesterday is that the rationale the fed gave for why they sort of changed their view on on tapering plus the road map for for potential rate hikes uh is an economy that's normalizing uh with both you know demand shocks fading and the supply shocks fading but at the same time that framework concluded the risk that variants like the delta variants slow the economy and if omicron has an impact that they could walk back uh this framework and that's very you know that's a template that the market understands and agrees with and doesn't think there's policy error so to me i think it's actually a risk on road map that he provided because it's sort of saying look unless delta and omnicron and omicron and other variants you know don't sort of change trajectory the fed could be tightening but that's sort of what the market wants is that a fed that sort of still has the markets back you're not trying to describe a goldilocks environment are you where even though we're having fed tightening it's what the market wants it's what the economy can withstand and yet it's going to be flexible enough in that environment and by the way we still have a lot of liquidity even though they're doubling the pace of the taper let's not think that because they're doing that all of a sudden the rain stops falling from the sky right there's they're still doing that that's exactly right he he said it several times that tapering is not tightening it's just not adding accommodation which is different than removing accommodation which is what rate hikes are and i do think the market wants the fed to be a bit of an inflation watcher and that's very clearly stated so if inflation is not going to track worse than expected then the fed doesn't have to act faster and then if we have sort of you know as you know this looming uncertainty because of these variants and and the transmissibility that's going to you know that's going to create the uncertainty that keeps the fed a little more devilish and i think post confirmation which is in february you know we could also have a change in the character the fed but at the moment it's important for for powell to be reconfirmed so you're sticking with your call i mean that's the bottom line 4 800 end of this year if not even stronger and 5 000 into the beginning of next year yes i mean i know the time window is really strong because we're essentially only two weeks left of the year but we know it's a strong seasonal we're watching south africa closely but as you know last week positivity started to roll over and we're going to check the regional cases but as you know hospitalizations barely picked up and then if you look at some of the sewage data in some cities uh there's some evidence that potentially where you know omicron's run burn through a lot of areas so omicron's very contagious but then it burns through people forget there's another side of omicron which is when it peaks yeah what do i want to do i mentioned endeavor for example earlier and you know kathy wood is is buying that now and and maybe that's the reason that the stock has a big jump today but it brings to mind those types of stocks right the kathy wood type names the ark stocks which have gotten obliterated so what do i do with those now when people ask you is it safe to buy innovation fund names some of the higher multiple higher valuation higher price to sales stocks everybody knows the kinds of which we're talking about is it safe to buy those today tom or not um you know there i think from a on your if your time frame is three five years i agree with kathy woods view that there's exponential growth coming and that's because the number of people aged 30 to 50 is actually accelerating in america uh we have some research that number one shows that if you overlay the number of people aged 30 50 you know the five-year change it's highly correlated with patent growth so i i think we're going to enter a period where there's a lot of innovation coming it's a lot of these companies she's described but in a world where people are focused on you know antivirals and fed tightening these aren't really names people put in their shelf and wheelhouse that they want to own i mean to me right now you'd want to be owning inflation-sensitive stocks but that being said i i think exponential growers still make sense in your portfolio i'm sorry for i'm sorry for interrupting you i thought you're finished up with your sentence i i apologize um inflation sensitive stock so what what is that give me give me the areas where i'm going to make the most money in your mind in this new road ahead that we have with the fed policy change yes uh i mean i don't want to own things that have fake price increases because of uh supply shortages you know so i i don't think core goods prices are really a way to make money as an equity investor but where there's structural shortage for instance in oil uh you know you got a growing economy and as people as the global economy emerges from these covid then it becomes you know endemic demand is going to recover and as john was saying business travel will recover which hasn't yet that's a price support for oil especially with little production and then the energy stocks are trading at a huge gap to that and you know you can see the resilience because as soon as the fed band-aid was ripped off we've had a big move in these names so i like energy stocks uh i think next year the first half is you know a period where the market's still trying to digest this but you know financials are actually a pretty good inflation hedge as well and then some industrial so it's it's really again it's kind of epicenter but that that being said i still like fang as well i mean i think you know these got cheap i mean it's not really epicenter and i was going to ask you next about that so i'm glad you brought it up um are you comfortable i mean look when i think of epicenter and and others do as i think as well rather than trying to speak for a broad array of people uh travel stocks you know things that are more sensitive to what's going on in in the world right now with the virus and otherwise or those types of names are you comfortable recommending those types of stocks right now travel and leisure anything in that vein yeah i think it's uh you know to me the travel stocks is like the home builders post gfc uh because people said you'd never want to own a home builder again uh because it's a bad business and you know no one's going to buy houses and you know you look the last 12 years they've been absolute monsters i think travel and leisure companies are facing a crisis they've cut costs uh there is a demand problem because uh and a worker shortage but the demand problem is you know like you said people are still really nervous about the virus but that's not true five years from now uh because and if that's not true the operating leverage and the cost cutting is true so that means you've got an earning surprise story with a multiple re-rate and cost a capital low and and and that's that's a road map for making equity returns that are you know beating the market so i yes i still like them but you're right it's it's tough to own them between now and your end does it get more complicated for investors next year let's assume that you're correct and frankly you deserve the benefit of the doubt because in large part you have been if we hit 5000 for example in the early part of 22 then what does it get more difficult because we then have to think of actual rate hikes in our face along with you know who knows what geopolitical issues not to mention midterm elections and things like that yes uh scott that that's all formula for treachery right uh so if the if this year there was turbulence because of the sort of vaccine rollout and the variant emerging you know next year the variants are going to emerge but we probably have a lot more therapeutics which offsets that but you're right the midterms is a new dynamic uh the fed is that much closer to liftoff and you know liftoff i agree with josh it doesn't have to happen uh but right now that's that's the base case for the fed liftoff is not is going to meet is tough and midterm election years as you know it's always all the gains are in the second half you you rarely make money the first half of the midterm election year so yes i think it's probably a tale of two markets next year all right we'll see uh look forward to having many conversations in the weeks ahead with you tom lee thanks so much thanks scott all right that's tom lee up now
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