저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 오미크론 변이 충격의 저점이 가까웠으며 12월 랠리가 올 것이라는 낙관론. 시장 상황: 변이 우려로 VIX가 45까지 급등하고 금리는 급락했으며, 유가는 70달러 아래로 떨어졌다. 미국 휴장일 단축 거래와 유럽 짧은 세션이 패닉을 키웠다고 봤다. 전망: 전략가 Mark Newton의 3~5% 조정 전망이 12월 초에 끝날 수 있다고 봤다. 2022년 유가 60달러 가능성은 있으나 경기 급랭 근거는 약하다고 봤다. 남아공 백신 접종률이 낮지만 확진자는 여름 3만명 대비 2,400명 수준이라 변이 영향이 제한적이라고 봤다. 투자 전략: 정책 당국이 패닉할 때가 투자자가 진입할 때라고 주장했다. 경기민감주와 손절이 나오는 종목 중심의 반등을 예상했다. 주식은 채권보다 싸다고 봤고, 10년물 금리 기준 S&P 500 PER 약 20배(2022년 추정)를 매력적으로 평가했다. 기술 지표: VIX 기간구조가 아직 정상(우상향)이라 아직 극단적 공포 신호는 아니라고 봤다. 다만 역전되면 더 위험하다고 경고했다. 연준 관련: 시장이 금리 인상과 테이퍼링을 앞당겨 반영하던 것이 되돌려지고 있다고 봤다. 채권시장이 과열된 인상 베팅을 되돌리는 중이라 연준이 빨리 긴축하기 어려울 것이라 봤다.
다듬은 글
hi michael and sarah first of all happy thanksgiving or happy post thanksgiving um i mean it's uh you know today's obviously a fierce reaction and the markets are always going to be a little worried about things that change visibility and things that can cause policy makers to panic and then eventually consumers to panic and today is is a great example that the vix has already risen 45 and the tenure has come down dramatically so i would be in the camp that i think today is much closer to marking the actual tradable low uh our technical strategy mark newton has called for a three to five percent correction that was going to start and then end in early december i i would say this is the hallmark so this is actually today i i mean you know i'm not a scientist but there has not been a a variant of covet that has actually truly change the direction of the economy so i know this is very alarming but you know investors need to take it in stride too yeah well there's certainly no doubt about that i mean obviously you know even maybe in the best case scenario we have a couple of weeks where we're not really sure how to assess uh you know the science behind this new variant and things like that uh but do you think the market uh is also essentially reacting to you know where it had been already in other words this is a certainly a very direct uh excuse and a reason to to drive this one-day market action but uh do you actually feel as if when you see crude oil crack below 70 a barrel uh and and you see a lot of these macro moves that seem as if they're kind of losing their previous trends or ranges is that something that's that you feel as if can can feed on itself uh oh yeah it's uh michael that's a great point you know once the sellout starts nobody can really determine uh the depth and you know the fierceness and the speed uh but today you know the timing is awful i mean it's a shortened trading day in the us with very few people actually at their desks in europe it's a shorter session i mean if i was a policy maker and i was worried about oil prices and the spr was kind of like a last bullet that didn't do much this you know this obviously helps make people panic and it's causing oil to be lower but do i think oil 60.
in 2022 because the economy has screeched to a halt because of this variant i mean it's possible but you know what investors have to keep in mind is you know south africa's vaccination rates like 24 and the number of cases reported as 2400 uh so even though this new variant's a large share it was the cases were over 30 000 in the summer so it's uh look it's a policy makers are panicking and generally when policymakers panic that's when investors want to actually step in so so just to be clear you're saying buy buy the debt what would you be buying yes uh i i'd be i mean i don't want to sound like uh i hit the jim cramer button but yes i i think we're still on track for a fierce december rally i think it's gonna be led by whatever is getting stop losses today so you know our cash and talked about this morning you know the cyclicals i mean casinos and hotels selling off and retailers i mean these are companies that dramatically cut costs and they have huge demand and investors uh i mean unless the entire world decides to buy bonds stocks are still cheaper than bonds you know you're paying over 50 times to buy a tenure you're buying you're paying sorry more than that 65 you're paying 50 times by an investment grade bond i mean the s p you know what 20 times our 2022 estimate i mean it's still a bargain yeah um i mean there was a a couple of signs here that you know the the market sort of um stopped going down at the dow one down one thousand on the dow and the dow one down 100 on the s p uh level right here what signals would you be looking for to suggest uh that in fact either the fever is starting to break or in fact we're we're in for a little bit more pain here because i think everybody remembers that friday when covid first started to be brought to bear on the stock market uh back in february of 2020.
margaret was down one percent today that that monday we actually uh kind of lost more ground so i clearly the muscle memory maybe makes people nervous correct michael that's a great point again like i i don't know the future so i'm saying things based on our historical uh look at past cycles and you know our evidence-based work but one thing that's always a clue to tell you you should be a lot more scared is when the vix term structure the futures curve really starts to invert so in other words it's pricing a near-term volatility greater than out term a negative premium essentially today i'm staring at it it's still a positively sloped mixed futures curve so where even though we've got a spike in the vix the the market is really saying this is a i don't have liquidity day it's not that i think there's big calamity that we're facing for the next few weeks so i would say the vix signal today is this is the bottom but you're absolutely right i mean anything could happen over the weekend you know and you know there could be a meteor strike as well and that would be a you know three strikes yeah let's hope not on that i hope not but tom i just wanted to bring up the fed because that that's part of the story here and already after you know if the past few weeks and days have been about a pricing in a faster taper and a sooner interest rate hike already that's starting to unwind we're seeing that in the money market fund so may was 50 50.
now they're taking off june and punting it to september at least if you look at where the market is expecting the first interest rate increase to come from the fed and i wonder clearly you're seeing that that kind of reaction in the bond market but is that if that continues and this if this does cause some sort of economic event or consumers to to pull back when that might become a good thing for investors if that isn't so quick to uh pull back on stimulus yeah that's spot on sarah i mean as you know the the bond market's been fighting the fed over the summer uh really pushing uh the markets to show liftoff way sooner than the fed has been explicitly seeing but the reason for that was uh inflation was super hot like supernova hot and they and there was a belief that the global economy was coming back you know roaring back well i mean if you got panic like this and commodities are down i mean to me uh i think that the bond market is now having to realize that that was a crowded trade to bet on liftoff so you're absolutely right i mean if anyone thinks that that the fed is now going to be pushed into raising sooner this this is a huge amount of cold water yeah not a lot of inflation talk today tom lee very valuable to have you on a day like today thank you for joining us yeah thanks for having me from fun strat let's talk more about this
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