저자: TomLee · 외국인
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S&P500 5,000 초반 저점 이후 VIX 60→31로 구조적 저점 가능성 제기, 중기 박스권 우려 병존. 파월 발언 후 장기금리 하락과 하이일드 스프레드 축소를 긍정 신호로 해석. 무역협상 낙관 조짐과 경기 둔화 리스크 공존. NVDA는 H20 수출규제 충격으로 급락했으나 PER 대비 저평가, 매도 아님. TSLA 실적 기대감, MSTR 저점 신호 언급. 장기적으로 AI 반도체 핵심 기업으로 긍정.
다듬은 글
ret Capital and the his is our update for the Granny Shots ETF for the week of April 11th. I want to cover some particulars before giving you some macro thoughts and some thoughts on some of the Granny Holdings itself. The price uh as of April 11th was $17.67 and total assets of $829. Over the past week, Granny Shots rose 8.47%.
Uh compared to a 5.73% rise in the S&P or relative performance of 275 basis points. Like last week, I think it's important to focus on the macro because correlations of stocks have increased. And so I just thought I would give you our latest macro thoughts. The first is uh I think that there are signs and I'll explain why that stocks have shown evidence of a bottom.
I think it's a structural low decisively and it's possibly the low low for 2025. Here's uh a price chart of the S&P over the past week. And as you can see, the S&P um was 5669 before tariff liberation day, fell to a low of 4835 on April 7th and has recovered somewhat to around 5,300. And we think that there's still roughly 2 to 3% upside in the near term towards 5,500.
Now, the S&P has pulled back, but as you can see, it is moving along this near-term trend line. So, again, I wouldn't turn too bearish near-term. Stocks fell earlier this week, and this has to do with um on April 16th, Wednesday, when Fed Chair Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Chicago. Now, he said something consistent with his last appearance, which was at the NAB business writers forum.
He says that the Fed has to be patient here because they just don't know what the effects of tariffs will be on either growth or employment. And until they have an idea what tariff the tariff policy is, the Fed has to be patient. Now, that didn't sit well with the president who this morning said the Fed is too late and too wrong and he's citing the ECB and uh the ECB is actually making cuts because they view tariffs as a demand shock.
But I don't think what Powell said is actually sitting poorly with markets. What I'm highlighting here is that when Fed Chair Paul spoke on Wednesday, long-term interest rates, the tenure yield actually fell. That's by in contrast to his same exact comments that he made at the NAB on April 4th where yields actually rose.
So literally, he makes the same comments, but 12 days apart, yields actually fall. I think that's a good sign. More importantly, um the VIX uh did rise on Wednesday to 32, but that's well below the VIX levels that we saw over 50 on April 7th and April 8th when the S&P was at 4,800. What am I trying to get at?
I think the stock market is in a better place today than it was when the S&P was at 4,800. Just recall there was a lot of panic. There was a lot of fear. Yields were rising. uh it didn't look like that the president was going to budge. Remember the the talk from Howard Lnik about he's not negotiating.
Well, things have changed and that's why I think stocks are in a better place. But there is some significance to the fact that the VIX was at 60 and now is at 31. Let me explain. There's three numbers I want to highlight. The VIX was at 60 on April 7th and then on April 11th the VIX closed at 3756 which is an important level and then earlier this week it closed at below 31.
Okay, why is that? Well, there's an old adage that says you buy stocks when the VIX is greater than 50 and good things start to happen when the VIX falls below 30. The VIX above 60 has only happened a handful of times. It happened, of course, this past week. It happened during CO and it happened during the GFC.
Well, let's look at the GFC. Let's use those three dates or those three levels I marked. The VIX above 60, which was October 2008. The VIX falling below 3756, which didn't happen till January 09, and the VIX closing below 31. Importantly, when you close below 31, you were past the low cuz the low was March09.
During CO, the VIX didn't close below 3756 until March 24th, 2020. And it didn't close below 31 until April 2020, but you were already past the low. That's why I think it's important to consider that some important structural low took place um this on this past week. Okay. So, I think that we're still in a bull market.
I'm just not clear if it's a V-shaped recovery like 2020 or it's a range market like 2011. Intuitively, I'm going to say that it makes sense that we made a bottom, but we may be rangebound for a bit. And that's because people are worried that there's other shoes to drop. I mean the tariff war with China could turn into a cold war.
We investors are going to worry about the ripple effects from this shock leading to a global recession. These are extreme views by the way that some people are going to worry about a financial crisis from all this deleveraging and inflation expectations could surge to an extent that we get greedflation.
Remember that's like companies basically raising prices and it's going to force the Fed to hike. And of course, if estimates fall more than 20%, stocks have downside because the stock market already had a 20% draw down. But the internal low seems to have been in place. This is the percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average at the top and above the 200 day moving average on the bottom.
Below 20% is a big deal because over the last 16 years, um, the S&P was higher 6 months and 12 months later. In fact, if you look at three months later, outside of 2022, the stock market was higher three months later every single time. So, I think we did make a structural low. Now, the second thing to keep in mind is the macro is going to be messy for a couple obvious reasons.
We just don't know what the tariff policy is going to be and we just don't know what the economic ripples are going to be. Um, Poly Market says the market is only expecting a 37% chance of a China US trade deal before June. That's not great. Be great to see this above 50%. The the odds of a recession according to Poly Market betting is 53%.
That's not great, but it's definitely better than 68% which is where it was a week ago. Um, and I think I'm encouraged by the fact that high yield uh has rallied almost 50 basis points um from a week ago. That's a pretty significant move from 461 to 414. So I think it's helpful to look at things on the margin.
So are things getting less bad or better? It's like a relative thing. And I'd say that the relative news has been good. This is a a truth social post from the president this morning. He says he had a productive call with the president of Mexico and he met with the highest level of Japanese trade representatives and he's meeting with Italy today.
That's great news. And maybe notably he says every nation including China wants to meet. Okay, this is on April 17th. I think that's a positive tweet. Uh and we know that the White House has been moving towards deescalation anyways from the tariff delaying of the tariffs on April 9th to the CBP actions late Friday last week.
And we know there's more voices in the room. You know, we have the Mag 7, the automakers and Jamie Diamond also having influence on the president and his actions, which is a good thing. Which gets us to the economy. I I think the economyy's been resilient. I mean, first of all, CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moyahan, said that small businesses, look, they're they are trying to they're sitting on their hands, but the asset quality hasn't deteriorated.
And he said the consumer is holding up, especially when it comes to services. And I think that's a good sign. We know that there is going to be economic ripples though because tourism from abroad to the US is down from Canada to Mexico to Europe and Asia. And United is so unsure about the profit outlook, they had to give two earnings scenarios.
Okay, bottom line, the macro is messy, but the economy is not unraveling yet. All right, so let's look at granny shots and the themes um where relative performance stood out. The strongest is energy and cyber security over the past week. That's names like Palanteer and G Vernova and Crowd Strike and the Style Tilt.
And this is again balanced quarterly, but Style Tilt had the strongest positive contribution to the Granny Shots portfolio. And as you can see, it's not a surprise to see the drags coming from names like Caterpillar. But let's talk about stocks that have been taking particular hits in the last couple of days.
One of them is Nvidia because it fell 10% on Wednesday and it really hasn't recovered. Now you're wondering what why is Nvidia getting hit so hard? Well, it has to do with an export restriction. Nvidia makes this H20 chip which it designed to sell uh in a way that was acceptable to the US to export to China.
It's actually a fairly important chip for Nvidia. um more you know more than10 billion dollars of sales but at the moment um because Nvidia follows the letter of the law the US does not want them to ship any more H20 chips to China. Well Dan Ives put it succinctly basically the White House knows that China needs these Nvidia chips.
This is part of the tariff war. So u Nvidia is caught in the crossfire. Okay. Well, you might be wondering, does this mean you should get out of Nvidia? Analysts have already adjusted their estimates for Nvidia. And Nvidia trades, okay, at 18 times year ahead earnings, year plus two. The semiconductor group trades closer to 26 times.
I mean, even a stock like Intel trades at, you know, 14 times. Nvidia is trading as if it doesn't grow. I mean, it's trading below a market multiple. Would I be selling Nvidia here? No. Does this sound like a an opportunity to be adding? I would say so. So, to me, unless you think this Terrafor turns into a cold war, which it could, at the end of the day, there's only one company that makes chips that are important to AI, and that's Nvidia.
And as you can see, Nvidia was washed out. It fell to $87 on April 7th. I mean, even now at 100, it's still almost 20% above that level. Okay. Another company that's reporting earnings next week that's a granny shot is Tesla. Now, as you know, Tesla's been taking a lot of hits partly because of Elon Musk's role at the White House and Doge, and we know it's been hitting demand.
Um but Tesla has responded positly in three of the last four earnings reports. So uh as much as dire expectations have come into play, um I do think Tesla is pretty washed out. And again, it fell to 214 on April 7th, uh which I think is a washed out level. You know, it's at 240 right now. So I think a lot of bad news got priced into Tesla.
And the last stock I want to point out that looks really washed out is Micro Strategy. The reason I'm pointing this one out and Micro Strategy for those who are uh not as familiar with the name um they are a levered Bitcoin equity. They're lever to Bitcoin because they are using Bitcoin as a treasury strategy.
Uh Bitcoin itself has acted relatively better recently. So it's starting to improve. But as you can see, Micro Strategy fell to 231 on March 11th. And then on the panic day of April 8th, when everything in the stock market was selling off, Nvidia was at sorry, Micro Strategy fell to 236. That means it actually held at a higher low on a day when the entire market was crashing.
So again, I think Micro Strategy is showing signs of being really washed out. So that gets us to what are granny shots? Uh, granny shots refers to a way of shooting free throws and it's uh was popularized by Rick Barry, NBA Hall of Famer, who made 90% of his shots. Granny shots aren't as sexy looking as shooting overhanded.
But the way we do granny shots in this fund is we look at the most important structural themes for markets. That's things like millennial strategy, global labor suppliers, the rise of AI and automation, energy and cyber security, and easing financial conditions. We also look at shorter term tactical things like style tilt, seasonality, and the PMI recovery.
Now, for a stock to be a cranny shot, not only should it be associated with one of these themes, and it has to be one of the strongest stocks in each of these themes, it has to appear more than once. That's what makes it a granny shot. So, the stocks that appear most often are really the strongest names because they are associated with multiple themes.
Think of it this way. They're going to have multiple ways to work because there's multiple drivers for the story. That's what makes it a granny shot. There's a lot more detail on our fact sheet which can be found at grannyshots.com. And this is the investment team. Thanks for listening and I'll speak to you soon.
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