저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 2022년 약세장이 끝났다고 보며, 시장은 인플레이션 정점을 선반영하고 있다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 신호: 선행지표(상품·대체데이터)가 모두 하락 전환했고, 향후 6개월 전월비 인플레이션이 2% 미만으로 떨어질 수 있다고 본다. CPI는 여전히 6%대지만 이미 크게 꺾였다. 1982년 유사성: 1982년 8월처럼 인플레이션 주도 약세장이 4개월 만에 회복된 전례를 들며, 당시 볼커는 10월에야 긴축을 멈췄지만 주가는 먼저 반등했다고 설명한다. 실적·밸류에이션: 기업 70%가 실적 상회, 대다수 기업이 실적 성장 중이며 기업 실적은 8점 만점에 가깝다고 평가. S&P500은 연말 4,800(현재 대비 약 15% 상승) 전망. 2022년 장단기 금리차와 금리 흐름이 강세 전환을 시사한다고 본다. 연준·금리: 연준은 시장이 인지하는 것보다 더 많이 긴축했을 수 있으며, 2023년 금리 인하 시 PE 상승을 지지할 것으로 본다. 다만 불확실성이 크다고 인정. 반론 대응: 1982~87년 S&P 이익은 감소했으나 PE는 8에서 25로 상승. 연준이 중립을 향해 가도 시장 위험 요인이 되지 않는다고 주장. 20배 밸류에이션 부담에 대해서는 과거 고점 후 조정 가능성을 인정하면서도 회복이 예상보다 빠를 것이라 전망. 출연자 전망: Tom Lee는 강세, Jim Liebenthal도 강세이나 Lee보다 덜 낙관적. Bryan은 1982년과 현재의 세금·밸류에이션 차이를 지적하며 신중론.
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joins us now with his big market call and tom what a segue uh brynn's saying she's not ready to call the bottom but you certainly are uh well i mean i think all of those comments actually are valid you know we don't have this ability and i do agree the first half has been a story of epionic misery but we know the markets characters change and i think that's the signal we have to pay attention to that the stock market i think is starting to respond and anticipate a turning point inflation and that's very similar august 82 that's what we wrote about to our clients data and even two oxygen two cpi is still six percent still in the biggest recession since the great depression volcker wasn't even ready to give up the anti-inflation water until october so not for another almost eight weeks but the stock market turned uh decisively and i think one of the key points is that that inflation-driven bear market was erased in four months so you had almost a three year bear market that was completely recovered in four months and i think that's what we have to be mindful of today that i think couples had great earnings considering we had a huge inventory correction the ten percent rise in the dollar and six months of negative gdp and yet seventy percent of companies are beating and actually positive earnings growth for the majority of companies so i i would just say i'd give performance of businesses an eight bucks and then let's dig into your call just a bit you see the s p ending the year at 4 800 about a 15 rise from today what's the catalyst because certainly inflation at least at this point has not died down we're seeing pce at a 40-year high cpi at a 40-year high what is the catalyst for this move well um you know for our fund straight clients we're sending an inflation dashboard that really looks at uh three types of inflation report shows up in cpi you know including the alternative data commodities and a lot of leading indicators those are all decisively rolled overs i i think when people talk about cpi being elevated which correct that's the hard number but it's already come down sharply and in fact by some measures i i'd actually say that leading integrators say for the next six months month over month inflation will analyze under two percent so we could have half a year where people are going to start to say cpi's under two and what does that mean for multiples i mean i think that's what the ten year and two years have been telling us and it would really be a very classic bear market move uh sorry a bear market end for the rally to be strong i can't explain it but i would suspect it has a lot to do with not only multiples of standing but actually visibility improving and the dollar weakens and we've got the tailwinds from lower gasoline and consumers you know confidence improves i just think all of this i mean stocks can recover pretty quickly you know i know people think markets were expensive at 4 800 but if burns are 245 or 250 next year i mean it's not demanding to say markets can get to 4 800.
all right tom lee with another call on inflation i want to bring in the investment committee tom i'm going to start you off nice and easy with jim liebenthal he's bullish too just not as bullish as you but he's also bullish jim uh hey good morning tom you know i'm bullish so uh if i'm saying you're more bullish than me that's saying something here's my question to you and you know i get your research and i love it but uh when i hear the comparison to 1982 what i think of is the start of a 17-year bull market uh that was uh promoted by a lot of things not only breaking inflation but uh the reagan years deregulation not only here but also abroad i want to make sure i'm understanding you are you saying we're embarking on some sort of regime like that of many many years and many other powerful forces at work or is this just hey we're breaking inflation like it broke in 1982.
uh sure it's a little bit of both i think that you know the the volcker bear market which was sort of the end of an inflation regime but that was a 27 percent drawdown i mean move that at 25 and i think this is how investors need to appreciate when you when you're sort of breaking the inflation regime markets can continue to recover to levels that are far faster than people expect but uh you're right i don't think eight i don't think we're going to be up 150 percent in 18 months like a meeting two but we're i think the bull market that was in place because of the pandemic and re-engineering and the millennials and the generational wealth transfer and the reshowing back to us i think those are all still intact and i think that's what people forgot that in this sort of five or six month bear market investors got so gloomy they forgot that there was a lot of underlying drivers that actually protect the economy including the fact that u.s households in corporate time is highly leveraged so i i think the market is going to resume its rising trend but it was interrupted by this huge inflation episode yeah thomas this is bryan i have a question for you you know great to see you um i think that you know the the you did great work obviously on looking through the tea leaves and looking out past how a lot of people can't but where i question about the 80s is that you know in 1971 the pe of the s p was around 16.
10 years later in 1982 it was eight and then i think the other backdrop that gets that gets ignored is that you know the reagan tax cuts were huge tax cuts in 1981 which took you know tax rates from 70 to 50 and then a big cap gains cut cut so you had that double whammy of deregulation but these big tax cuts and volcker right now our backdrop is actually we're about to get tax increases from the biden administration and you still have this inflation so i'm curious how you know how that comes together because i do think the big difference is that starting multiple of eight and cutting taxes is is a big difference between now and then yeah listen to fair points um i think what people forget is from 82 to 87 s p earnings actually declined uh so you actually had almost 20 lower earnings five years later the pe multiple went complete as you said to nearly 25.
um and the tenure was still around six percent by 87 maybe even eight percent so down from you know over 12. so you you had a risk-free rate that would have argued pe should have stayed in the teens but it went to 22. earnings growth captured at a negative rate yeah the multiple went from 8 to 25. so i think when we think about markets embracing risk the stock market is going to find equilibrium on pe i mean again i just want to point out s p companies for six months have been dealing with negative gdp a supply chain bullet that's been ferocious strong dollar uh lack of visibility and they're still producing earnings growth and to me that's the achievement and that's why i think multiples can go higher than they were in the 80s because these are better businesses rob i think you got a question yeah happy client of tom new edge is a happy client a fun strat um tom if we get to 4 800 by year end as you're saying that'd put us in 19.6 times forward earnings and can the market sustain that valuation with the fed going beyond neutral and still doing qt and if so what does that imply for 23 returns it strikes me that it sets up a much more difficult environment because the last two times we got to 20 times valuations 18 and 20 after a melt up market sold off quite meaningfully yeah first and foremost happy you know if we go to 4800 this year it's a great question are we borrowing from the future probably or possibly but it really depends on the on what the market's telling us at 400.
i mean i i would say if the fed moves towards neutral which it is uh remember that's not a risk acid killer that is not trying to step on the neck of the stock market it is trying to contain and manage inflation expectations but if you look at the inflation swap market or even market-based managing inflation it's really pointing us towards a two percent inflation level meaning the fed probably has done more than the market realizes in the fed even itself and so if the fed is cutting rates in 2023 now i'm not saying that's our call but if it is we know that that's actually going to be supportive of pe and as you know when you come out of a downturn of a business cycle pe tends to overshoot because investors look at draw margins so good stocks too well for the next couple years even if we're 400 yes but uh it's a lot of unknowns and and i i wouldn't be comfortable saying i know the path for the next couple years but i do think we're gonna recover much more quickly than these people expect all right time we have to leave the conversation there tom lee from fun strat saying the 2022 bear market is over tom we appreciate you being here and you don't want to miss my pro talk with tom lee on tuesday august the 2nd at 12 p.m we're going to
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