저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 미국 벤처캐피털과 기후변화 대응 투자는 유망하지만, 거품 신호와 녹색 세탁에 대한 경계가 필요하다고 본다. 벤처캐피털: 미국은 대형 연구대학과 벤처 자금 규모, 실패에 관대한 문화 덕분에 벤처캐피털 분야에서 압도적이며, 이것이 현대 자본주의에서 가장 건강한 부분이라고 평가한다. FANG 기업들도 모두 미국 벤처 산업의 산물이라고 언급한다. ESG와 기후: ESG에서 G(지배구조)는 상식적이지만 E(환경)가 생존과 직결된다고 강조한다. 최근 홍수·산불 등 기상 이변이 심해졌고, 정부들이 최근 18개월 사이 기후 대응에 적극 나서고 있다고 본다. 투자 기회: 경제의 탈탄소화는 수조 달러 규모의 가장 큰 도전이며, 향후 공개시장과 벤처캐피털 모두에서 핵심 투자 기회가 될 것이라고 전망한다. 탄소세 도입이 확산되면서 벤처 투자의 상당 부분이 더 실현 가능해진다고 본다. 중국도 최근 6개월 내 탄소세를 도입했다. 에너지 기업: 엑손·BP 같은 석유기업의 ESG 채택에는 녹색 세탁 우려로 긴장감을 느끼며, 과거 기후 문제를 부인해 수십 년의 시간을 낭비하게 했다고 비판한다. 그래도 기술 발전으로 저렴한 녹색 에너지와 저장장치, 철강 탈탄소화, 바이오플라스틱 성장은 결국 가능하다고 본다. 기후 리스크: 대기 중 CO2가 415ppm으로 올라 550ppm까지 갈 수 있으며, 2도 상승을 넘어설 가능성이 있다. 피해는 온도 상승에 따라 기하급수적으로 커진다고 경고한다. 거품 경고: 과거 2000년 닷컴 거품처럼, 가장 많이 오른 종목(스팩, 테슬라, 비트코인 등)에서 큰 일일 낙폭이 반복되는 것이 거품 붕괴의 초기 신호라고 설명한다. 2000년에는 시장 시총의 약 30%였던 기술주가 먼저 무너졌지만 나머지 시장은 한동안 계속 올랐고, 결국 나머지 70%도 한꺼번에 무너졌다고 회고한다.
다듬은 글
i regret the the that it has to be so much in the us but the us to be honest is extraordinarily powerful in venture capital it raises a lot more money it has a lot more enterprises the quality of the whole industry is much higher the society is more attuned to to to investing in risky enterprises and forgiving people who failed uh no the whole culture the the existence of the great research universities which is critical of the venture capital the us has a death grip uh on on the great research university and the handful of others tend to be in the uk but um so the the it's very hard to avoid the us in venture capital and i think as you know venture capital is far and away the most healthy part of modern capitalism it really does something useful it's in full cry companies starting everywhere and in the green area really important promising new technologies springing out of the woodwork at all the great universities and if you look at the fangs they were all the product of the us vc industry they're all pretty recent companies when you get down to it these these are not offshoots of the procter and gambles and the excellence even microsoft and apple uh started when my firm at gmo was starting so these these are not old enterprises and the rest are teenagers well i've got to admit that esg is kind of complicated and basically over my pay grade as i like to say at a conference you know s g what's not to like good behavior who doesn't love good behavior but e is about our survival if we don't fix the e our society as we know it will start to crumble and um my god have we seen some really lousy weather since we last spoke the floods and fires all around the world the fires in the north of russia were bigger than all the rest of them added together in the world which included the biggest california fires ever recorded so the weather is going to hell everybody is beginning to recognize the dangers of climate change the governments quite suddenly in the last 18 months are getting behind it i would say in the public tradable market that greening the economy decarbonizing the whole industrial system that's the biggest challenge we have ever faced really it will take many trillions of dollars and it will dominate the investment opportunities of the future in the tradable market and in the venture capital market in the venture capital market when did you have an industry with such a following win that every government is thinking about it most governments are working on bringing in carbon tax which will which will make half of the vc investments we see suddenly much more viable we absolutely need a carbon tax and around the world they're coming in fairly thick and fast and china introduced one in the last six months what what do you uh say when you see the likes of exxon or bp embrace esg does that make you tempted to then buy the stocks or not no it makes me very nervous about green washing of course these are the guys who've tried to persuade us that climate change was no problem and they knew very well since the 1970s it was they probably cost us 10 15 20 years of absolutely precious time because we are going to through technology we're going to get out of these problems one day we will have plenty of cheap green energy we'll have plenty of cheap green storage one way or the other we will decarbonize the steel industry and the plastics will be replaced by bioplastics that will grow the problem is time we're just taking too long and the damage building up in the environment is is getting to be already very painful and before we finish this the 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide that we have up from 280 in the last 200 years it's going to go to 550 we are going to go sailing through 2 degrees centigrade and we've seen the damage that happens at 1.1 and it's geometric it doesn't increase you don't get twice the damage at two degrees then you get it one degree you probably get four or five times the damage and at three degrees centigrade perish the thought which we may get to you'll have another five or ten times the damage it it really is a serious threat we really have to address it and we are beginning to address it on a global basis and and and the critical problem that we can't replace is time and these exxon guys they cost us 10 or 15 years and lord knows i hope one day they pay for it warning signs of a bubble breaking you find the stocks that have done the best as spanx and and particular specs and tesla and and and bitcoin and and you wait until they start to have these big daily drops and then they recover and they drop and they recover and and that's the very early warning and the market in 2000 for example didn't go together they took out the pet.coms and shot them the rest of the market continued to go up it didn't even gain to notice the shooting of those little guys they were only worth scores of millions or a couple of hundred million then they took out the junior growth stocks and shot them and the market kept going up and then they took the medium growth stocks and shot them and and finally by the summer they were shooting the ciscos and the entire tech part of the market had been shot and that had been 30 percent at the market peak of the total market cap and yet the s p by september was at the co-equal high of march which meant that the other 70 had continued to rise so that is a typical way bubbles don't necessarily break on mass but having having sliced off the tech and and the dot coms at the end then finally the 70 percent like a giant iceberg rolled over on mass for 70 percent you
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