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there will be a point and it's probably an Our Lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value the other thing I'll say just broadly about the market is I think that there's a tremendous amount of optimism about the economy I think that's why you see risk spreads get crushed definitely yeah yeah and I think that as long as we see the kind of prognostications that the Trump Administration is putting out I think people are going to be mostly bullish Bitcoin the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap has reached a new all-time high of 93,471 thrilling investors and analysts Alik among the most notable predictions for bitcoin's success in 2024 comes from billionaire venture capitalist chath palahia at the start of the Year chath forecasted during an episode of the all-in podcast that Bitcoin could surpass $500,000 per coin by October 2025 18 months after the next having event based on his analysis bitcoin's price typically stabilizes for about 6 months post having then surges into a massive Bull Run lasting another 12- month by all accounts the current Bull Run aligns perfectly with his projections however this Milestone is Bittersweet for chath who recently expressed regret on the all-in podcast about selling a portion of his Bitcoin Holdings prematurely a decision he estimates has cost him $3 4 billion so far his regret is compounded by a 2014 purchase where he used $1.6 Million worth of bitcoin to buy an empty lot in Lake Tahoe by February 2021 those coins would have been worth $130 million and today they are valued at billions far surpassing the lot's current worth despite this costly mistake chath remains one of bitcoin's most Ardent supporters chth continues to hold a bullish outlook for bitcoin's future predicting that it will one day become a fully uncorrelated and independent asset a non-speculative store of value he believes that in our lifetime Bitcoin will reach valuations in the millions per coin solidifying its role as a Cornerstone of the Global Financial system hi guys hope to see you guys at Dubai token 2049 we have exclusive 10% off The Limited super early bed tickets click the link below this pass will grant you access to speaking sessions networking app exhibition Hall daily networking drinks and also included breakfast lunch and coffee breaks all included the package I love to see everyone there peace out honestly you know what I think about I actually think about all the Bitcoin I sold yeah you I had Bitcoin I had a bunch of Bitcoin in my funds when I managed outside Capital you know that's a I don't know a three or four billion dollar mistake in growing now because my partners at the time capitulated and I wanted to be a good team member and we distributed and it was profitable but obviously I shouldn't have sold it would have made them a lot more money and then I think about like I bought some land it was in the Wall Street Journal I'm sure you can find it but how much is that worth now probably coup hundred million maybe more Jam can I can I ask you a question why do you say sold Bitcoin as opposed to converted Bitcoin into Dollars like when you think about Bitcoin just as as a participant do you think about Bitcoin as a dollar denominated asset that you go and buy Bitcoin and then you're eventually going to sell it turn it back into dollars and use the dollars or are you like what do you think about the purest kind of idea that bit coin should be the deao currency and store of value in the future and the dollar doesn't matter and we shouldn't necessarily be talking about the the value of Bitcoin in dollar denominated terms as something I'm going to eventually turn it back into it hasn't happened yet and so until it happens I think you have to view it as like a very good gold proxy but it's a largely dollar denominated asset now why do you see it going the other way like so a lot of folks thought that as a safe haven it should do well when there's a negative economic Outlook but it has traded the last couple years kind of toally correlated no it's tot it's a totally correlated asset I mean there will be a point it's probably In Our Lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value there will be that day but that day is not now and I think it's very important to see the conditions on the field as they are versus what you wish it to be and and the reason is that it allows you to risk manage more appropriately because if you don't see it then when something happens to the dollar complex good or bad or when something happens to rates good or bad or when something stimulative happens good or bad you're not going to react properly if you're in the business of managing it as a risk asset so if you're in the set it and forget it bucket and there are some people I think it's great none of these conversations matter but like most people you're probably going to be motivated to do something and I think if you're motivated to do something or you have filo that stimulates you to do something whatever the psychology is that leads you to action it's probably important to just view things as they really are versus how you wish them to be and so I think the purists may eventually be right I think they will be right at some point in my lifetime but they're not right now and that's why these things are correlated the other the other thing I'll say just broadly about the market is I think that there's a tremendous amount of optimism about the economy I think that's why you see risk spreads get crushed definitely and I think that as long as we see the kind of prognostications that the Trump Administration is putting out I think people are going to be mostly bullish I think the way that this trade turns around is when something actually breaks in terms of the inflation picture or in terms of the deficit picture and if those things look like going into 2025 that President Trump's actions are not going to be able to course correct it then I think you're going to see people go massively risk off which I think will not be great for markets obviously but right now we're not in that point entrepreneur businessman and angel investor David Friedberg attributes the surge in asset prices to president-elect Donald Trump's Victory according to freedberg Market participants are optimistic that Trump's policies will stimulate investment and drive economic growth across all sectors he aligns with Ark invest founder Cathy wood who anticipates significant deregulation under Trump rolling back red tape that has previously hindered American businesses and stifled growth both Friedberg and would believe these deregulatory efforts will benefit Industries like the digital asset space which has faced scrutiny from regulatory bodies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission cryptocurrency investors are particularly enthusiastic about Trump's promise to dismiss SEC chair Gary Gensler upon taking office they view this as a potential Catalyst for further growth and innovation in the crypto industry both within and Beyond the United States stay tuned for more insights from chath palahia David Friedberg and David saaks as they discuss the evolving economic landscape I think like you said it's not limited to crypto crypto is One Market of several that have been significantly affected by the Outlook based on Trump's election I think that Trump's election has a couple of key features that are changing market dynamics one is folks kind of view some of his policies to be obviously stimulatory with lower tax rates and more deregulation this is you know theoretically going to drive up investment and economic growth the deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and Regulatory challenges like crypto finance and fintech so those types of businesses are are clearly going to benefit or expected to benefit significantly by being able to launch products more quickly and have features and ways that they can generate Revenue that they might be challenged to do Under the current Regulatory schemas and then uh there's also this element of kind of things being inflationary the the feature of tariffs if we don't get spending cut fast enough there's an effect on markets so you know we're still seeing 10year treasury sit at about 4 and a half percent up from 3 and a half% which is where we were right around the rate cut beginning in September and remember since those rate cuts in September we've cut 75 basis points and uh and we're still seeing the kind of 10year Treasury hold High which in kind of implies that there's expected to be persistent inflation in fact the October inflation number accelerated again so it's back up not going down it's I think it went up to 2.6% up from 2.3% the month prior these General kind of effects that are predicted from the Trump policy plans is having an effect in different markets obviously in equities we're seeing more kind of risk R seeking risk-taking and then in the bond markets because of the 4 and a half% treasury yield there's a really interesting Dynamic and and I I kind of sent this this link out yesterday but if you look at the spread on yields between us treasuries which have historically been kind of considered and talked about and are deemed the the risk-free rate and the yield that corporates have to pay to borrow money we haven't seen a spread this low in 26 years so it's a 17-year low for the spread between the yield that companies that issue junk bonds have to pay from treasuries and it's a 26-year low for credit grade bonds so this means the market is either more risk-seeking meaning they're looking for more yield and they're going into corporates because they feel like there is a higher probability that these companies are going to be successful in the future they're not going to have higher default rates Etc so the market is becoming much more risk-seeking or the alternative is that parts of the market are reassessing the risk-free nature of treasuries themselves if spending doesn't get under control the treasury market appetite is decreasing so there's this kind of spread that's shrunk in the last couple of months so we're seeing Capital flooding into the markets for risk-seeking assets and this is obviously affecting crypto equities and and bond markets all across the board sax your thoughts on uh crypto before we get into IPOs and m&a if any yeah just on crypto the the House Republicans already passed a framework for crypto regulation earlier this year it actually got 71 Democrats to to join it it was called the financial Innovation and technology for the 21st century act or fit 21 and it would classified digital assets like crypto as Commodities regulated by the cftc if the blockchain they run on is is quote functional and decentralized that's the key requirement if their blockchain is functional but not decentralized then they would be considered Securities and fall under the purview of the SEC I think the the crypto industry basically wants a really clear line for knowing when they're a commodity and they want Commodities to be governed governed like all other Commodities by the cftc so that's what the Republican bill would do I think with the Republicans now winning the Senate the prospects for that bill to get enacted are now greatly improved especially because sherid Brown who used to run the Banking Committee just lost to Bernie Moreno this was a a seat in Ohio Elizabeth Warren is still going to object to this legislation but she's just going to have way less influence and like you said it's not clear that Gary gendler is going to be sticking around very long at the SEC so look the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress which is what the crypto industry's been asking for and the days of gendler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying ing what the rules are that he's in Prosecuting those days are about to be over so I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying Bitcoin investors are celebrating a major Milestone with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETF options an event that Michael sailor executive chairman of micro strategy predicts will accelerate institutional adoption and drive Bitcoin prices sharply higher on November 16th Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric balunas announced that the cftc had cleared the way for these options marking the second major regulatory hurdle following the sec's approval in September with the OCC now granting final approval trading could begin as early as this week according to nasdaq's head of ETP listings Allison Hennessy while no firm date was confirmed Hennessy noted that the process typically moves quickly once all approvals are in place the initial approval pertains to the ishares Bitcoin trust but analysts like James cart suggest that other Bitcoin ETFs might soon follow suit Jeffrey Park head of alpha strategies at bitwise called the launch of Bitcoin ETF options a GameChanger describing it as the most extraordinary upside volatility in financial history park emphasized that regulated options trading enhances bitcoin's Financial utility unlocking opportunities for leverage and sophisticated strategies he also highlighted bitcoin's fixed Supply and inherent volatility as key factors that could amplify its growth in this newly regulated market Park concluded by noting the unprecedented nature of this development a regulated market with leveraged options on a supply constrained asset he warned that such scenarios could lead to extreme Market Behavior possibly even triggering temporary shutdowns of regulated platforms as the market braces for this next chapter the excitement and anticipation among investors continue to grow let us know your thoughts on this historic development in the comments below
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