저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 비트코인이 4년 사이클 우려로 기관 투자가 지연되고 있으나 곧 본격 유입될 것이라 주장. 금은 2차 고점을 지나 정점 가능성, 비트코인 약 50% 조정 후 바닥 근접 가능성 언급. AI 중심 기술혁명 초기 단계로 보며 SaaS 대비 플랫폼(팔란티어)에 우호적이나 밸류에이션 매수는 자신의 스타일이 아니라고 함. 양자컴퓨터 위협은 2045~2064년 이후로 장기 과제라고 평가.
다듬은 글
I would say the green light that regulators gave Bitcoin and the ETFs here in the United States, yes, was the beginning of institutional investment, but as institutions started learning more about Bitcoin, they learned about this four-year cycle. And so, my guess is there are a lot of institutions that have held back and are saying, "Let me see, let me wait until the the dust settles and around this four-year cycle and I'll pick my spots." But, they know they have a fiduciary responsibility, advisors do, asset allocators do, because Bitcoin is not correlated to any other asset class.
I think the biggest risk is not adjusting to this technology revolution. I think the reason many people aren't taking this seriously is enough is we've never seen this in our lifetimes. We've never had a technology revolution in our lifetimes. Sure, we went through the internet, but that wasn't a revolution.
That helped digitalize the way we do things normally. This is a complete revolution and I think those who are not adapting to it because they've never seen it in their lifetimes and are, you know, therefore underestimating the impact are going to be the losers. A new investment supercycle is already emerging and Bitcoin could be at the center of the biggest opportunity.
That's the message from Cathie Wood, founder of ARK Invest and one of the earliest major institutional voices to openly support Bitcoin. According to her, many institutions are still sitting on the sidelines even after regulators approved Bitcoin investment products in the United States. Large funds have studied the market, noted the famous four-year Bitcoin cycle, and waited before committing serious capital.
Cathie believes that hesitation may not last much longer, especially as institutional investors realize Bitcoin behaves very differently from traditional assets. She also sees a bigger picture. Crypto, blockchain, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other breakthrough technologies are converging to create what could become the most powerful innovation cycle in history.
Do you think institutions are about to pour into Bitcoin, or will caution continue to slow adoption? How will this wave of technological innovation transform markets over the next decade? Cathy's outlook suggests this could be one of the most pivotal moments for investors willing to understand the forces shaping the future.
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In Big Ideas, and in a section called called the great acceleration by Brett Winton our chief futurist, we show the progress in quantum that Google which is at the bleeding edge of quantum computing that Google has made and it has doubled the most important metric in terms of gauging are we ready for prime time.
It has doubled the number of qubits in the last four years. That is slower than Moore's law scaling and right and if it continues at that pace and typically technologies do continue at the pace you know at which they start then quantum computing is not going to be commercially viable until 2064. If for somehow Google speeds this up to Moore's law so twice as fast the progress then we're talking 2045 I think something around that time.
Now that doesn't mean you know we should dismiss the quantum as a threat we we need to take any new technology seriously or any new technology that is in my career practically since I'm going to say for the last 25 years quantum has always been 20 years away right so here again we're saying 20 ish years away so nonetheless we we shouldn't dismiss it and we do know that half of the solution to a problem is understanding the problem and we're learning okay if you make a change in these OG wallets uh so to an updated wallet that will be quantum resistant.
So, I think that's very healthy for the ecosystem to anticipate this. We are not worried about quantum in the short term, and that will be the gist of the paper um that that we're putting out in the next few weeks. In terms of where we are in the cycle, well, because we didn't have the kind of soaring up cycle after the halving, uh we did not expect this much of a correction.
It's still not as bad. It's about a 50% correction. It's still not as bad as we have seen in the past, which was in the beginning down 95%, and I think the last cycle was down 75%. So, maybe we've bottomed. I don't know. That's it's uncanny, this 4-year cycle, but we do have to wonder how much of this has been caused by the flash crash on October 10th, which many people have have wondered if I've been saying this correctly.
We had the flash crash. Binance didn't cause it at all. There was excessive leverage, but Binance exacerbated what happened in terms of the deleveraging because of a software glitch that it had and caused a lot of auto deleveraging. Uh so, I think that unnerved many people, and they're waiting to see still if there is a whale out there who's going to be forced to sell Bitcoin because he or she is so underwater and receiving margin calls from prime brokers.
We heard recently that that is indeed what has happened. That was a rumor, and if that is what has happened, uh then I feel we're pretty close to the bottom, but famous last words, you know, you don't know if that rumored whale uh did go down because if it's a whale, we should know about it, right? I would say the green light that regulators gave Bitcoin and the ETFs here in the United States, yes, was the beginning of institutional investment, but as institutions started learning more about Bitcoin, they learned about this 4-year cycle, and so my guess is there are a lot of institutions that have held back and are saying, "Let me see, let me wait until the the dust settles and around this 4-year cycle, and I'll pick my spots." Uh but they know they have a fiduciary responsibility, advisers do, asset allocators do, because Bitcoin is not correlated to any other asset class.
And gold, well, it's interesting. Bitcoin, if you look if you if you look since late 2019 to today, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been 0.14. Hardly any correlation whatsoever, but if you zoom out a bit, you can see the last two cycles were led by gold, not by Bitcoin. So, we shall see.
One of the most fascinating charts I've seen recently is um the market cap of gold to M2. Now, we we use US M2 because we can get those data back into the early 1900s. Um so, if you look at that chart, gold hit an all-time high 2 weeks ago relative to M2. There have been only two times that we're even close to it.
One was at the end of the '70s, early '80s, when inflation here in the United States was raging at a double-digit rate, and so that was understandable, but that was the peak. And then gold went down for 20 years. The price went down for 20 years. And then the other peak was, I believe it was 1934, the Great Depression.
And what was happening then was a deflationary bust. Money supply was collapsing. So the denominator pushed it up dramatically cuz the gold the gold price was fixed back then. Uh so that was a deflationary bust and which defined the Great Depression. We're not anywhere near that. So that's how extreme gold has become.
And so I would say, if I were a betting person, and I am, as an investor, we have to It's not these are not bets without without being backed up by research, but um I would say the gold price has peaked. Uh again, famous last words. If if there something goes wrong in Iran, I I could be very wrong. But um absent that, I really do think the gold price has peaked.
Concerns about quantum computing have recently resurfaced, with some critics claiming future machines could break Bitcoin's cryptography. But according to Cathie Wood, the timeline for that risk is much longer than headlines suggest. Research from ARK shows that while quantum computing is progressing, it's still moving gradually.
If current trends continue, quantum systems capable of threatening Bitcoin may not appear until the mid-21st century, giving the ecosystem decades to adapt. Developers are already exploring upgrades to make wallets and cryptography quantum resistant. Meanwhile, Cathie emphasizes that the real technological acceleration isn't quantum computing.
It's happening in artificial intelligence. Could AI advancements create more immediate opportunities than crypto itself? And how prepared is Bitcoin to integrate with these emerging technologies? It's now on the AI hype. Is this hype? We do not believe so. Uh We believe we're in the middle of the or at the beginning, I should actually say, at the beginning of the most powerful technology revolution in history.
And the reason people are fearful is because they that the people and the investors, the analysts, who were around for the tech and telecom bubble in the late '90s, they are now the most senior people in in the industry. They're the gray hairs now. And the elder statesmen. And many of them are saying, and and this is because they don't do the kind of technology research around we which we have centered our research and investing.
But they remember there's a lot of scar tissue from back then. And now that they're so senior in the industry, we hear many of them say, "Been there, done that, not going to do that again." I think if you look at our research, and we just put out Big Ideas 2026 in January, you will see how early we believe we are in this technology cycle.
And as you said in your introduction, it's not just AI, but it's AI speeding up all of the other innovation platforms, robotics, energy storage, blockchain technology, and multi-omics technology. So, we believe that the investment cycle in most sectors around these innovations has really it's closer to the beginning than it is to the middle even.
Indeed, we see some early signs of disruption, especially what's happening to the software sector. They call it the SaaS apocalypse. Do you think that it's excessive and how are you selecting, if it's possible right now, between winners and losers? Yes, it's very interesting. Last year in our big ideas report, we showed a chart of the tech stack and it's comprised of the base layer, so chips and infrastructure, think data centers, and then the platform layer, think Palantir is the poster child helping enterprises now adjust to this new world and transform because of this new world.
And then there's software as a service. Now, if you looked at the last five years, you would have found that each of those categories grew very nicely in the double digits, but if you looked at incremental market share, what you would have seen was the incremental growth was faster in platform as a service and infrastructure as a service than software as a service.
And the reason is platform as a service, like that provided by Palantir, is giving enterprises a chance to customize their software. They actually help enterprises understand that each one has a natural language. Each enterprise speaks its own language and so the customization with proprietary data can deliver incredible productivity results, whereas SaaS is more one-size-fits-all and many companies really don't want that anymore.
They really understand the power of their own enterprises language and they want to exploit the productivity gains that will accrue. Now, in that chart last year, we still thought SAS would grow in the double digits and it still is growing in the double digits, but we believe the share shift now is happening faster than we originally thought and we believe the sell-off is therefore justified.
I know that value investors are beginning to poke around because the the multiples look very enticing. That is not our style. We will not be doing much of that, but we do understand everything for a price. I think the biggest risk is not adjusting to this technology revolution. If companies just try and get along, get through it.
A lot of people even in our own industry, I mentioned how many people went through the bubble and they just want to get through this and retire, but if they do not adjust their portfolios for this new reality, we think they're going to be doing their clients a disservice and that's true of all enterprises as a matter of fact and I think the reason many people aren't taking this seriously is enough is we've never seen this in our lifetimes.
We've never had a technology revolution in our lifetimes. Sure, we went through the internet, but that wasn't a revolution. That helped digitalize the way we do things normally. This is a complete revolution and I think those who are not adapting to it because they've never seen it in their lifetimes and are, you know, therefore underestimating the impact are going to be the losers.
For Cathie Wood, the excitement around artificial intelligence marks the early stages of a much larger technological revolution. She believes the world is entering one of the most powerful innovation cycles in history, where AI is not developing in isolation, but accelerating progress across robotics, energy storage, blockchain, and biotechnology.
These technologies are reinforcing each other, dramatically expanding productivity, and transforming industries like enterprise software, where companies are shifting toward more customizable data-driven solutions. Cathie emphasizes that investors who understand these signals early will be best positioned to benefit.
Are you ready to spot the opportunities this technological revolution creates? And how will AI's rapid integration reshape the global economy and crypto markets in the coming years? video.
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