저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 실러PE·버핏지수 등 밸류에이션상 고점 신호와 광범위한 지수 상승이 공존하는 복잡한 국면이라고 진단. 이란 휴전·호르무즈 재개 발표 전후 유가 선물 대량 숏 포지션 등 타이밍 의심 사례를 언급하며 CFTC 조사 가능성을 제기. 본인은 리스크오프 성향이며 SpaceX·Anthropic·OpenAI 등 IPO를 기다리며 차익실현 의향을 밝힘. 재정적자 확대와 연준의 유동성 공급(QE light)이 주식·금·비트코인을 떠받칠 것이라 주장. 비트코인 장기 강세를 낙관하며 2026년 내 신고가 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
The market is in a very complicated moment right now. If you look at historical indicators of value, so if you look at Schiller as an indication of value, it's peaking. If you look at the Buffett index, it's peaking. So there are things that when you look at it, look like all-time highs. And the problem with that is you would say, "Oh man, but there's this weird dispersion happening in the market." Dispersion means literally a few companies are hitting all-time highs.
I think it's like eight or nine, and everybody else is not. So it's a really complicated moment. It's hard to understand what's going on. There are moments in markets where everything looks bullish, but something feels off, and this is one of them. Right after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz during a temporary ceasefire, oil dropped over 10% while Bitcoin surged toward $78,000, and risk assets exploded.
On the surface, it looked like relief, but the timing raised serious questions. Minutes before the announcement, a massive $760 million short was placed on oil, perfectly positioned before prices collapsed. At the same time, aggressive Bitcoin accumulation was happening just ahead of the news. That raises a deeper question.
Is the market reacting to events, or is it being positioned before the public even knows what's coming? This is exactly what Chamath Palihapitiya is warning about. A market that looks strong on headlines, but is driven by hidden signals, concentrated players, and perfectly timed moves. When you combine geopolitics, sudden narrative shifts, and smart money positioning, it starts to look less like a natural cycle and more like a controlled environment.
Yeah, I mean, I'll just do it again, but I think the the Schiller PE, Nick, I sent it to you. Shows near all-time highs. And the second is the Buffett index, which is the sum of all uh US equities divided by GDP. Is also at all-time highs. So this would generally mean that you need to be increasingly a little bit more risk off.
But then the opposite side of that, and I sent you a third one, and this is why it's so confounding, is you have signals showing everything, which is which typically doesn't happen. And this is this dispersion point where when you see this performance and it's up 5% in the first, you know, half of April, typically the market is up almost 32% on average for the rest of the year.
And we were already up, as Sach said, you know, 7 and 1/2% already in the first couple days. graph, this is crazy. I don't even know what's going on here. Hey, this is just a this is just a dispersion. But the the idea of all of this is I think we're in a moment where you can find a piece of data to underwrite your bias.
And I think that's where there's a lot of danger. I don't know, for me personally, I'm generally more risk off right now. And more importantly, I'm waiting for these IPOs so that I can, to be very honest with you, delever and get some chips off the table. I think that it is crucial that the SpaceX IPO get done ASAP.
And then I think it's even more crucial that one of Anthropic and OpenAI front run the other one and get out first. Look, I think it's pretty straightforward, which is that in the wake of the meeting in Islamabad, that the market is feeling confident and pricing in that the war is going to get resolved.
The president also recently said that it's very close to being wrapped up. The military objectives are close to being achieved, and he's made it sound like it's going to be resolved. Yes, a deal was not signed in Islamabad. I always thought that was an unrealistic expectation that these two countries which are at war with each other, and in fact have had hostile relations for almost 50 years, are going to resolve all their differences in 24 hours.
It's not realistic. But the impression that the market I think has, and clearly is trading on this, is that that war is going to be what Donald Trump said, which is an excursion, and something that is on its way to being resolved, that they've made progress. And incredibly strong. I think by Tuesday, the market had recovered all of its losses since the start of the war.
I think it made a new high yesterday on Wednesday, and is making new highs, fresh highs today on Thursday. So, you just have to say that at the present time, the market thinks, and I I would consider the stock market to be the ultimate prediction market, that this war is on its way to being resolved.
The 760 millers oil short placed just minutes before the ceasefire news wasn't a one-off. It's the third major trade in weeks showing extreme timing. 500 millers before a delayed Iran strike, 950 millers before another ceasefire headline, and now again over 2.2 B total in positions right before key events.
That pattern has triggered a CFTC investigation into possible access to non-public information. At the same time, Bitcoin has shown the opposite behavior. Heavy accumulation during fear while oil is being aggressively shorted. This contrast is making some traders question whether markets reacting to news or being positioned around it.
Because underneath all of this noise, the real driver remains liquidity, and that may matter more than any single headline moving forward. Now, I think that much like Lyn Alden, where there's nothing really that stops this this train, meaning the fiscal spending, the fiscal dominance that we that we're running here in the United States especially, and then they're you know, the vast majority of of fiat-based currencies that the those central banks are they're they're dealing with this fiscal dominance, where you're we're running deficits.
Our deficits are massive. They're two two trillion dollars plus. If Trump gets his way, they'll be two and a half trillion dollars just with the added spending on defense this year. If interest rates stay high, then that 1.2 trillion dollars that we're spending on on interest on the debt goes to 1.5, eventually goes to two trillion.
As we as the older bonds mature and are re-rated at a higher higher yield, it just means that the government has to pay more to borrow that money. And because we're operating on deficits, we have to keep borrowing. So, again, that's the that's where we're headed. So, what happens to stocks and bonds?
Well, I believe that ultimately, Kyle, there's no choice but the government to continue to add liquidity to them to the base. We have to continue to add liquidity to the system in order to keep it going, make sure that there is no disruption or dysfunction in in particularly in the uh in the income fixed income markets and in the bond markets, particularly in the Treasury markets, which is why you've seen what we're what I like to call QE light, which is the Fed coming in and injecting liquidity into the system every single week by buying short-term Treasuries, buying T-bills.
What are they doing? They're adding balances to the banks. The banks need high enough balances to keep enough liquidity to keep the system going. You know, you've got this velocity of capital they've got to keep up with. And it's and it's measured as a percentage of GDP. And so, um if it gets low enough, they start adding more capital.
They're starting to pull back where they were. They were adding I think 40 billion dollars a month. Now, they're um they're adding a little bit less than that now, but that's a complete turn from taking 25, 40, 50, 60 billion dollars a month out of the system prior to this. So, they're adding already.
They're going to continue adding. It's just a question of where um and what kind of acronyms they use. And so, that just keeps the system going. It keeps stocks going. And uh you know, it keeps assets like gold and Bitcoin, they keeps them from from collapsing, meaning they're just they're what they're doing is they're just reflecting.
It's like a mirror long term, it's a mirror of the expansion of the money supply. The money supply expands and the prices of of things like gold and Bitcoin go up. And obviously houses, real estate, stocks, any asset goes up. And so, that's where we're headed. It's just a question of of the path that we get there.
And like you just pointed out, if we do have some sort of market shock, whether it's because of fears over AI, whether it's fears over quantum computing, whether it's uh some sort of conflict that that we are not expecting, some sort of black swan, or uh a credit event that we're that is out of left field, that creates a correlation to one event in the markets, everything will draw down.
Stocks, bonds, gold, silver, Bitcoin, everything. But, much like 2020, I think that would be a short-lived uh sell-off because of everything I just described with the problem with the debt that we have. And we've got to keep the system going, and the way to do it is to bring out the fire hose of liquidity and splash it on the markets again, just like they did in 2020, March April of 2020 into 2021 and 2022.
So, um that's what I expect either way. Either we have a constant flow of liquidity, or we have an event that that creates the need for a bazooka of it. So, either way, long term, that's why I'm so bullish on Bitcoin. So, number one is Bitcoin all-time highs before end of 2026. Yes or no? All-time highs before end of 2026.
Oof. I want to say maybe cuz I I think it's going to be it's going to be marching towards it. Whether or not it crests it, I don't know, but um it is going to be marching toward it for sure. The Fed cuts rates before the end of 2026. If yes, how much by the end of 2026? Mhm. I want to say they're going to cut 25 to 50 basis points before the end of 2026.
Okay. You think that's enough to kind of move move the needle? It's the right direction. Uh, yeah, I do. I think it's the it's the it's the signal that matters. Yeah. It's which which which path are we on? And if it's a path for more liquidity, that's good. Yeah. US strategic Bitcoin reserve. Are we actually going to purchase anything within the next 12 months or has it just been theater?
I think it's been a lot of theater and no, I don't think we will, unfortunately. Unfortunately, yeah. Next big company to announce a Bitcoin treasury strategy. You think it's going to be one of the Mag 7s or someone that no one really expects? Yeah, no, they're not ready, too. There's no incentive for the Mag 7s to do it.
So, no. I do expect though that there will be a name that that that comes up before the end of this year that would be surprising to people. I have no idea which what it would be, but I do expect that. What Lavish is pointing to goes beyond geopolitics or insider timing. It's a system built on constant liquidity expansion, rising debt, higher interest costs, and structural borrowing needs that eventually force more money into circulation.
Historically, that extra liquidity doesn't stay in banks. It flows into assets like Bitcoin when conditions align. Now, the missing piece is regulation. The Clarity Act could unlock major institutional capital, but delays or political friction could push adoption years back. So, here's the real question.
Is Bitcoin already pricing in this liquidity shift or is the bigger move still ahead? And do you think regulation is the real trigger for the next bull run or just a distraction from liquidity itself? For more daily dose crypto news, check out these two awesome videos on your screen. Click now and we will see you on the next video.
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