저자: 캐시우드 · 외국인
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2025년 10월 10일 바이낸스 소프트웨어 결함발 플래시 크래시(약 280억 달러 청산) 이후 디레버리징은 마무리 국면이라고 봄. 비트코인은 4년 주기 하락이 끝났고 80~90,000달러대에서 바닥을 다진 뒤 상승 전환 예상. 스테이블코인은 송금 역할에서 비트코인을 대체 중이나 비트코인은 디지털 금으로서 성장 여지가 큼(금과 상관계수 0.14). 세제 인하·AI·암호화폐 규제 완화로 2030년 실질 GDP 성장률 7%+ 전망. 데이터센터 투자는 2030년 연 1.4조 달러 규모로 확대 전망. 소프트웨어 시장은 SaaS 파괴 속에서도 성장하며 팔란티어가 PaaS 수혜주로 언급됨.
다듬은 글
As we assess the ecosystem right now, what we've undergone in the last two to three months are the reverberations after 1010. So 1010 October 10th was what in the crypto world is the flash crash associated with a software glitch on Binance that deleveraged the system to the tune of $28 billion. Uh there are a lot of people hurt and we think that that unwind uh and often when you go through an unwind, Bitcoin's going to be hit the hardest because it's the most liquid crypto asset.
We think that unwind is pretty much behind us. So now the only thing I think investors are worried about is especially institutional investors who understand that they must they must examine this as a new asset class. And so they're looking at what's called the 4-year cycle and we have been down. And the question is is the four-year cycle the downside of it over?
We think it's pretty much pushed through. Maybe we flatten out here in the 80 to 90,000 range base here for a while, but we think we think we'll be on our way soon. As markets brace for another potential government shutdown and await updates on the Clarity Act, investor attention is sharpening. In a new two-part interview, ArchInvest CEO Kathy Wood lays out her outlook for the first quarter heading into February, starting with what she calls the Fed's biggest misstep.
She argues policymakers wrongly assumed rapid economic growth would automatically fuel inflation when history suggests otherwise. According to Wood, recent inflation was largely driven by temporary supply shocks and tariff effects. And she believes growth and price stability can coexist in 2026 without permanently high interest rate.
The decisions made now, she warns, will shape markets and innovation for years to come. Wood believes this moment could flip the dominant narrative from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. Lower taxes in her view translate into higher returns on investment which then attract global capital. As capital flows in, productivity rises without reigniting inflation.
This is where she connects the dots. Deregulation in AI and crypto allows innovation to accelerate just as capital availability expands. Together, those forces could redefine economic growth and unlock a new wave of technological progress. against this backdrop would seize the crypto market, especially Bitcoin, entering a critical new phase.
With momentum quietly building and institutions positioning behind the scenes, she says the next leg of the cycle is approaching fast. After increasing her exposure during the last bare market, would remains firmly bullish on digital assets, calling crypto and technology her top investment themes. She urges investors to recognize that downturns often present the greatest opportunities, confident that the longanticipated surge is still ahead.
as she shares her outlook for the days and weeks to come. In the Bitcoin realm, it's been controversial this year because we had the draw down after the flash crash at 1010 in October. We think that a lot of the deleveraging associated with really that was a software glitch I think at Binance that that deleveraging automated deleveraging caused 28 billion dollars of carnage.
uh we think we've worked through that now and I think the main question on Bitcoiners minds is okay are we finished with the traditional four-year downdraft every four years a downdraft in uh the cycle we're beginning to think we are uh although we could base here in the 80 to90 uh000 range for a while but we do believe the next inflection is up.
And while I know I got we got a lot of publicity this year because we talked about stable coins usurping one of the roles we expected Bitcoin to play. Uh now we expected this 10 years ago before stable coins happened on the scene. But uh in terms of remittances and emerging market activity, we're seeing stable coins usurp that role that we thought Bitcoin would would provide.
That doesn't take away though from what we think ultimately will happen to Bitcoin. Bitcoin's role as digital gold has miles to go. Interestingly, and you'll see this in my new year letter, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has been almost non-existent over Bitcoin's life. 0.14. Nonetheless, we do think it is not only a riskon asset thanks to the new technology, but it is also a riskoff asset.
It's a hedge against inflation. Its growth rate is lower than gold's growth rate. And I'll bet gold miners are doing their darnest to get more of that stuff out of the ground now that they're being paid so much more. That can't happen with Bitcoin. And Bitcoin miners mathematically metered to top out at 21 million units.
So we do think it will be a very important store of value going forward particularly as we go through the intergenerational wealth wealth transfer that we expect during the next 5 10 15 years. We also had a lot more on DeFi and tokenized assets, stable coins, just a little bit more uh on that. I think we passed $300 billion globally in stable coins.
We saw a a very large increase in the in tokenization on public blockchains up to uh 19 billion. Now, that's a large increase. I think that was a tripling or maybe even more in the last year. But we ultimately think that's going to 11 trillion highlighted by public equities, sovereign debt and bank deposits.
So it's going to be a very big market and we are putting out a DeFi quarterly now to accompany our Bitcoin quarterly. Uh so stay tuned pay a lot of attention there because there's a lot of excitement brewing and there will be a lot of dislocations in the financial sector because of this wholesale shift really to a new technology and so we're pretty excited about that.
The other thing we'd like to highlight is, you know, these these companies their their productivity, the companies that are emerging, their productivity is astonishing. Tether, for example, last year uh we believed I believe delivered $50 million per employee. That is unheard of. Unheard of. But we think the capitalizing uh on all of these new technologies is going to drive productivity gains much higher than people can even postulate right now.
Kathy Wood says crypto is now experiencing the fastest adoption of any investable asset in human history. By the end of 2025, she expects more than 1.1 billion active crypto wallets, a rate of growth that's difficult to fully grasp and could represent the fastest accumulation of wealth ever recorded.
After decades of research, Wood argues that every chart and data set points to the same conclusion. Liquidity drives markets and crypto stands to be the top performing asset in that environment. She's been emphasizing for months that the key forces are finally aligning. As liquidity expands and adoption accelerates, Wood believes the market is entering a phase marked by powerful parabolic upside move.
In her view, this isn't a distant possibility. It's a setup forming right now, and investors who recognize it early may be positioned ahead of one of the most explosive periods in crypto's history. feels like it's a hype cycle because capital spending in the tech and telecom uh sectors as a percent of GDP is nearly as high now as it was during the tech and telecom bubble.
Uh but if you will remember the tech and telecom bubble laid fiber and most of it remained dark. We've we believe we're fairly early in this cycle. So let me uh before I go on to some of the productivity gains that we see uh also highlight that as a result of this investment boom uh and the increased productivity that we see we believe that real GDP growth will accelerate towards the 7% plus range uh by 2030.
uh the ingredients are all there and it is also a hallmark of technology revolutions that we see a step function change in GDP. Uh the 400 years until 1900 for example uh global GDP averaged 0.6%. And then in the late 1800s, early 1900s, of course, we had the railroads, uh we had telephone, electricity, the internal combustion engine, a technology revolution.
Uh that 0.6% real GDP growth went to 3% for the last 125 years. Uh and so that was a fivefold step up in GDP growth. We're saying maybe a two and a half uhfold step up, but I actually think that's conservative uh given the five innovation platforms evolving at the same time. Robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, uh multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology.
Uh and those innovation platforms are converging. uh and that's what's causing the great acceleration here. We believe that the data center uh in infrastructure cycle which uh is at about 500 billion now up from up two and a half times from prej chat GBT that that is actually going to $1.4 trillion dollars per year uh by 2030.
Thank goodness we had the chat GBT moment because that was the aha moment for all of us uh as we're saying wait a minute look what I can do with this this is a miracle and now we see as we've done the analysis and you'll find this in uh in big ideas that that $20 subscription that each of us pays here at ARC we also think and this is this is somewhat controvers sial because software stocks have been going through a very difficult time ironically through this AI boom and it is because of the disruption that AI is going to cause uh to the in particular SAS uh but all legacy software uh we think that uh software will grow the market will grow at roughly 19% in our bare case to uh I think it's 54% per year in our bull case uh up from 14% per year over the last 5 to 10 years.
Uh but you have to get on the right side of change. A lot of those software companies are in the private markets, uh, OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, uh, and and in the public markets. The real success story of course has been in the platform as a service part of the tech stack and that of course the poster child there is Palunteer.
So again have to get on the right side of change. I'm not saying that all the SAS providers are going to be crushed. It's going to be like all legacy players. You'll probably have, you know, the market consolidated and there'll be one very big player. Or as we get into fintech and blockchain technology and DeFi disrupting the traditional financial world, JP Morgan's probably going to be fine.
It is harnessing these technologies and it probably will consolidate the market and with that while many people are afraid given the robotics movement of you know and AI everyone being thrown out of jobs we disagree uh we think this is going to be one of the greatest opportunities for the entrepreneurial spirit in history uh especially because you can go to chat GBT or Grock and and say, you know, I think there's a huge unmet need for this, that, or the other product or service.
Think about it. Kathy Wood makes it clear that the crypto market has entered a new phase with real institutional capital now driving price action. As large investors step in, she expects significant gains to unfold in the coming months, reinforcing Bitcoin's role not just as a speculative asset, but as a long-term hedge against currency devaluation.
At the same time, growing momentum around crypto legislation signals that digital assets are becoming too important to ignore even as political resistance remains. Wood believes this is exactly why companies should be investing aggressively now while the upside potential is still underappreciated. Looking ahead, would sees far-reaching implications beyond short-term price move.
She estimates that the technological innovation arc is focused on represents a multi-t trillion dollar opportunity within global equity markets with emerging economies increasingly turning to digital currencies. In her view, decentralized finance is on track to disrupt and potentially replace many traditional financial services.
So, what's your take on Kathy Wood's outlook? Are we on the verge of a major crypto-driven transformation, or is the optimism running ahead of reality? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and don't forget to like and subscribe for more content like thi
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