저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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비트코인이 2025년 10월경 50만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 전망을 제시하며, 현재 비트코인은 아직 달러 연동 리스크자산으로 상관관계가 높아 리스크 관리가 중요하다고 주장. 트럼프 정책 기대로 위험선호가 확대되었고 하이일드 스프레드가 낮아졌으나, 인플레이션이나 재정적자가 터지면 리스크오프가 올 수 있다고 경고. 크립토 규제(FIT21)와 비트코인 현물 ETF 옵션 승인이 시장 상승 촉매가 될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
there will be a point, and it's probably in our lifetime, where it becomes an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. The other thing I'll say broadly about the market is that there's a tremendous amount of optimism about the economy. I think that's why you see risk spreads get crushed. Definitely, yeah.
As long as we keep seeing the kind of prognostications the Trump administration is putting out, I think people will mostly stay bullish. Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has reached a new all-time high of 93,471, thrilling investors and analysts alike. Among the most notable predictions for bitcoin's success in 2024 is one from billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya. At the start of the year, Chamath forecast during an episode of the All-In podcast that bitcoin could surpass $500,000 per coin by October 2025, 18 months after the halving event. Based on his analysis, bitcoin's price typically stabilizes for about six months after a halving, then surges into a massive bull run lasting another 12 months. By all accounts, the current bull run aligns perfectly with his projections.
However, this milestone is bittersweet for Chamath, who recently expressed regret on the All-In podcast about selling a portion of his bitcoin holdings prematurely. He estimates that decision has cost him $3 to $4 billion so far. His regret is compounded by a 2014 purchase, where he used $1.6 million worth of bitcoin to buy an empty lot in Lake Tahoe. By February 2021, those coins would have been worth $130 million, and today they are worth billions, far surpassing the lot's current value. Despite this costly mistake, Chamath remains one of bitcoin's most ardent supporters. He continues to hold a bullish outlook, predicting that bitcoin will one day become a fully uncorrelated, independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. He believes that in our lifetime, bitcoin will reach valuations in the millions per coin, solidifying its role as a cornerstone of the global financial system.
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Honestly, you know what I think about? I actually think about all the bitcoin I sold. I had a bunch of bitcoin in my funds when I managed outside capital. That's a three or four billion dollar mistake now, because my partners at the time capitulated, and I wanted to be a good team member, so we distributed it. It was profitable, but obviously I shouldn't have sold it. It would have made them a lot more money. And then I think about the land I bought. It was in the Wall Street Journal, I'm sure you can find it. How much is that worth now? Probably a couple hundred million, maybe more.
Chamath, can I ask you a question? Why do you say "sold bitcoin" as opposed to "converted bitcoin into dollars"? When you think about bitcoin just as a participant, do you think of it as a dollar-denominated asset that you buy, and you're eventually going to sell, turn back into dollars, and use the dollars? Or do you have the purist idea that bitcoin should be the digital gold currency and store of value in the future, that the dollar doesn't matter, and we shouldn't necessarily be talking about bitcoin's value in dollar terms, as something I'm going to eventually convert back?
It hasn't happened yet, so until it does, I think you have to view it as a very good gold proxy, but it's a largely dollar-denominated asset now.
Why do you see it going the other way? A lot of people thought that as a safe haven it should do well when the economic outlook is negative, but over the last couple of years it has traded as a totally correlated asset.
No, it's a totally correlated asset. There will be a point, probably in our lifetime, where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. That day will come, but that day is not now. I think it's very important to see the conditions on the field as they are, versus what you wish them to be. The reason is that it allows you to manage risk more appropriately. If you don't see it that way, then when something happens to the dollar complex, good or bad, or to rates, good or bad, or when something stimulative happens, good or bad, you won't react properly if you're in the business of managing it as a risk asset.
If you're in the "set it and forget it" bucket, and there are some people for whom that's great, none of these conversations matter. But most people are probably going to be motivated to do something. Whatever the psychology is that leads you to action, it's important to view things as they really are rather than how you wish they were. So I think the purists may eventually be right. I think they will be right at some point in my lifetime, but they're not right now, and that's why these things are correlated.
The other thing I'll say broadly about the market is that there's a tremendous amount of optimism about the economy. I think that's why you see risk spreads get crushed. Definitely. And as long as we keep seeing the kind of prognostications the Trump administration is putting out, I think people are going to be mostly bullish. I think this trade turns around when something actually breaks, either in the inflation picture or the deficit picture. If those things look like they're heading into 2025 and President Trump's actions can't course-correct them, then I think you'll see people go massively risk-off, which obviously won't be great for markets. But right now we're not at that point.
Entrepreneur, businessman, and angel investor David Friedberg attributes the surge in asset prices to president-elect Donald Trump's victory. According to Friedberg, market participants are optimistic that Trump's policies will stimulate investment and drive economic growth across all sectors. He aligns with Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, who anticipates significant deregulation under Trump, rolling back red tape that has hindered American businesses and stifled growth. Both Friedberg and Wood believe these deregulatory efforts will benefit industries like the digital asset space, which has faced scrutiny from regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission. Cryptocurrency investors are particularly enthusiastic about Trump's promise to dismiss SEC Chair Gary Gensler upon taking office. They view this as a potential catalyst for further growth and innovation in the crypto industry, both within and beyond the United States.
Stay tuned for more insights from Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks as they discuss the evolving economic landscape.
I think, like you said, it's not limited to crypto. Crypto is one of several markets that have been significantly affected by the outlook following Trump's election. I think Trump's election has a couple of key features that are changing market dynamics. One is that people view some of his policies as clearly stimulative, with lower tax rates and more deregulation. In theory, that should drive up investment and economic growth. The deregulatory nature on its own benefits markets that have been encumbered by regulatory oversight and challenges, like crypto, finance, and fintech. Those businesses are clearly expected to benefit significantly, because they'll be able to launch products more quickly and find ways to generate revenue that they might struggle to pursue under the current regulatory framework.
Then there's the element of things being inflationary. Tariffs are one factor, and if we don't get spending cuts fast enough, that has an effect on markets too. We're still seeing the 10-year Treasury sitting at about 4.5 percent, up from 3.5 percent, which is where we were right around the rate cut that began in September. Since those September cuts, we've cut 75 basis points, yet the 10-year Treasury yield has held high, which implies that persistent inflation is expected. In fact, the October inflation number accelerated again. It's going back up, not down. I think it rose to 2.6 percent from 2.3 percent the month before. These general effects, predicted from the Trump policy plans, are showing up in different markets. In equities, we're seeing more risk-seeking behavior. In the bond markets, because of the 4.5 percent Treasury yield, there's a really interesting dynamic. I sent out a link yesterday, but if you look at the spread between yields on U.S. Treasuries, which have historically been considered the risk-free rate, and the yield corporates have to pay to borrow money, we haven't seen a spread this low in 26 years. It's a 17-year low for the spread between the yield companies issuing junk bonds have to pay and Treasuries, and a 26-year low for investment-grade bonds. This means the market is either becoming much more risk-seeking, looking for more yield and moving into corporate debt because they think these companies are more likely to succeed and won't have higher default rates. Or, the alternative is that parts of the market are reassessing the risk-free nature of Treasuries themselves. If spending doesn't get under control, appetite for Treasuries could decrease. Either way, this spread has shrunk over the last couple of months, so we're seeing capital flood into risk-seeking assets, and this is clearly affecting crypto, equities, and bond markets across the board.
Sacks, your thoughts on crypto before we get into IPOs and M&A, if any?
Yes, just on crypto. Earlier this year, House Republicans already passed a framework for crypto regulation. It actually won 71 Democrats to join it. It was called the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, or FIT21. It would classify digital assets like crypto as commodities, regulated by the CFTC, if the blockchain they run on is "functional and decentralized." That's the key requirement. If their blockchain is functional but not decentralized, they would be considered securities and fall under the purview of the SEC. The crypto industry basically wants a really clear line for knowing when something is a commodity, and they want commodities governed like all other commodities, by the CFTC. That's what the Republican bill would do. With Republicans now winning the Senate, the prospects for that bill being enacted are greatly improved, especially since Sherrod Brown, who used to run the Banking Committee, just lost to Bernie Moreno. That was a seat in Ohio. Elizabeth Warren will still object to the legislation, but she'll have much less influence. And as you said, it's not clear Gary Gensler will be sticking around at the SEC for very long.
So the bottom line is that we're close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress, which is what the crypto industry has been asking for. The days of Gensler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are, and then prosecuting them, are about to be over. I think that's why crypto markets are rallying.
Bitcoin investors are celebrating a major milestone: the approval of spot bitcoin ETF options. Michael Saylor, executive chairman of MicroStrategy, predicts this will accelerate institutional adoption and drive bitcoin prices sharply higher. On November 16, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas announced that the CFTC had cleared the way for these options, the second major regulatory hurdle after the SEC's approval in September. With the OCC now granting final approval, trading could begin as early as this week, according to Nasdaq's head of ETP listings, Allison Hennessy. No firm date has been confirmed, but Hennessy noted that the process typically moves quickly once all approvals are in place.
The initial approval covers the iShares Bitcoin Trust, but analysts like James Seyffart suggest other bitcoin ETFs may soon follow. Jeffrey Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise, called the launch of bitcoin ETF options a game-changer, describing it as the most extraordinary upside volatility in financial history. Park emphasized that regulated options trading enhances bitcoin's financial utility, unlocking opportunities for leverage and sophisticated strategies. He also highlighted bitcoin's fixed supply and inherent volatility as key factors that could amplify its growth in this newly regulated market. Park concluded by noting the unprecedented nature of this development: a regulated market with leveraged options on a supply-constrained asset. He warned that such a scenario could lead to extreme market behavior, possibly even triggering temporary shutdowns of regulated platforms.
As the market braces for this next chapter, the excitement and anticipation among investors continue to grow. Let us know your thoughts on this historic development in the comments below.
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