저자: Tom · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 중앙은행 자산 확대·주식 밸류에이션 경고에 동의하며, 중앙은행 정책이 시장을 좌우하고 장기적으로 금·주식이 유망하다는 입장. [레이 달리오 발언 정리] 달리오는 경제와 시장이 중앙은행과 정부 정책에 의해 주도된다고 주장하며, 중앙은행 대차대조표가 크게 팽창할 것이라고 봄. 달리오는 자본시장이 더 이상 자유시장이 아니라고 봄. 달리오는 애플·페이스북 등 성장주의 PER이 40배 이상까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 달리오는 1월에 현금은 쓰레기(cash is trash)라고 했고, 향후 10년간 주식과 금 매수를 선호함. 달리오는 달러 대안이 등장해 투자자가 달러를 버리면 미국에 최악일 것이라고 언급. [중앙은행 자산 현황] 일본은행이 정부채 50% 이상을 보유, GDP 대비 자산 비중 130% 수준까지 증가 전망. 연준 자산 비중은 20% 미만에서 46~48%까지, ECB는 40% 미만에서 60% 이상으로 증가 전망. [고용지표] 6월 비농업고용 발표 후 실업률 11.1%로 하락 발표되었으나, BLS 집계 오류로 실제 실업률은 약 1%p 높아 12.1%일 가능성 제기. 영상 진행자는 영구적 일자리 감소 지표가 가장 중요하다고 강조하며 향후 실업 증가를 예상. [시장 반응 및 기술적 관찰] 비농업 발표 직후 S&P500은 갭상승 후 3150 저항선에서 밀려 하락 마감. 공휴일 직전 주 상승 경향이 있으나 독립기념일 월요일은 통계적으로 약세 경향. 연준 대차대조표는 3주 연속 감소(약 1,630억 달러). 변동성지수(VIX)는 연휴 직전 급등, 달러지수는 비농업 후 강세. [리스크·조건] 달러 대체 통화 등장 시 미국 경제에 큰 충격 가능, 중앙은행 정책 축소가 어려움. 실업률 집계 신뢰성 문제 제기. [출연자 전망] 중앙은행 정책은 멈추기 어려우며, 금과 주식 등 성장 자산이 장기적으로 유망하다고 봄. 단기 주가 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
what's up traders Tom here with another video today we'll be discussing our thoughts on billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio s recent comments about the Federal Reserve boosting stock market and other asset prices our capital markets ever going to become free again stay tuned so today we'll be covering our thoughts on radios comments as well as the non-farm payroll figures potentially being lied about again in terms of unemployment figures and our week ahead thoughts for the S&P 500 and stock market here we have the growing central bank presence amid heightened uncertainty and this is core to our discussions about Ray Dalio comments which will be coming soon on this channel we've discussed several times how the Bank of Japan has led the way in terms of central bank policies on what is capable under the monetary system in fact the Bank of Japan now owns over 50 percent of all government bonds as a share of the total outstanding amounts on the left-hand side over here we see an even more interesting statistic however and that is that we are seeing a massive increase from the Fed and the ECB as well as the Bank of Japan over this crisis but look at what is being projected moving forward so we have the Fed moving from under 20% of asset ownership to potentially upwards of around 46 to 48 percent asset ownership over the next couple of years we have the ECB moving from under 40 percent to upwards of 60 plus percent in terms of asset ownership and more importantly we see what is capable on the right-hand side here with the Bank of Japan now moving upwards of potentially 130 percent of GDP ownership within the central banks asset prices that is phenomenal but it shows you the grade elyos most recent statement and why he believed that the balance sheets are set to explode over the next couple of years so let's unpack radios recent statements in terms of his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday basically Ray Dalio is saying that the economy and the markets are now driven by central banks in coordination with the central government no surprises here it is absolutely proven right now that central bank and government policies are driving stock market assets as well as other capital markets while Ray Dalio doesn't say that this didn't need to happen in fact he does say it did need to happen his big thing is that we are going to see central bank balance sheets explode and this is going to have a scale of different consequences where is this money going to go well he argues it's going to go into certain asset classes and of course one of those is going to be stock market in fact he believes that the investors might feel a sticker shock when they see price to earnings ratios north of 40 but that is no less implausible than zero interest rates so he believes that things like companies like Apple companies like Facebook and these growth stocks could hit upwards of 40 p/e just because of the central bank's monetary policies around the world we're not going to have any traditional way necessarily of doing market valuations is his argument effectively we'll look at a company and we might say it's worth as much in the old style of doing evaluation but that is not going to work anymore and he famously said that cash is trash in January and of course his big thing is that he wants to buy stocks and he wants to buy gold he believes that those are two very compelling investments over the next decade so Ray Dalio his biggest possibly most shocking statement in all of this other than of course he believes that capital markets are not free markets any more is what if there was a compelling alternative to the United States dollar what if investors piled in and purchased that dollar instead of purchasing United States dollars that would be terrible for the United States what we would end up saying is that the biggest disruptor to the US economy over any period really in history this would force the Fed to make so many different unprecedented policy changes and would be incredibly detrimental so that's something in a story to watch over the next decade so radios comments really also come into what is the Fed going to do over time so on Thursday last week we saw the non-farm payrolls numbers and on paper they look good it looked like everything was going okay but Ray Dalio is basically saying we're going to see explosion in assets sheets we already saw that in the first image that I showed you with the expectation being that the Federal Reserve the ECB Bank of Japan and other central banks won't be able to stop this printing now they've begun no one's been able to really stop it or pull it back even with growth in the economy we see that from the quantitative easing that happened during the GFC so technically we're seeing US claims dropping in terms of a curve over time since the crisis started they've dropped over time one of the numbers I'm really looking at though is actually the unemployment level in terms of permanent jobs losses that's the one that I think is the key number in the u.s.
obviously this furlough and furlough means it's kind of gone zone halt and the job is theoretically possibly there in the next couple of weeks we just saw the US economy open and then close in certain states for certain industries and I expect this number to increase over time this is the GFC over here to the left and we can see what happened with the unemployment numbers and how bad they really got in terms of permanent jobs losses and this is where we're at now in this crisis so expect this to raise and this is the number that everyone should be looking at because it's the most important number of them all but what about that jobs number was that jobs number pretty good well it sounded good and everyone was talking about how great it was but as we saw the stock market did not move necessarily as well on the clothes as would be expected from such a great non-farm payrolls so it's said that unemployment rate has fallen from eleven point one percent down from thirteen plus percent the month before the thing is though if we actually break down the statement what you'll notice is that there is this statement in the figures and this is where the lie potentially is there the headline unemployment rate was understated slightly due to accounting error at the Bureau of Labor Statistics workers who still have jobs but have not been working are being counted as employed even though they are supposed to be considered unemployed under the BLS rules well that's the same as calculation error that they had in the May report and that is pretty worrying in fact I find that unbelievable that they could do it again the other thing that in this it says here however the BLS has said the discrepancy declined considerably in June making the actual an unemployment rate only about one percentage point higher than the reported level so that would mean that the June unemployment should be twelve point one percent not 11.1% well that's pretty ridiculous how are they able to release these figures and then tell everybody that it's all okay and everything so great yet there are even admitting that it's the wrong number it seems unrealistic and it's kind of like a mystery yeah but this is what is actually happening in fact some people are actually saying that even more people aren't employed than even these numbers say in fact it could be upwards of forty seven percent of American adults a kind of like half employed half not employed right now some people are saying and that's pretty crazy when we're looking at the Great Depression figures too now but more importantly what would this mean for the Federal Reserve and the government's well we've already seen they'll do anything that needs to be done in terms of fiscal policy if they continue to do that Ray Dalio statements about the asset purchases is so true ballooning asset purchases gone completely out of control and they'll have to to try to pull the economy back into order so we'll have to watch these numbers and this story continued to escalate that's for sure so let's now just talk about what the stock market actually did off the non-farm payrolls result now I've always said the stock market's smarter than people think the price action as in the prices on these candles shows us the way to giving us an idea of what is really happening so we saw that a Nishal kind of gap up off the open in terms of the non-farm payrolls result it hit our resistance over here at 31 50 and then it bounced down after that and after the market closed in fact the futures ended even a little bit lower and this is interesting because basically the initial hype wore off very quickly when people realized hey is this number real or is this number slightly different to what we expect another thing that we've discussed a few times on this channel is that we usually see an increase into the week of a public holiday and of course we did see so again we saw some sell-off near the end but actually the statistics going around to do with holiday research results and this one's from 2017 but what we actually see is that Independence Day often has a negative Monday connotation to it did we have the run in during the week and then Independence Day specifically has a pretty bad Monday on several times so it's just an interesting kind of stat so what's most interesting about this little sell-off here that happened is not only are people probably interpreting that non-farm payroll result and saying hey what happened here but also we've seen the Federal Reserve's balance sheet again decrease was that number better than expected yeah it was pretty good but of course it wasn't as good as they made out but the Federal Reserve is trying to win back this QE they're trying to say okay we might have overreacted at the start we need these bullets long term because we're gonna have to be in this for the long term so they're trying to wind it back and this marks the third week of actually asset negative in fact it's negative now a hundred and sixty three billion dollars very interesting fact the Fed is unwinding because there may be confident that they're very happy with the stock market is and they know they need this later on as Ray Dalio often mentions so what about the volatility index well the volatility index also spiked coming into the long weekend that shows that the market is starting to go all hey what's really going on here so what about the dollar index well the dollar index also strengthened after the non-farm payrolls result after the first sell off it then strengthened as people pulled out in the market in fact it's got a little bit of a trendline here and in tomorrow's video we'll talk about this we'll talk about all of our week ahead thoughts and we'll talk about how to bring this all together into technical analysis scenarios as well to summarize I think Ray Dalio is absolutely on the mark in terms of his decisions and what he's saying about the markets the Federal Reserve have begun something they cannot stop and this goes for all central bank policies around the world it's going to be very difficult for them to do that and things like gold and things like the stock market and other growth assets could be good investments over the long term if you enjoyed today's video why not subscribe hit that Bell and of course like and comment down below see you in the next video everybody have a great weekend bye
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