저자: TomLee · 외국인
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2022년 9월 초 시장은 약세로 출발했지만 인플레이션이 예상보다 빠르게 둔화될 수 있어 긍정적 반전 가능성이 있다는 주장. 인플레이션 둔화 근거: 휘발유 가격 하락으로 월간 CPI가 약 0.6%p 낮아질 수 있고, ISM 가격지수가 8월 급락해 PPI가 몇 달 내 0%에 가까워질 수 있으며, CPI 바스켓의 약 42%가 이미 디플레이션 상태라고 설명. 연준 및 채권시장: 연준이 금리를 높게 오래 유지할 것이라는 컨센서스는 타당하나, 채권시장은 내년 금리 정점과 인하를 가격에 반영 중이고 향후 2개월 인플레이션 스왑은 디플레이션을 예상. 인플레이션이 빠르게 하락하면 연준 강경 기조에 대한 우려가 완화될 수 있음. 리스크 요인: 실적 하향 조정, 연준 회의, 강한 달러, 100달러 부근 유가 등 리스크가 있으나 6월 대비 유가(180달러 전망 → 9월 86달러)와 유럽 에너지 수급 우려가 완화된 점을 언급. 투자자 포지셔닝이 가볍고 심리가 부정적이어서 기술적 여건 개선 시 증시 반등 가능성. 밸류에이션: 10년물 금리 3.2% 수준이면 PE 약 35배가 여전히 정당화되며, 10년물이 2.7%로 내려가면 약 40배까지 가능. S&P500이 PE 15배로 돌아갈 필요는 없고 17배도 가능하다는 입장. 실적 전망: 경기침체 시 실적이 하락할 수 있으나 연착륙이나 성장 둔화(growth recession)라면 S&P500 실적이 꺾일 필요는 없다고 봄. 비용 절감 기조가 유지되어 내년 주당순이익이 240달러 수준을 유지할 수 있다고 주장. 일각의 20~30% 실적 하락 컨센서스에는 동의하지 않음. 기술주: 나스닥 6거래일 연속 하락(2019년 이후 최장) 상황. 기술주는 유동성이 높아 리스크 회피 시 매도되지만, 인플레 압력 완화와 경기침체 회피가 확인되면 기술주가 가장 먼저 매수될 주요 그룹이라고 전망. 애플을 시장의 핵심으로 언급.
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sinking to start september but there could be a positive surprise in store so says cnbc contributor tom lee of fundstrat global advisors with me here at post nine you're always trying to find the positive within the negative some say it's getting harder to do that uh yeah i mean the last few weeks it's been hard to find anyone that uh is positive right i think they've all been uh gone into hibernation early winter there are a few people you know here and there yeah but what allows you to remain as such well i think that it still comes down to our belief that a lot of the pessimism about inflation is anchoring negative sentiment we know that this is also sort started part of the fed's default view and we're coming into september which is a seasonally tough month but in the past week we've gotten some data that i think really shows inflation could be falling far faster than expected you know one gasoline now we as we close that month it might subtract six tenths the ism prices collapsed for the month of ju august and that really points to potentially ppi going to almost zero percent um in a few months and then i think the third thing that's pretty encouraging is if you look at sort of the composition of cpi you know 42 of the basket is actually now an outright deflation so i i would say i think there's still positive surprise coming and it's the fact that inflation could cool a lot faster and history shows once it starts breaking it falls very quickly what if the surprise is that uh the fed is more resolute than people want to believe that you know there's a bit of denial going on as to the fed doing what j-pal suggests they will and sticking with it and keeping rates higher for longer and keeping rates higher for a lot longer and a lot higher than people think uh i mean i'd say that that's the consensus view and i think it's appropriate the bond market still is not completely convinced as you know because the bond market is pricing fed funds peaking next year and then some cuts coming and if you look at the inflation swaps market for the next two months the inflation swaps market is forecasting deflation so outright prices falling so i think that it's possible in the next couple months the idea that inflation's sticky and the fed has to therefore stay tough is going to be modified by the idea that inflation could be coming down very quickly so what do i do with the other risks because september seems fraught with them we get a great reminder today uh an awful reminder but a big reminder of that with with the pipeline i've got the potential for earnings revisions i have the fed meeting i've got the dollar which remains especially strong i've got oil still hanging around 100 with the propensity perhaps going higher none of that matters uh no they all matter but i think markets needed some perspective you know in june people talked about gasoline it going to six dollars or seven because people forecast oil going to 180 now we're in september and oil's at 86.
um the concerns about europe i mean they're still there but as you know just a few months ago people were forecasting much greater shortages and it looks like europe's made some progress filling up and uh i would say just from a market history i know seasonality is tough but we already know investor positioning is actually really light and sentiment's negative so i think as technicals improve the dollar doesn't have to keep going up and if interest rates break i think a lot of these could add up to stocks rallying pretty hard what multiple is justified do you think for the market i think the best way to still judge the pe is to look at the tenure and the 10-year if it's at 3-2 is still a roughly you know 35 pe market i don't know why we would say the s b has to go to 15 times again i think if the 10-year drifts back down to 2-7 you're talking to 40 pe for the 10-year i'm not sure why the s p p e has to go to 15.
okay so let's assume it stays that they can be at 17. and that makes sense to you some would say there's no reason that earnings could stay anywhere close to 250 and that they need to come way down and even if the multiple stays higher than 15 earnings coming way down drag the market down i mean that's not like a far reach that's right uh earnings next year is unknown um i think if we have a recession then earnings could fall but if it's a soft landing or even a growth recession that doesn't mean s p earnings actually have to falter because one companies are producing more output with you know not a huge increase in employment and there's been a lot of cost discipline that came out of the pandemic and i don't think they lost that cost discipline so we've we've been seeing it in the results earnings have been surprising so i don't know maybe earnings could still be 240 next year i mean you're starting to get some pre-announcements from you know not insignificant companies well i just don't know why we should believe that that's not going to continue as you get closer to the season uh i mean a lot can happen the next 12 months and i think that if the fed does hold rates at four and doesn't continue to tighten i'm not sure that that's a scenario that causes earnings to have to dramatically weaken they could slow but again i think that there's a lot of consensus belief that earnings have to fall 20 or 30 percent you still like uh tech here because what are we six straight down days for the nasdaq as of today i think that's the longest streak in since 2019 that's right i mean i i would say tech's been under a lot of pressure it is one of the more liquid groups it's very easy to sell i mean for instance apple trades more in a day than all of europe so when people are de-risking they are going to sell large cap tech but i think it works in the other direction that if if investors start to believe inflationary pressures are easing and we can have a rally in place and no recession one of the big groups everyone will start buying is tech all right we'll see i mean your guy newton uh says apple's the key to the market at least right now we'll talk to you soon that's tom lee joining us here in overtime have a good long weekend still ahead the bull case for tech
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