저자: JeremyGrantham—영상진행자발언제외,인용인물기준 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 거품 붕괴는 아직 끝나지 않았으며 시장은 추가 하락과 경기 침체 위험에 있다는 경고. [핵심 주장] 그랜덤의 경고: 주택·주식·채권 3대 자산이 작년 말 역사적 고평가 상태였고, 인플레이션·금리 충격·원자재(에너지) 충격이 위험 요인이라고 설명. 한 달 주가 반등 후 재하락 패턴이 거품 붕괴의 단계별 특징이라는 해석. [근거 수치] 그랜덤 운용자산: 2015년 3월 약 1,180억 달러 → 2020년 12월 650억 달러로 감소. S&P500: 연초 대비 최대 약 25% 하락 언급, 6월 이후 반등 후 재하락. 과거 사례: 1929년 대공황 약 60% 하락, 닷컴 시기 기술주 거품, 2008년 부동산 거품. [언급 종목·방향] S&P500: 단기 하락 가능성(반등 후 추가 하락 시나리오). 미국 주식 전반: 약세 지속 우려. [조건·리스크] 거품이 1930년대처럼 통제 불능이 될지는 불확실하다고 언급. 인플레이션 고착, 금리 급등, 에너지 쇼크가 주된 리스크. [출연자 전망] 그랜덤: 매우 어려운 경제·금융 국면이 시스템에 의해 정리되기 전까지 올 것이라 예상, 이번 사이클이 최악은 아닐 수 있음. [영상 내 비금융 주장] 정치·선거 관련 발언이 대부분으로, 종목·자산 가격 예측과 무관.
다듬은 글
Greetings to all who follow the channel! Another legendary mega-investor in the Stock Market comes forward with this gem: "Super bubble hasn't burst yet, my God!" They really want to worry us! Okay, what's this super bubble story all about? So there you have it! Jeremy, the legendary investor, said this, signaling housing, stocks, and bonds, inflation, rising rates, commodity shocks as the main risks.
Did he forget something? And once again, we were very happy to be able to pass on this information at such a crucial moment in our history, and obviously, a guy like him... agree with my humble opinion. So, what an interesting thing! But who is he? A quick review on Wikipedia tells us that he is a British co-founder and chief investment strategist at Grandfan Mayo, Evan Suit, an asset management firm in Boston.
He had over $118 billion in assets under management in March 2015, which has halved that number to $65 billion in assets under management in December 2020. He has been a vocal critic of various responses. The governmental global financial crisis of 2007-2010 influenced one of the world's first index funds in the early 1970s.
So, you see, folks, always being impartial, this issue is very interesting because he has already lost a lot of money over this period. Could it be that he has been waiting for this crisis for a long time? That would also be a very important point to make. Right, as always, these guys don't say what they think unless they are completely invested in these things.
In 2011, he was included in the ranking of the 50 most influential, so we can say that he is one of the old ones, right? I always showed at the end of the video that he certainly knows how things work, but like many investors at the end of the cycle, he is losing a lot of money. The famous investor, the always excessive bubble in asset prices, is about to enter its final phase.
But according to an article by the founder of asset managers, he said in a note that the increase in US stocks from mid-June to August fits the common bear market bullish pattern after a sharp initial decline, which is something that always happens here on the channel. The issue is like a sniper, right?
When you have big drops, then you have big rises. But also, when we look at the medium term, I think in this case it's not long-term, but more medium-term, because when we make that comparison with the 2008 crash, it's really very similar, right? You have a big drop, you have an improvement, and then comes the second blow, which is the market going from fear to panic.
Okay, folks, and unfortunately, I really say this with great sadness because I know this affects the lives of many people in a very negative way, but it's part of a new economic cycle, folks. It 's not the end of the world, so let's not jump off a bridge, folks. It's all within the context of economic cycles.
This occurs before the economy really starts to deteriorate. So, what a thing, right? Another issue that matches those 2008 graphs, so Grantham from '83, folks, is he one of those old men who's always laughing? Oh, for sure, right? Seeing more problems ahead because of a dangerous mix, folks. How many times haven't we talked about this here on the channel, right?
The flavor here is the bubble of everything, it doesn't have a specific branch, right? So, back in 2008 it was real estate, in 2000 it was technology, now it's everything together: stocks, bonds. Real estate is overvalued, combined with a commodity shock, Fred's aggressive attitude. So, all the problem we had, right?
Central banks stepped in to do, you know what, right? Once and for all, all three main asset classes—housing, stocks, and bonds—were historically overvalued at the end of last year. And if you take that away, what's left? Just bonds, which already represent an overwhelming part of the world's assets, right?
So, if you add stocks and housing, I don't know if housing still outperforms bonds, maybe bonds are still bigger than housing, and all of them are having very serious problems now. We're seeing an increase in inflation, a rate shock like in the early 70s, and to make matters worse, we have a commodity shock, an energy shock, as painfully seen between 1972 and 2007, right?
Between 72 and 2007, right? Commodity shocks have always cast a long, suppressing shadow on personal growth; it's the basis of everything. Right, the industry there needs energy. The poor average citizen, who already pays 80% in taxes per year, how is he going to pay for energy? We're talking about basic things, right?
Speaking of which, folks, it's another weekend, and we've brought some very interesting articles. People are talking again about the feed. Will he have the courage to raise it by 75 basis points? So, all this that we're talking about, folks, with one more thing that already puts a lot more pressure on the markets, people will accept less risk.
Market news: only R$24.90 per month now with payment slip. Everything is there, and also our Telegram group to join if we go through more complicated days. We'll even open discussions, and don't forget to subscribe, like, and comment here on YouTube. That really helps us a lot. On Instagram and Twitter, we're posting things every day, so it's really worth following us too.
But, right? Does he really know the business? He's a specialist in bubbles in the financial market. He predicted at the beginning of the year that benchmark stocks would fall 50% and a historic collapse. The UFP 500 fell almost 100% in June. 25% before it starts shooting up again, right? So the worst thing there is, right folks, for those who invest in the futures market, is this, right?
It's a crash in installments, falling 50k, 25k improves, then falls more, folks, it's terrible for those who invest in the futures market, right? However, US stocks are falling once again, closing on Wednesday, the fourth consecutive session, with strategists warning investors that the market has not yet bottomed out.
Only a few market events in an investor's career really matter, and among the most important of all are the super bubbles, which bring all this that we talked about, right folks? According to him, the collapse of a super bubble occurs in several stages: first, a pullback like in the first half of the year, then a slight rally follows, right?
That one seems to be over, right folks? Every day now the American stock market closes in the red. But it's very little, right? Very little. Finally, the fundamentals break and the market reaches its low point, and then comes the big problem. My bet is that we will have a very difficult economic and financial moment before this is washed away by the system.
What I don't know is if this gets out of control like what happened in the 30s... It's very well contained, as it was in 2000, it's somewhere in the middle, right? So we can't forget, right folks, that in 2030, what we've always talked about here on the channel, a crisis that left people unemployed, right, in need, and the current crisis due to the virus, right?
On the contrary, wow, it made assets explode in value, my God, it made people not want to work, right, because they have some extra income there, so it was a complete reversal, right? I would say then that there are three examples: the 1930s, when people really went through a lot of hardship; the 2000s, when central banks went there and saved everyone; and the 2020s, right?
Not only did the banks save everyone, but they also gave economic conditions so that people didn't even want to work. There's any possibility of this ending well, right? Of course not, each cycle is different and unique. But each historical parallel suggests that the worst is yet to come. Right, my friends, so there's another warning from a great investor for those interested in options.
We have a monthly subscription; if you don't know anything about options, we also have a short course, right? In case you're unsure, if not... If you have no prior knowledge, take the course. If you don't like it, you have seven days to get your money back. All the links are in the description. Right now, everyone's cursing Morpheus, yes, love, there's no way around it, folks.
We're at a key moment in our history, in Brazil and the world. We have very important elections, right? What will happen is that we're going to maintain what we're seeing in the whole world, right? A chaos, and Brazil, incredibly, is standing out positively. Or let's choose a well-known model, right?
In America, especially in South America, the model of Argentina, Venezuela, Chile... now, folks, look at this little shirt at the end of the tunnel. They rejected that communist constitution; two-thirds of the population said they don't want it. What a thing, right? That's because of the propaganda they did there, my friends.
How good, right? At least they woke up to that. But here, the pieces continue to move, right folks? The Moreira Sales brothers make a million-dollar donation to more than 20 left-wing candidates. Oh my god, oh my god, they're telling me that bankers want the left in power. People, for God's sake, if you don't follow our little channel, start following it!
It 's obvious, folks, that those who bring us out of the world want the left, right? They want the left. The left divides these issues of race and gender, and they serve to make the population dislike each other, right? So that's sensational, folks. I use it a lot. Rich people want, right? A fat, bureaucratic state where nothing works.
That's right, because then the small entrepreneur has no chance, no opportunity. In a society like that, it's no coincidence that in the United States, in Europe, everywhere in the world, right? In the West at least, these guys support all the left-wing candidates, right? So if you really want to make money, folks, especially in Brazil, right?
If you want to make money, oh, I'm going to start a company, man, are you crazy, are you crazy, are you crazy? If you want to make money, there's no need to throw it in people's faces. Just become a left-wing candidate, you'll be sought after by powerful, necessary politicians, right? Old foxes, the famous old foxes, right?
And then, my friend, you'll make a lot of money, right? A lot of money. If you come with the talk that you don't like rich people, you don't like white people, you don't like men, then my friend, stardom is your destiny. Wonderful, folks! And for Speaking of which, October is coming, and even Veja magazine, which is openly known today for supporting the "little tucanos" (PSDB party members), Doria's buddies, Aécio's comrades, all that stuff, they're even saying that Bolsonaro is already ahead of Lula.
The only poll that still shows Lula ahead is the one commissioned by shameless people, Datafolha, nobody believes it anymore. Datafolha said in the last election that Haddad would win against everyone in the first round, Bolsonaro would lose to everyone, and it was all wrong, wasn't it? The people woke up.
Dilma Rousseff, remember? Who remembers that, guys? Dilma Rousseff, my friend, would have been the most voted Senator in Brazil. Sorry, folks, it's complicated, you know, but that's it, nobody believes Datafolha anymore. They changed it. They put in the IPEC Institute. Look how beautiful, right? And then Lula, in the last debate, almost had a meltdown, didn't he?
He fainted. I don't know, I thought he had an excess of you know what. And even so, they continue, it's not growing. But Bolsonaro dropped a point, right folks? Nobody believes him anymore, even Veja magazine is giving up. So you can see, imagine what it must be like, right? The real advantage is...
don't forget that in Chile, right? It was the same thing. The media there were saying that the constitution would be widely altered and approved, and the people rejected it by two-thirds, my friends, it 's no joke, okay? And to close, look at the level of desperation. People, look at Felipe Neto there, right?
I've said it here several times, I never imagined a stance like this from him, right? Even being who he is, for sure, I won't even say what I think, right? Because I think he changed his opinion so much in four years, but he became like this, look, if you go to his profile, right? He's a Lula supporter, right?
The guy is a real PT supporter, Lula, Lula, Lula! And then he put there that, "Wow, we can't, can't we, become our enemies? We ca n't keep making fake news?" And that creature, right? Nobody knows where he came from, that Danones guy, made a huge fake news story, and he said, "No, we have to, because otherwise we..." It's going to lose, and then the left itself is destroying itself, because there's no way around it, there has to be a time when you have to separate the wheat from the chaff.
So if you believe even minimally that you shouldn't become the worst thing in the world, you're going to oppose certain positions. And there you have it, I'm not even going to read that because what if I say something wrong? You know how YouTube is, too, but seriously, my question is, do you really need to research something?
Do you really believe that if Lula had any chance of winning, people would be cannibalizing each other like this? Of course not, my friends, of course not. And then our graph, we're always living history. How far will this current drop go? Will we overcome the 60% drop back in '29? Or was this one even heavier, folks?
One point four years, 57% drop. Drops tend to be shorter and deeper, just like the highs, so we never forget, folks, it's cyclical. So look at the highs, 10 years, 400%, so it's a lot, isn't it? Don't let yourself be carried away by those sayings that it's all the end of the world, that everything is ending.
It's cyclical, it will fall a lot and then disappear a lot, and that's how we continue, right? Looking at finances, it's wonderful, folks. So what can we do amidst all this craziness? Study, study, and study. So our technical analysis continues to be wonderful. I'd like to point out a course from the Yellow Crypto team, a truly sensational group.
A year-long course and even a bonus PDF and e-book. So it's really worth it, folks. Have a great week everyone.
Comments 0