저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2024년 경기침체 가능성(50%)과 미국 무역적자·임금·금리 등 지표를 근거로 침체가 임박했다고 주장. 침체기에는 워런 버핏식 역발상 투자(2008년 골드만삭스 투자, 현금 보유)가 유효하며, 필수소비재·헬스케어·유틸리티 같은 방어 섹터에 기회가 있다고 설명. 비상금 3~6개월치 확보 후 투자 고려, 경기 회복기 분산·적립식 투자 권장. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
so the word is out and it's not just speculation anymore with a staggering projection showing a 50% probability of the United States entering another economic recession in 2024 the reality we're facing becomes clearer by the day even though the US economy showed resilience in the fourth quarter of 2023 with a GDP growth of 3.3% city has confirm the impending threat of a downturn by stating that we are headed straight into a recession without any sign of a soft Landing what makes a recession interesting is that although most people view it as a financial disaster those who are well prepared can actually take advantage of it given that this will affect most people in some way it is important not only to be ready for what is to come but also to actively prepare for it so you might be wondering what has the confirmed 2024 recession really mean for the economy and more importantly for you how can you Safeguard your finances and even find growth opportunities during these economic downturns and what strategies can you employ now to not just survive but emerge stronger on the other side of the recession these are the questions that we'll be diving in today ultimately we'll tackle the most pressing question of all how to get rich using the now confirmed 2024 recession let's get straight to the point about the recent economic forecasts and consider significant indicators for example by December M 2023 the US trade deficit had grown to $ 62.2 billion which is a huge increase this figure is important because it highlights a growing imbalance in the economy with Imports exceeding exports such a deficit can have various implications for the national economy including pressure on domestic Industries another critical piece of data to consider is the increase in personal income which was reported at a modest 0.3% increase in the same period in the context of rising living costs this minimal growth in income is insufficient for many Americans indicating a potential strain on Consumer Financial Health despite these economic challenges consumer spending increased by 0.7% in December 2023 it may seem strange that spending is going up when there are signs that the economy is getting worse but this is because consumer Behavior does not always match up with the bigger economic signs the announcement of a 2024 recession by City supported by these economic indicators signals a need for strategic financial planning now the focus is on how people can do well during this expected economic downturn it's not just about getting through a rough patch financially it is also about making smart choices that could protect or even improve your financial health during uncertain times all right let's go a bit further into the economic signals and sprinkle in just some numbers to make sense of it all when city flags a recession for 2024 they're not just guessing they're putting in solid data so what's the story behind these predictions first up interest rates I'm sure you've all noticed that they're increasing according to recent reports the Federal Reserve has been raising rates rapidly with a significant increase to address inflation headon historically when rates increase borrowing becomes more expensive for both individuals and businesses as a result investment and spending tend to slow down naturally for example mortgage rates have gone through the roof reaching levels not seen in more than 10 years this has a direct effect on buying a home and spending money when people try to lower inflation there is a chance that they will do too much and send the economy into a recession now let's talk about the job market it has been strong and unemployment rates have recently dropped below below 4% which is a record low a strong job market typically signals economic health but it also means wages are pushed up as employers compete for talent workers benefit from higher wages but they can add to inflation if they are not balanced out the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported wage growth of over 5% year-over-year which is significant the balance between inflation and job growth is very close to being upset and we can already see signs of it happening consumer confidence is another critical indicator when people worry about the economy they pull back on spending the conference board's consumer confidence index has shown fluctuations with recent readings indicating a dip in confidence levels this reduction in consumer spending can hit businesses hard potentially leading to layoffs which then reduces spending even further it's a cycle that can quickly lead to economic contraction now that we have talked about how to spot the early signs of a downturn let us talk about a strategy that could save your finances just in case the worst happens ever heard of Warren Buffett exactly the financial wizard who always seems to turn anything he touches into gold particularly during economic downturns you might be wondering can I pull something off like that well Buffett himself gives us a clue with his famous advice be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful this piece of advice is all about finding invest ments with long-term value that other people might miss especially when the economy is bad back in 2008 when the financial world was pretty much in a freef fall Buffett made a move that had many scratching their heads he decided to invest a whopping $5 billion in Goldman Sachs this wasn't just throwing money around it was a calculated bet Goldman Sachs agreed to pay him 10% interest on this investment and he also got the option to buy more shares at a bargain fast forward a few years and this deal provided Buffett and his company birkshire hathway a cool profit of $3.7 billion you're probably thinking wow how do I get on on something like that basically it's about finding value where other people see hopelessness it is well known that Buffett has a lot of cash on hand he has about $157 billion ready to go why it's not because he's saving up for a rainy day this cash allows him to act quickly when he spots a bargain during downturns take his investment in apple as another example he started buying shares in 2016 and by 20120 that investment was worth over $90 billion this wasn't during a recession but it shows how Buffett's strategy of picking solid companies at good prices really paid off you might be asking is it all about timing then partly yes but it's also about knowing what you're investing in and being confident in its value over the Long Haul so so what does this mean for normal people like us we might not have billions of dollars lying around so it is not just about trying to copy everything Buffett does but his approach of looking for opportunities when others are panicking focusing on companies with strong Basics and keeping some cash ready for the right moment can guide us too you might wonder can I really make smart moves like Buffett in a recession absolutely it's about keeping your eyes open doing your homework and sometimes being a bit bold when it feels like the world is Running Scared Now that we've got a handle on the buffet way of thinking let's zoom in on exactly where you might want to look for opportunities when the economic weather forecast predicts a storm historically not all sectors and types of Investments get hit equally during recessions actually some tend to handle the storm quite well and a few can even do well so what are these areas and how can you spot them first off let's talk about consumer items I mean no matter what's happening in the world we all need to eat right during the 2008 recession when the broader Market took a nose dive dropping around 38% Consumer Staples were like sturdy ships in a storm companies like Proctor and Gamble and Coca-Cola didn't just survive they thrived in some respects why because people continue buying toothpaste and snacks recession or not these companies not only held their ground but continued to pay dividends making them a sign for investors looking for stability now you might be thinking what about Healthcare That's essential too right spot on Healthcare is another sector that tends to stand its ground during economic downturns even in 2008 while the S&P 500 was having a rough time healthc care stocks were relatively less affected with a decline of about 177% it makes sense when you think about it Medical Care isn't something you can just decide to skip because time times are tough companies like Johnson and Johnson and fizer are prime examples of this resilience and let's not forget about utilities utilities really yeah because no matter the economic climate people need their lights on and water running during the 2008 recession utility saw a smaller dip of about 29% compared to the overall Market this sector's relative stability is due to the constant demand for its services making it a safer bed so how do you spot these opportunities it's all about doing your homework look for companies Within These sectors that have solid financials strong balance sheets low debt and a track record of steady performance paying attention to Dividend yields is a good start a consistent history of dividends can be a sign of a company's Financial Health and stability all right let's discuss a topic that's probably on a lot of our minds should I be saving every penny or is it actually a good time to invest first things first saving during uncertain times is a no-brainer it's your financial safety net think of it as building a cushion that can help you handle unexpected expenses without derailing your financial stability but how much should I save a good rule of thumb is to aim for an emergency fund that covers 3 to 6 months of living expenses this gives you a buffer to lean on if things get rough like if you were to lose your job or face unexpected medical bills now here's where it gets interesting holding on to cash is smart but letting it all sit in a savings account might not be the best move over the long term especially with interest rates being what they are inflation can erode the purchasing power of your cash savings over time that's where investing comes into play but isn't investing during a recession risky sure there's always risk involved with investing but downturns can present unique opportunities prices of solid Investments might be lower giving you a chance to buy in at a discount remember our chat about sectors that tend to deal with recessions well well that's a good starting point so how do you decide when to save and when to spend on investments it boils down to your financial situation your goals and your risk tolerance if your emergency fund is solid and you've got a steady income allocating some of your Surplus cash toward Investments could be a smart move but if you're not there yet focus on building that safety net for first now that we have talked about the Rough Waters of saving versus spending let us move on to a more positive topic the eventual recovery of the economy of course it is easy to get caught up in the bad mood of a recession but history shows that bad times are followed by Good Times the real question is how do I position myself to make the most of the recovery when it comes let's break it down first off understanding that economies are cyclical is key after every storm comes comes the calm right recessions no matter how severe are followed by periods of growth and Recovery the trick is to be ready for it reflecting on the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath offers a blueprint for navigating future recoveries post 2008 the S&P 500 surged over 400% by 2020 rewarding those who were prepared the key to this was staying informed monitoring economic indicators like consumer spending and job growth to catch early recovery signs diversification also proved vital investors who spread their Investments across sectors especially in technology and Healthcare saw substantial growth consistent investing particularly through dollar cost averaging allowed many to buy low and reap rewards as the market rebounded we now know that getting ready for a recovery phase means more than just keeping your assets safe it also means making smart Investments and growing as a person so that that you can take advantage of opportunities when things get better while a recession might seem like all bad news it's actually filled with opportunities for those who know where to look remember the wealthiest people in the world see downturns as opportunities to grow their fortunes now it's time to get your strategy in place stay informed and make smart calculated decisions what are your thoughts on investing during a recession are you planning to make any moves or will you let it go let me know in the comments below and if you found this video helpful smash that like button subscribe for more insights and share this with someone who needs to hear it until next time stay Smart Stay rich and I'll see you in the 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