저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부 재정적자·인플레 우려로 10년물 금리가 4.5%를 넘어 7%까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 비트코인은 아직 주식과 동조화된 위험자산이라 독립적 안전자산이 되기엔 이르다고 평가. 단기적으로 시장은 낙관적이나, 인플레나 재정 지표가 깨지면 위험회피가 올 수 있다고 경고. 가상자산은 탈중앙화 여부에 따라 상품/증권으로 나뉘는 규제 프레임(FIT21)이 통과될 가능성이 높아졌다고 봄. 2025년 IPO·M&A는 금리 수준상 여전히 부진할 것으로 예상.
다듬은 글
no I mean look what did I say at the beginning of the year was going to be the biggest risk asset winning trade yeah it's great bitcoin's great oh my Lord I haven't seen you this Happ what made you more H happy getting to Milan and spending time with your white truffle dealer or watching Bitcoin break 90k which one was more exciting for youing you know honestly you know what I think about I actually think about all the Bitcoin I sold yeah you you know I had Bitcoin I had a bunch of Bitcoin in my funds when I managed outside Capital you know that's a I don't know a three or four billion doar mistake in growing now because my partners at the time capitulated and I wanted to be a good team member and we distributed and it was profitable but obviously I shouldn't have sold it would have made them a lot more money and then I think about like I bought some land I Tahoe it was in the Wall Street Journal I'm sure you can find it but yeah how much is that worth now probably a couple hundred million dollars maybe more rough trade rough trade but you you do have Bitcoin holding can can I ask you a question why do you say sold Bitcoin as opposed to converted Bitcoin into Dollars like when you think about Bitcoin just as as a participant do you think about Bitcoin as a dollar denominated asset that you go and buy Bitcoin and then you're eventually going to sell it turn it back into dollars and use the dollars or are you like what do you think about the purest kind of idea that Bitcoin should be the deao currency and store of value in the future and the dollar doesn't matter and we shouldn't necessarily be talking about the the value of Bitcoin in dollar denominated terms as something I'm going to eventually turn it back into it hasn't happened yet and so until it happens I think you have to view it as like a very good gold proxy but it's a largely dollar denominated asset now why do you see it going the other way like so a lot of folks thought that as a safe haven it should do well when there's a negative economic Outlook but it has traded the last couple of years kind of Opp totally correlated no it's tot it's a totally correlated asset I mean yeah there will be a point and it's probably an Our Lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value there will be that day but that day is not now and I think it's very important to see the conditions on the field as they are versus what you wish it to be and and the reason is that it allows you to risk manage more appropriately because if you don't see it then when something happens to the dollar complex good or bad or when something happens to rates good or bad or when something stimulative happens good or bad you're not going to react properly if you're in the business of managing it as a risk asset so if you're in the set it and forget it bucket and there are some people I think it's great none of these conversations matter but like most people you're probably going to be motivated to do something and I think if you're motivated to do something or you have fomo that stimulates you to do something whatever the psychology is that leads you to action it's probably important to just view things as they really are versus how you wish them to be and so I think the purists may eventually be right I think they will be right at some point in my lifetime but they're not right now and that's why these things are correlated youly the other the other thing I'll say just broadly about the market is I think that there's a tremendous amount of optimism about the economy I think that's why you see risk spread get crushed definitely yeah yeah and I think that as long as we see the kind of prognostications that the Trump Administration is putting out I think people are going to be mostly bullish I think the way that this trade turns around is when something actually breaks in terms of the inflation picture or in terms of the deficit picture and if those things look like going into 2025 that President Trump's actions are not going to be able to course correct it then I think you're going to see people go massively risk off which I think will not be great for markets obviously but right now we're not in that point and you don't think that Kure reflects that already at 4 a half% I mean that's showing some degree of inflation and concern about the deficit right it's like I think I think the tenure could be at 7% yeah what 4 and a half% mean I mean if you're if you're going to run 8% of GDP level deficits for the next four five or six years yeah you're going to have the tenure at 7 day per.
that's just mathematical right sax your thoughts on uh crypto before we get into IPOs and m&a if any yeah just on crypto the House Republicans already passed a framework for crypto regulation earlier this year it actually got 71 Democrats to to join it it was called the financial Innovation and technology for the 21st century act or fit21 and it would classify digital assets like crypto as Commodities regulated by the cftc if the blockchain they run on is is quote functional and decentralized that's the key requirement if their blockchain is functional but not decentralized then they would be considered Securities and fall under the purview of the SEC I think the the crypto industry basically wants a really clear line for knowing when they're a commodity and they want Commodities to be governed governed like all other Commodities by the cftc so that's what the Republican bill would do I think with the Republicans now winning the Senate the prospects for that bill to get enacted are now greatly improved especially because sherid Brown who used to run the Banking Committee just lost to Bernie Moreno this was a a seat in Ohio Elizabeth Warren is still object to this legislation but she's just going to have way less influence and like you said it's not clear that Gary gendler is going to be sticking around very long at the SEC so look the bottom line here is that I think that we are close to having clear rules of the road codified by Congress which is what the crypto industry's been asking for and the days of gendler terrorizing crypto companies by issuing Wells notices without clarifying what the rules are that he's in Prosecuting those days are about to be over so I think this is why the crypto markets are rallying and so to your point if it's centralized or partially centralized you're going to be a security if you're decentralized anybody can join the network no one person controls the network and I guess most people would consider that Bitcoin versus say Ripple which is partially decentralized but largely centralized and that's going to be I guess the new rules of the road in addition to that there are new rules that are being enforced that that hopefully trumping fit 21 passes right this bill is called fit 21 but I think much much higher likelihood that it or something like it now can get through the Congress Mak sense yeah and then there's also legislation that's already been enacted that's there's multiple ways multiple paths but accredited investors there's going to be a path to becoming an accredited investor with a test so that is something that is also on the docket we'll see if it happens let's talk about IPOs and m&a yum yum boys just a level set here with the audience here's the number of IPOs per year and as you can see the last three years have been some of the lowest since 2008 and 2009 the Great Recession for those of you who are old enough to remember it and if you look at VC the number of distributions have been absolutely on the floor for the past 3 years in fact if you look at the distributions from 2020 2 through 2024 those three years combined it's been around 200 billion Which is less than 2019 in total and uh with this year projected to be about 100 billion in distributions that's about 14% of the peak Zer era when in 2021 we had $710 billion in distribution here so the back room Buzz is that Donnie from Queens is going to make m&a great again couple of reasons there Sachs the wrath of Lena KH coming to an end Max heav sitting on massive amounts of cash and that cash is growing as people have laid people off and they're focused on getting fit obviously we all know the FED did another quarter point cut last week although some people maybe don't know that because it seems to have gotten lost in the election news and psychologically I think everybody's feeling very optimistic so maybe these IPOs are back on the menu shath I don't know if you saw it but Clara just filed for their IPO that's a Swedish fintech company they were kind of the pioneers and buy now pay later what are the other IPOs we could see file in 2025 datab brick stripe whiz canva plaid Rippling and air table there's a long shot that people hav been buzzing about I don't have any inside information but people have been speculating SpaceX could IPO starlink their starlink unit and if you want to get really crazy chth maybe there's a long shot that Sam Alman jumps the fence and decides he's going to take open AI public during this window that people expect to be opening what do you think chamat what's going to happen here in terms of m&a and IPOs in 2025 I think it's going to still be pretty subdued subed okay I don't I don't think that you're going to see these crazy m&a deals that I think everybody is expecting I also don't anticipate a lot of these big companies going public at least in the first half of the year and the only reason I say that is I just think that like this year and the first half of next year what's the difference the IPO Market is what the IPO Market is and if the 10e is back to you know four and a half 5% that's not a compelling strategy for some SAS company or some internet business that
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