저자: MichaelPento&MarcFaber—소속제목·설명기반,주출연자미상시'MichaelPento' · 외국인
요약 보기
연준 금리인하 기대 약화와 인플레이션 재가속으로 금 가격이 압박받는 상황. 침체 신호(인플레이션 2차 미분 하락, 실업률 상승, GDP 둔화)가 나타나면 금이 반등하며, 불황 시 연준 국채 monetize로 실질금리 하락이 금의 상승 동력이 된다고 주장. 실질금리 마이너스 환경에서 현금 대신 실물 금 보유(자산의 약 5%, 0~20% 조정)를 권고. 플래티넘은 금 대비 저평가, 장기 강세 전망. 은은 변동성이 커 금보다 선호도 낮음. 비트코인은 약세장으로 보고 혐오 표명. 미국 소비 둔화와 상위 20% 소비 의존 리스크로 주식시장 폭락·침체 가능성 경고.
다듬은 글
that you would normally think, well, well, inflation is going up. Is n't that good for gold? No. It's when we go from two or three expected rate cuts in the federal funds futures market to two or three expected rate hikes in the federal funds futures market . And that's what gold is suffering from right now.
So what you want to look for is any sign of recession, a fall in the second derivative of inflation, a rising unemployment rate, or a drop in GDP growth. And that will stop the fall in gold and make prices rise much more. We have to accept the fact that interest rates around the world remain negative in real terms.
In other words, the cost of living is rising faster than the interest you receive, especially after taxes. So in this environment, I think it's prudent to keep at least a portion of what you'd like to have in cash in gold. Global financial markets are navigating turbulent waters as shifting central bank policies and persistent inflation redefine traditional wealth preservation strategies.
Understanding these macroeconomic changes is essential to safeguarding your portfolio during changing market cycles. Michael Pento, a money manager and economic analyst, along with Mark Faber, renowned editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, highlight how monetary tightening is accelerating systemic risks in global markets.
They project that central banks' attempts to reduce their balance sheets will trigger a severe recession, bursting credit and stock market bubbles , while emergency money printing will eventually cause gold prices to skyrocket. Our independent view suggests that investors should also anticipate short-term liquidity crises where even precious metals face a temporary forced sell-off before the Fed's final pivot.
Adding predictions, if present in the transcript, allows us to synthesize this expert insight with real-time market data, providing you with a comprehensive and actionable roadmap for wealth protection. . About three weeks ago, for the first time in many years, it gave me a buy signal for gold mining companies, and that's because my model looks at the second derivative of inflation and growth.
So, let me enlighten many listeners about what the real purpose of owning gold is. It is not a hedge against inflation. It's not really a hedge against geopolitical risk . It is a hedge against the fall in real and nominal interest rates. And when does that happen? That happens most of the time during recessions .
Think about a recession, Danielle. But what happens in...? Well, the stock market usually crashes, right? Because profits are falling and that means less competition for gold. And interest rates, the Fed is cutting interest rates. That's less competition for gold. And then, what usually happens at the end of a recession is that the Federal Reserve has to monetize trillions of dollars in new Treasury debt, right?
We can get into that if we have time. That means inflation rises while nominal rates fall. And that's a rocket for gold. So, when I saw the memorandum of understanding and the possible end of the war in Iran, energy prices went from $67 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate to $120, and then dropped to $7.
I saw that as a great entry point for more physical gold, and also because the other thing that will cause a recession is inflation . Inflation remains well above target as it stands and continues to rise. It could eventually damage the bond market, where the long end of the bond market is saying, "Hey , I've had enough." Interest rates are going to rise inexorably, and that would , by definition, burst the credit bubble, which would absolutely burst the stock market bubble .
And how much can the problem of inflation actually be tackled? Because what can they do there? There are only two things they can do: they could drain the balance and increase ... well, we tried that and saw what happened, and the situation, as I said very clearly, is much worse today. So my guess, Daniela, is that if you try to reduce the balance sheet, you could incrementally raise interest rates, which, in turn, breeds the next recession, and then we fall, we go into the water.
Since 2000, it has been the best place to be . Um, I think, um, and I don't know how you or your audience view cryptocurrencies. I , I detest them. I think they have proven to be completely inept as an investment, um, and as a substitute for money. Um, so, for me, it's gold. It has outperformed the S&P 500 for the past 25 years.
So, um, it's part of my portfolio. I always recommend that everyone put 5% of their net worth into physical gold. It means that you store the gold yourself. You have access to your gold. It 's not in a bank. He's not in a golden rage. It's not in a vault somewhere and it's not in, you know, uh , what I call liquid gold paper, the ETFs.
It's their gold. And then I adjust the balance between zero and 20% in liquid gold paper depending on the second derivative of inflation and growth. And like I said, uh, a recession is coming. That's when you really want to accumulate gold. And here it is, here's the only brief warning about it. There could be a moment in my sector one, which is deflation.
That means prices are really falling. Um, not deflation, prices are going down, falling. And that's bad for gold, because everything is interconnected. The R squared reaches one and everything sells out. However, that will be very brief because, on the other side, you'll see a massive liquidation towards the Treasury complex.
The Fed will print trillions of dollars trying to prevent long-term interest rates from rising. That means real interest rates will be falling, and that's rocket fuel for gold. So, think about what happened, um , just right before that great recession. Gold did very well. Then there was a brief window of a few months where it collapsed into a liquidity crisis, and then, from March 2009 until 2011, it simply skyrocketed.
He expects something like that to happen. I like it less than gold because it has an industrial component. So, I like it, but, I like it. Gold is the only 100% monetary metal in my opinion. Silver has a much, much higher volatility profile than gold. So, um, money does really well when you have accelerating global inflation and accelerating global growth in the context of interest rates that aren't going crazy.
I really don't see that in our future. I think that especially in the United States, we spent all our tax refunds earlier this year. Well, the World Cup is over. pressure on the middle class and downwards in those spending groups. Those spending groups are really under pressure, and all that's left is the top 20%, the top quintile, which is the one that's really spending money keeping the economy going.
But if housing prices continue to stabilize and decline, and the stock market starts to fall, you'll see that you'll also lose that group and you'll definitely end up in a recession. So no, no, no, no, I'm not a Cassandra. I'm not saying they should flee to the hills. I'm just saying that there is this, there is this potential energy out there, massive and unprecedented, unprecedented potential energy for a stock market crash that will be unprecedented in intensity and duration.
Just prepare yourselves and have a plan, and well, well, prove, prove my point that I made earlier about gold loving it when nominal and real interest rates fall. What happened on February 28th? Gold was performing fantastically. I think even the mining companies were having a great start to the year, and that's when oil prices started to rise with the start of the war between Iran and the United States.
Normally one would think, "Well, inflation is rising, isn't that good for gold?" "No, it was then that we went from two or three expected rate cuts in the federal funds market to having two or three rate increases in the federal funds futures market, and that's what gold is suffering from right now ." So what you need to look for is any sign of recession, a fall in inflation based on the second derivative and a rise in the unemployment rate or a fall in GDP growth, and that will stop the fall in gold and push prices much higher.
Negative real interest rates continue to erode the purchasing power of paper money, as the rising cost of living outpaces standard bank returns. Holding fiat cash during periods of accelerated inflation guarantees depreciation of capital, making physical monetary metals the best choice for liquidity preference.
The unprecedented creation of paper money worldwide will naturally boost demand for physical gold in the face of severely limited global mining supplies . Furthermore, platinum remains exceptionally undervalued relative to historical ratios, establishing a powerful long-term bull market trajectory that could lead to platinum trading at a premium to gold.
From an analytical perspective, while it is prudent to switch to precious metals as an alternative to cash, we believe investors should maintain a diversified basket of tangible assets rather than focusing solely on gold to better capture relative value opportunities such as platinum. Now, let's get back to the interview.
I do not actively trade precious metals. I've been buying since the mid-80s and most of the gold I owned was bought at around $300 or $350 an ounce . And I remember the last time I bought gold in a significant amount was in, I think, 2015, when it had peaked in 2011. And then it fell from $1,921. That was the peak.
And then it fell to $1000 in 2015. And then I increased my position significantly. But, hey, I buy every month. I mean, the bank does it for me. So, uh, let's put it this way. We have all the assets, house, stocks, bonds, uh, raw materials and, uh, collectibles and whatever. And we also have cash. And the level of cash we hold is defined by liquidity preference, which is a term in economics.
Preference for liquidity. In other words, there are times when you like to have more liquidity and times when you like to have less. I believe we are entering a period in which the preference for liquidity increases. Now, assuming we have a greater preference for liquidity and switch to cash, the question arises: what is cash?
Singapore dollar, euros, Russian rubles, Chinese yuan or renminbi, or dollars, Australian dollars, Canadian dollars or whatever. And then we can also say, well, honestly, the cash that best maintains its purchasing power over time is gold, silver, platinum, so if you have this preference for liquidity, I think people will at least allocate a portion, not all, but a portion of their money to holding this cash in gold.
So I think demand will increase naturally. In other words, there is so much paper money in the world and the amount of gold, silver, and platinum is more limited. Therefore, I believe it is prudent to continue accumulating gold. Like I said, I wouldn't mortgage my house to buy gold. Perhaps I should.
Don't know . But my impression is that it's probably wiser to hold gold than cash. Having euros pays you very little. In Swiss francs, you get almost nothing in terms of interest. And in the United States, let's say a 3-month deposit pays you 3.5% or 3.75%. I believe that the cost of living, even in Ireland, is rising between 5 and 12% annually.
And therefore, we have to accept the fact that interest rates in the world remain negative in real terms. In other words, the cost of living is rising faster than the interest you receive, especially after taxes. So, in this environment, I think it's wise to keep at least a portion of what you'd like to have in cash in gold.
I think most of it is in gold, and I have some platinum and some silver. I believe platinum is very cheap compared to gold, and I believe we are in a bull market for platinum and that platinum will eventually sell at a premium to gold, meaning that the price of platinum will be higher than the price of gold.
But it may take some time. You know, it could happen this year or it could happen in 5 years. But I think the bull market in platinum is pretty well established. But as you pointed out in your initial comments, the fact is simply that volatility has increased. You know, there's a lot of volatility in currencies.
There is a lot of volatility in individual stocks. Not so much in the stock market in general, but certainly in individual stocks. And there is a lot of volatility in precious metals. As a buyer of precious metals, I would somewhat avoid buying at the highest point of the trading range. Upward correction, upward correction, and then they enter a bear market, then it's a downward correction again towards lower lows, and I would say that Bitcoin is in a bear market.
gold. As I said, my expectation, my assessment or projection is that this is a correction. The global economy faces a critical turning point as middle-class consumer spending encounters severe exhaustion following the complete depletion of post-pandemic savings. Overall economic growth currently depends almost entirely on the top income quintile maintaining high levels of consumption.
If real estate prices stabilize and stock market valuations collapse, this final pillar of consumer demand will crumble, pushing the broader economy into a deep structural recession. Key leading economic metrics, including the decline in the second derivative of inflation, rising unemployment rates, and contracting GDP growth, will mark the cyclical turning point for precious metals.
In our assessment, relying solely on historical central bank manuals during high debt regimes can be treacherous. However, monitoring these changes in the second derivative provides a clearer real-time signal of when tangible assets will decouple from stocks in general. Adopting a proactive approach allows investors to position themselves effectively before emergency liquidity injections ignite the next major real asset bull market. .
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