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Welcome back to the channel. Here in this video, we're going to do really two things. We're going to again give you a brief rundown of what to expect this upcoming week and I will share my thoughts and expectations around Tesla's stock. Do I think it's going to be a good week? What about the rest of August?
What do the seasonals say about August and September that you should know? Beyond that, we're also going to discuss the really big catalyst for this week besides the economic data with Trump and Putin's meeting. And uh last but not least, I do have about a 4minute long clip from Tom Lee on Friday on CNBC that I have not shared with you.
And if you have not seen it, you definitely should. He says that multiples are going higher, that we are in the process of actually seeing a rerating for stocks. If you don't know what that means, don't worry. We'll talk about it. Hit that like button. Subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already.
Check out that link down below in the description of this video for the trading community. Now, that is the best trading community hands down in the world. Like, there's there's nothing that even compares to that because of the strategy we are taking on. We're going out finding small cap AI stocks that Wall Street has not discovered yet and investing in those before Wall Street does figure them out.
Okay, that is where you get those exponential returns. Okay, like the equivalent of buying Bitcoin at $5,000 a coin and holding it until today. Like those are some of the opportunities that I think we're uh uncovering like massive opportunities. So come check it out. Link down below in the description of this video.
And I just want to say, by the way, I did not put $80,000 into BKT or whatever that stock is. I don't even know. Is that Bed? I I I honestly don't even know what the company is, but I've seen so many comments from I presume to be bots in the comment section. I did not do that. Okay. Uh if if you want to throw tickers out in the comment section and if you guys guess which one it is, which stock it is, I will uh be honest about it.
But if not, you can either just come join the trading community. But no, I did not put any money into BKKT. I do not own that stock. So, if you uh see any of those comments, they're not real. Okay, with that said, on to tonight's episode. So, just a little bit of news to get into uh here. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world, or at least in the US.
I believe it's more valuable than uh Aramco, Saudi Arabia's oil firm. But hey, it doesn't matter. Nvidia moves markets. Now Nvidia claps back against Chinese acquisitions. I it's H200 chips pose a security risk. So basically, China says or some people in China were saying that these chips could be back backed.
Okay, where like I if if a company or a hacker or a government wanted to, they could just, you know, shut down the chips whenever they want. Okay, Nvidia says that is not true. Cyber security is critically important to us and Nvidia does not have back doors in our chips that would give anyone a remote way to access or control them.
Now, this is interesting because over this weekend, really over the past like, you know, 24 hours or so, um, we have gotten news that China wants export controls on specifically semiconductors to basically go away for a trade deal. Okay, so kind of some weird headlines going on in terms of semiconductors.
Now also in the news today, US Treasury Secretary Besson expects that trade issues to be fine finalized or finished by October. Okay, so that's great. That aligns with my time frame or timeline perfectly. I think uh really second half of October through November and December are going to be very strong um months for this market, but I think it's also going to extend into 2026.
And I wouldn't be surprised if it goes throughout all of 2026. There's not a whole lot to be bearish on right now. And from a logical perspective, from my opinion, and you have a lot of bears out there. I think there's a lot of people that are on the wrong side of this market that are bearish on this market that are nervous and concerned and you're gonna have to see them, you know, kind of go back towards uh being a bull again.
Like we're nowhere close to being frothy or over um exuberant, over excited on this market. We're just not even really close to that at this point. In fact, the AII investor sentiment survey or AI investor sentiment survey as I tend to call it uh shows bullish investors at 34.9%. Bearish investors at 43.2%.
Like the bears outpaced the bulls by what almost 10% still that's that's substantial. Now neutral investors sit at 21.9%. So that's kind of on the low side. And uh again, we'll see. We have a new a new one coming out every Thursday. So we'll see if something changes. But this is the highest level of bears you have seen in uh at least the last like month and a half or so.
Again, just to quickly point out here from uh Grock, Grock 4, it uh again, is August a good month for the stock market? And it's not. Okay, August and September are are not good months historically for the markets. The long-term average monthly return for the S&P is around 0.60% and uh the average return in August is uh0.01.
01%. Um, but even 1980 through, you know, 2019, the average return was0.15%. So, it's, you know, it's really not a good month. Okay, September gets even worse though. Okay, September has an average return of 072%. Okay, so almost 1% negative which is starkly different than even October which is positive almost 1%.
November positive 1.82% and December positive 1.49%. Okay, so I'm not just, you know, on a whim, you know, saying I think the second half of October through December are going to be strong. That's normally what happens. Okay. I I do think there's again a very strong setup for that again this time around this year because people are so bearish.
I don't think we're going to have inflation by the end of this year. I think the economy is going to be holding up a lot better than most people think. I think we're going to be getting rate cuts and the big beautiful bills should help, you know, stabilize the economy and hopefully lower income consumers can start to recover and get back on their, you know, feet a little bit.
Okay, that's the thesis. But really, the end of the year tends to be very strong anyways. And I bring this up because anything can happen in August or September. In fact, Tom Lee thinks stocks like there's not much downside at all for markets. I don't really think so either. I've been in the camp of this consolidation was coming 2 to 3% downside.
We got that and now we're going really straight back up again. But even individuals like Tom Lee don't think that we're going to have like significant downside in markets. And if we don't have it in August and September, I it just seems unlikely to me that we get the economy to weaken dramatically or a huge surge in inflation or, you know, trade negotiations go completely sideways or south, right?
None of that just seems likely to me. So again, every day we go further along here in August and September, it does start to add to some of the credibility and strength of this market. That included Tesla. Okay, Tesla on Friday had a great day. I mean, it was up 2.3% in regular trading, up 0.14% in after hours.
I think tomorrow could actually be a pretty strong day. There's a lot of indications of, you know, surging demand for Tesla's autos. Okay. And uh Wall Street has been oddly bullish on Tesla since Tesla's earnings. And you're you're finally at this like technical breakout moment where you kind of broke above the trend line, you know, downward trend line on Friday.
Couldn't manage to close above it. Did get rejected. Came down a little bit. But if we can close above that like 333 level then you open the door for much larger potential upside and that is uh something that could start in this upcoming week. And again just to kind of point out some of the catalyst for this week on Friday you have retail sales.
That's going to be a very big data set. PPI on Thursday that's not as important because you have CPI on Tuesday. CPI um and retail sales are going to be very important this week. You're basically going to get a rundown of what inflation's looking like and potentially how strong the economy is in the same week.
Like that's that's going to create a fair bit of volatility in my view. Now take a listen to this clip from Tom Lee. It says here the S&P is in the process of rerating and multiples will move higher. rally have in the tank? Is it already in the early stages of rolling over? Let's ask Tom Lee. He is Fun Strat's head of research, a CNBC contributor, and he, as you see, is at Post 9.
What's up with this this market? We tired? Have we run out of gas? Are we What's What's the story? Uh, I think the market's consolidating and maybe trying to get direction from what the market does because we did gain 28% from the April lows. Um, we got to digest that. Now we're in August, like the dog days of August, where liquidity is lower.
And I think that we're still holding our breath because we're in a period where the Fed isn't going to make an interest rate decision till September. So some of the key macro is kind of on hold. So I think markets are wait and see, but I'd say that pullbacks have been shallow. Is it is it fair to say there's a more sober view from investors about stocks?
So, I mean, you you've been suggesting that this is a hated V-shaped recovery even as we continue to climb this wall of worry until most recently where we've sort of sputtered in place. That's right. Um, I mean, it's definitely the most hated. Uh, I I can attest to it from our conversations with clients.
We can see it measured in surveys like AI where there's stubborn bearishness net still. Um and then we did the rounds, Fund Strat did the rounds with a lot of our institutional clients the last two weeks and I think folks are very cautious uh which is actually good for stocks. They're cautious because of course markets have moved and our clients tend to be valuation sensitive but I think adding to their frustration is that during that April downturn many were selling their best names uh because they were trying to get defensive and then they haven't fully reloaded yet.
So I think that's why there's still room for stocks to go up. So, your clients are valuation sensitive, which makes me almost want to laugh because is anybody valuation sensitive to what's been going on in the market? We're historically well above the the averages on on the prices that you're willing to pay for stocks.
Yes. I mean what we usually tell our clients but really at the core any fundamental investor is going to use valuation as really one of their anchors is that the stock market had six stress tests in the last 5 years from COVID to the bullwhip supply chain to the fastest inflation cycle in history to the fastest Fed hikes in history then to the Trump tariffs and then of course US bombing nuclear nuclear facilities of Iran.
Those are things that could cause catastrophes for earnings, but instead the S&P earnings have actually grown. So, I think we're in the process of rerating the S&P. So, I I actually think multiples are continue drifting higher. Okay. So, let's talk about other uh so-called knocks on the on the market.
Valuation obviously one of them. They say there's too much speculation. You look at some of these stocks, meme stocks, lowquality stocks, cult stocks, and other things that have gone up a ton. Now, you're the chairman of Bitmine, which is new, right? Your your role there is new, and I'm sure there's a lot of great feeling about you and and the role and and what's taking place there.
Bit mine's up 65% this week. Okay. It's up a,000% since you became chairman, respectfully. I mean, come on. What's happening with these stocks? What's what's happening with some of this fervor that feels like it's in the market? Um, well, I think the der of IPOs over the last five or 6 years has shrunk the number of stocks in the in in the US stock market.
There's not even 5,000 listed stocks anymore. So, we these names that are IPOing are scarce and that's why they go up. Uh, Bitmine is really in a simple way, you can value it on how much Ethereum it holds. When I joined as chairman, it had $4 of Ethereum held per share. That number is well over $25 today.
So the stock isn't even trading at a high multiple of its Ethereum holdings and it's well north of 25, but we've disclosed 25 previously. So it's actually in a way less expensive now than it was a month ago. So yeah, it's obviously hard to argue against uh what Tom Lee says for markets, especially as we start to get rate cuts.
I'm not sure if he mentioned that or not. as we start to get rate cuts, then you could definitely argue for more uh multiple expansion. And really, valuation is just the total of what the marketplace is willing to pay. The Mona Lisa has basically an unlimited valuation to the right person, whereas another guy would sell it for a Subway sandwich.
Okay? It's it's all value is in the eye of the beholder. And there's definitely seen it. We've we've in general seen a uh less sensitive valuation market. Ever since even I began investing like 2018, 2017, 2016, late 2016, there was more of a valuation precedence, right? People cared more about valuations then.
And I think just one of the side effects of printing or inflating the money supply, you know, 50% in a couple of years is that valuations don't matter as much. And I think especially when you have to do with AI, valuations just really don't start to matter. Okay. And uh that that's what's actually funny about Tesla.
Tesla is cheaper now than it was in 2021 when it hit a new all-time high, right? It's it's it's f way more developed. Just there's certain differences that uh that have obviously held Tesla down like higher interest rates, like a weak consumer. And if we can start to get better on both of those fronts into the end of this year, things get pretty exciting.
August and September seasonally are rough months. I don't think it's going to be like a super rough period. I'm not I'm just not expecting much excitement or upside um in markets between now and then. Like could we go up to 6,500? Sure. Okay. Am I expecting a run to 700 on the SPY in the next two months?
No. By the end of the year though, that is still my price target on the S&P is 700. Okay. So, I am expecting a very aggressive again rally in the last 2 and 1/2 months of this year. And if we do get any weakness in August and September, I think well that's the opportunity right to you know you reap what you seow or you sew what you reap right that's what you need to be doing right now is is sewing the seeds of prosperity um you know for the future and that's what we are doing in the trading community. Come check that link out down below in the description of this video.
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