저자: TomLee · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: Tom Lee는 AI 조정이 끝나가고 있어 반도체·엔비디아·빅7·소프트웨어·암호화폐 중심 반등을 낙관하며, 테슬라는 단기 저항선 돌파 시 450달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. Tom Lee 주장: AI 공포가 버블 형성을 막고 있고, AI 발견과 생산성 향상이 계속되는 한 AI 투자 자본은 수익을 낸다고 함. 최근 조정은 건전한 조정이라는 입장. 투자 규모 근거: AI 인프라에 향후 25년간 약 30조 달러가 들 수 있으나, 미국 가계 연간 이자소득 약 7조 달러로 조달 가능하다고 봄. 모바일망·도로 건설 비용(각 약 25조 달러)과 비슷한 수준이라 과잉 투자는 아니라는 입장. 매수 근거: 공매도 전략 확산으로 조정 막바지라고 판단. 연준이 매파에서 비둘기파로 기울고 금리(10년물)가 5% 아래로 내려온 점을 호재로 봄. 남은 불안요인은 채권시장 경색과 전쟁 불확실성. 매수 대상: AI·메모리 병목, 엔비디아, 매그니피센트 7, 소프트웨어, 암호화폐에 긍정적. 금융주는 금리 하락 수혜 기대. 광범위한 경기순환주 매매에도 낙관. 역사적 비교: 1997년 시스코가 AI 유사 국면에서 50% 하락 후 회복했다고 언급. 현재는 ChatGPT 출시 3년차로 초기 단계라고 봄. 출연자 개인 전략(영상 주인공 Michael Tyler 관련 맥락): 하드웨어(반도체 장비)는 이미 밸류에이션이 충분하다고 보고, 1~3년 보유 관점에서 AI 소프트웨어, 사이버보안, 자동화·로보틱스(Zebra Technologies, UiPath 등)에 기회가 크다고 주장. 장비주 20~30% 단기 상승 가능성은 인정하나 두 배 이상은 어렵다고 봄. 포트폴리오는 5~10종목 집중 운용, 연초 이후 117% 상승 주장. 메타 등 빅테크의 사모대출·지분희석 우려로 AI 투자 지속성에 의문 제기. 시장 전망: 11월 3일 중간선거 이후 헤지 해소로 연말 랠리 가능성. 반면 이란 전쟁 재발 시 변동성 확대 가능성 경고, 연말 랠리와 급락 모두 대비 필요. 테슬라: 최근 몇 달간 S&P 평균주와 달리 상승 추세. 100일선(368.24)·50일선(363.76) 지지 확인 후 반등, 200일선 386 돌파 시 연말 450달러 가능성 언급. 옵티머스 기대치는 엘론 머스크가 낮췄으나 주가에는 2028년 기대가 선반영될 것이며 로보택시 성장도 긍정적으로 봄. 출연자는 증거금 약 8.5% 사용, 인버스·옵션 미보유. 리스크: 중간선거 결과와 무관하게 민주당 상원 68%·하원 93% 확률 언급. 전쟁 재발 시 에너지 가격과 시장 방향의 불확실성 큼.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee just made a big prediction for the market, saying that the AI stock crash is over. Now this has a big impact on Tesla shares as well. Tesla shares fell in price today . What's next for Tesla? I want to analyze the technical indicators. I want to look at the options activity that shorters are doing and some of the catalysts over the next month and a half as we wrap up 2026.
But first, listen to what Tom Lee said. Our next guest sees opportunities in this sale. Joining me now is Tom Lee from Fundstrat. He is also a contributor to CNBC. Nice to see you again. You say that fears about AI are preventing it from becoming a "bubble." Some suggest that these fears are precisely what lead to its bursting.
God, I know there will be two sides to this discussion . But the reason I argue that fears prevent a “ bubble” from forming is because we continue to see amazing discoveries made by AI. I mean, whether it's "muses" and agents, or maybe two weeks ago OpenAI solved 770 math problems. This is not the end or a late stage for AI discoveries and even for productivity gains.
So as long as we see progress there, every dollar of capital invested in AI is profitable. I think it's great that debt markets are, to some extent, curbing the uncontrolled speculative boom in AI. So I think this is actually a very healthy correction. So, are you focused more on the derivative effects, you could say, than on concerns about costs, funding, capital shortages, or all of that?
Yeah, I mean, unfortunately, AI really does cost a lot of dollars. We did a report a few weeks ago that shows that if we're going to spend $30 trillion over the next 25 years, then, first of all, there's actually plenty of investment money, because the annual interest income of American households alone is about $7 trillion.
So you know, a trillion of this can be financed just by the percentage income of Americans. But the development of the mobile network cost about 25 trillion, and road construction cost 25 trillion. I think AI is a more important infrastructure than mobile networks, and costs about the same. So I don't think there's too much money being poured into AI today .
Would you buy at this sale already? Yes. I think we're in the final stages of a sell-off because shorting the tech sector has become a common strategy, and bond yields, which were so frightening to the markets, as you know, have retreated. So we have two things that used to be obstacles: the Fed was quite hawkish, and now it's leaning towards a dovish policy.
And interest rates, which were approaching 5% and scared everyone with expectations of 6%, are now below 5% again. I think the only thing left is that the debt markets are now somewhat closed, and of course, the uncertainty because of the war. So, if you say "yes, I would buy," what exactly would you buy?
Would you limit yourself to just the biggest AI stocks on the market? Yes, Scott, I think AI, memory bottlenecks, Nvidia, and the Magic Seven are selling off because it's easy to go short right now , and of course people are worried about the credit situation. I think they are bottoming out , but I also like software and cryptocurrencies at this point.
I think I'm pretty optimistic about broad cyclical trading . And, as you know, the financial sector hasn't been growing, but rates are falling. So, I think there are many opportunities ahead. I view this as a compressed spring of strength as fundamentals remain stable. Wow, if you look at, for example, the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, we show it.
There is so much destruction in this trade. I wonder what story this graph will actually tell over the coming weeks, if not months. Scott, I think this just shows how fierce the fight around AI is today. But don't forget that in 1997, 3 years after the launch of the public internet and browsers, Cisco, which was the biggest stock at the time, had a huge 50% drop, partly because Alan Greenspan talked about irrational exuberance and then hinted at preemptive rate hikes, which is very similar to today's situation .
Cisco went through a 50% correction, fell to five, and a year later it was at 18. I think the situation is similar, because ChatGPT is actually approaching its third anniversary. I think we're still at such an early stage in AI development that people's concerns are understandable. Many have made money, and now there is active profit-taking.
What about other market segments? Yes, the market has expanded, but , you know, not in the best way. Healthcare, consumer goods, utilities— this doesn't exactly add confidence to the market. Yes, and the fact that Waste Management, as an extremely defensive group, is rising shows that the market is nervous.
I would say the optimistic argument is that it is also an argument in favor of market breadth. But I talked to Mark Newton. Does it look like we're actually touching on the level of support? Although I think we understand that the next few weeks will be a period of uncertainty before the midterm elections.
I think this is a window when investors can buy because the market is generally risk averse, but after the election, I think it will rise broadly and very confidently. I mean, yesterday or the day before yesterday we had Mark saying that underneath the surface the Qs and the S&P are stronger than they appear.
So, we'll see. Tom, thank you. Tom Lee. I agree with a lot of what Tom Lee said, but I think a lot of it is already priced in, at least until this recent semiconductor crash. Today, semiconductors are playing back a bit . Besides Mag 7, Apple, Meta, Google, Amazon, Tesla, other AI and hardware stocks generally performed well .
I think earnings will be good, and in the very short term, can equipment stocks go up 20-30%? Yes. This is quite likely. I wouldn't be surprised by that result. A bigger question I personally ask myself about my investing strategy: Are hardware stocks ready to double? Are they ready to triple? Are they set up to provide me with excess profits?
And I just don't think that's the case at this point. I think the semiconductor story is a safer bet from a numbers perspective, right? These companies are likely to beat earnings forecasts over the next few quarters. Don't be surprised by this. But are these the best areas to invest in? I do n't think so.
Today, our trading community's portfolio grew by about 1%. We have grown by 117% since the beginning of the year. I want to double this portfolio next year. I want another 100% profit next year. And I just don't think you'll see that in hardware stocks . Again , I have a very unique trading or investment strategy.
I look at planning horizons of 1 to 3 years and try to find stocks that will double, triple, 5 or 10 times. I only buy 5–10 stocks at a time. This is the maximum number of assets I prefer to have in my portfolio. I like to find the best deals, put all my eggs in one basket, and keep a close eye on those baskets.
As Stanley Druckenmiller once said , Druckenmiller. I always say Druckenmiller, it's Druckenmiller. One of the best investors in history. This is never a recommendation, this is never financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions , and believe me if you tell them, “Oh, I want to put all my money in 5 or 10 stocks that I’m very confident in .” They will call you crazy.
They will think you are out of your mind . But if you're potentially out of your mind and want to join us, . But, despite everything, let's talk about a new trend in the field of AI. And I firmly believe that we are in a transition period, right? From a numbers perspective, the shares of equipment manufacturers are valued perfectly.
So, you know, they publish great reports, and the stocks usually go down, you know? Almost completely graded to perfection. It would take some kind of huge acceleration in capital spending to get real growth, above the 20–30% that is the usual movement for a tech stock these days. For these sectors to double, grow by 70–80%, or show significant results, Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Google need to double their bets again.
Is it possible to do this? I do n't think so. Even Meta, right? Meta actually stated that private lending was not sufficient for our spending plans. We will have to enter the markets and dilute investor shares. And that will have consequences for other companies, right? In particular for the " Big Seven".
And I don't think they'll want to sacrifice their credit ratings or insider shares to keep betting on AI over and over again. And, to me, it's becoming increasingly clear that it's not how much money you spend that matters, but how efficiently you do it. Look, the next trend in AI that I think will be the main topic for the next one to three years is AI- based .
This is where, in my opinion, exponential value will be created. Firstly, because people are quite pessimistic about these areas, they have an underestimated share of assets in them. Few people are optimistic about these sectors right now. Cybersecurity—a bit like that, right? It's already shifted a little bit .
Some of the software has also picked up a bit, but I believe the opportunities in these areas are exponentially greater than what Wall Street is currently considering . When it comes to automation, it's like Zebra Technologies. This is a company that no one even knows about. Chances are, I just said “Zebra Technologies” and you’re already Googling the name.
You've probably never heard of them before , but they're going to be one of the biggest winners in AI in real-world automation, right? The scanners, the barcode scanners that are in every retail store—they're Zebra. Of course? It's like UiPath. You know, these are the companies that benefit from the actual implementation of AI, not from experiments with it, which has been largely the main driver of demand for computing power recently.
Will hardware stocks continue to fall in price ? It is possible. While I do think the returns will be good, the question is what will happen to private lending. Even Tom Lee said that private lending, you know, private capital is getting harder to get, and that's the main driver of capital spending.
If that's the case, then you'll see a lot more Meta-style capital dilution from other hyperscalers. And I do n't think that's very sustainable. And what, you know, Mark Newton said on CNBC yesterday, and what they talked about in this video—the markets are looking better under the surface right now, and that's true, right?
The percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average fell slightly today, to around 38%. This is much better than in early October, when only 24% of stocks traded above their 50-day moving average. That is, the situation has improved a little. And that's great. The midterm elections will be held on November 3.
This will potentially be a catalyst for expanded trading, which will push markets overall higher. Just because you're going to get that catalytic converter out of the way, okay? Well, regardless of who wins, you know, Democrats or Republicans, I don't think it really matters. You can see that Democrats have a 68% chance of controlling the Senate.
You know, they have about a 93% chance of controlling the House of Representatives. If you want to get $50 for free from Calshi, I really think that after the midterm elections are over on November 3rd, this will be a big catalyst, a kind of “ respite event,” right? A lot of Wall Street firms, practically all of them, will be hedging, you know, in August, September, October in the run-up to the midterm elections.
And once you reduce your risks a little bit, you can remove some of those hedges. A lot of this is n't even done by humans, right? This is done by computers. So after the midterm elections, no matter what happens, you're likely to see some hedges being removed from the markets , assuming we have good returns as well.
And this could also be a big positive catalyst for the stock's growth. Again, the big question that worries me is: What will happen with the war with Iran? You know, Tesla has performed very well in the last couple of months compared to other sectors of the market. You know, Tesla stock has been trending up since their last earnings report in early August, right?
The average stock in the S&P has been falling steadily since then. So it looks pretty good to me. Even when the broader market sold off, Tesla continued to operate and gradually grow. And I really think Tesla is a bit like a compressed spring here, if you will. And when the war with Iran finally ends, it will be a big catalyst for Tesla and the broader market to really perform better .
Over the next few weeks, if, say, a war with Iran breaks out again in mid- to late November, the question is , how big will it be? What will happen to energy markets? You might even see markets rise if the war with Iran starts again, which I know sounds crazy. But if Trump just attacks, say, nuclear facilities and leaves the oil infrastructure intact, and Iran retaliates but doesn't cause much damage, you could actually see a rally in the markets in the event of renewed war with Iran.
It all depends on what happens, how large-scale and destructive will this conflict be? And that's very difficult to predict at the moment. So I think we need to be prepared for both a year-end rally and a crash. Again , as I shared with you, I currently have about 8.5% margin in my portfolio. I don't have any options in my trading community portfolio.
I do n't sell anything short . I have about 8.5% margin. So I'm a little bit set on growth. I position myself for growth, but I am also willing to take advantage of any dips if they occur to invest new funds in the markets, in Tesla. Again, I like AI software. I like cybersecurity. I like automation and robotics, as well as a lot of the mainstream companies that have been largely forgotten as hardware stocks have dominated the markets for the last two and a half to three years.
I think a lot of these companies will use AI, become more profitable, and surprise people over the next 12, 24, 36 months. And I think Tesla is the company I would point to because it has a huge opportunity in AI that is probably not yet priced in. Elon tempered expectations for Optimus a bit at the last conference.
He seemed to be in a gray area. It seemed like Elon wasn't very confident even in containing expectations. It sounded almost like an understatement, but some very vague understatement regarding Optimus . And, you know, we'll have to see what ultimately comes out of this . But then again, stocks take things into account in advance.
So by next year, people will be thinking about 2028. And that should make Tesla stock feel really good, as should robo-taxis, right? Robotaxi will continue to evolve and become an even bigger part of Tesla's story. So I am very optimistic . Could Tesla fall a little? Of course. Your 20-day moving average is now 369.84.
Tesla shares are at 371.68. So we're a little above that level now. We have some support there. You fell below the 100-day moving average earlier today at 368.24 and the 50-day moving average at 363.76. You were pretty close to that. Today it worked as a support. So seeing this sell-off below the moving averages and closing back above them is definitely a good sign.
This 200-day moving average remains a fairly strong resistance level near the 386 mark. If it can rise above 386, Tesla shares could really soar to, say, 450. This is quite likely by the end of this year. Again , provided that complete chaos does not begin . You should expect this for now, but be prepared for chaos to break out at any moment.
With that in mind, ladies and gentlemen, share your thoughts in the comments below. Click the " like" button, the hype button, and subscribe if you haven't already . If you want to get $50 free from Calci when you sign up and top up your account, the link to it is in the description of today's episode.
And if you want to see what we invest in in our trading community— again, this is not a recommendation or financial advice, you can lose all your money—the link to that is also in the description of today's video . I wish you a wonderful continuation of the day and see you in the next issue.
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