저자: MichaelTyler/게스트TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
기관 투자자들이 2020·2023년보다 더 약세라 상승 여력이 남았다는 주장. 6141 돌파를 새 강세장 시작으로 보며, 테슬라는 희소성('다빈치')으로 높은 밸류에이션이 정당화된다고 주장. 실적 발표(7월 말) 이후 '600달러'까지 랠리 예상, 그 전에는 하락 위험이 더 크다고 봄. 연말 S&P500 700 전망. 소형주·AI·바이오 중심 유료 커뮤니티 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Everyone else says Tesla is a Da Vinci, right? Like there's no other company like Tesla in the world. So, shouldn't that scarcity be worth a premium? Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. Here in this video, I want to play an incredible clip from Tom Lee discussing two things. First and foremost, he says institutional investors are more bearish now than they were in 2020 during the COVID crash and 2023.
You know what that means, right? That means there's probably a lot of upside left for this market. That's my view as well. I will share my perspective with you a little bit here in this video. Also, he says that Tesla is there's no other Tesla. He says some very incredible things specifically about Tesla's stock that I think you all should hear.
Um, I know it made me even more bullish on Tesla, which I thought was kind of uh difficult to do. Now beyond that, I will share my perspectives on Tesla's stock this week heading into Tesla earnings. My expectations of what I think the stock will do. Um if we should expect upside, downside, nothing, just kind of sideways trading um up until earnings and then my views on what happens after earnings, which if you don't know already, I think Tesla is going to rally hard after earnings.
I actually think that this earnings is the most important earnings for Tesla in many years and that it likely starts a march towards $600 by the end of this year. Yeah, that's a double from here. Yeah, we have a lot of work to do, ladies and gentlemen. Hit that like button and subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already.
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We are finding the good ones. There is proof in this. They are already starting to work. I like AI and Bioarmas right now. I think those are really the areas that are underlooked and underappreciated. We're not looking for 7 to 10% a year. We're looking for 700% a year. Okay? Those are the kind of opportunities we are looking for.
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But now let's hear what Tom Lee said about institutional uh kind of sentiment and positioning and Tesla's stock specifically. Your institutional clients didn't believe in what was happening and that was the wall of worry that you kept using to justify no we probably have more momentum left. When you talk with these people, do they just want to curse you out but also at the same time they want to say well thanks for letting us know it's time to buy.
Yeah. Um well, compared to 2023 and 2020, the institutional universe is even more bearish. Wow. They're convinced we're late cycle. One thing to keep in mind is if you look at political affiliation in the equity market, 65% of fund managers uh voted for Biden. I did not know that. Yeah. So, but if you look at the bond market, it flips.
The bond market v historically votes Republican. Correct. So most people think Trump is a madman, right? Because they didn't vote for him. Are you saying TDS is one of the reasons why people did not buy the Yeah, we write about it a lot in our research actually. Um so it's a partisan stock market and actually uh people So these have been uncomfortable conversations that we've had all year because imagine Yeah.
because they're like, "Tom, we can't. You're telling us not to sell cuz our advice was you like don't sell." Like, even though I it was I didn't know where the bottom was. Um I did know it was BVshaped, right? But they're like, "Tom, we can't do that." You know, and then I was like, "Well, I I showed the stat.
Whenever the VIX is above 60 and then it closes below 30, 100% of the time it's been the bottom." Correct. And they're like, "Well, it's different because the Fed's not going to save you." So, everyone found a reason to actually argue for why a recession was starting. And as you know, economists went full-on recession call.
That's correct. So, if you're a equity guy, how can you go stocks are going to do V-shaped when the economist of the firm just said there's a recession? So, I think they got caught and yeah, you know, we're not having happy conversations with people. Do you do you still think this is uh so so so you've articulated now that this is the beginning of a new bull market and I imagine those institutional clients are lose their mind when you say that in a in a sort of nutshell why is that the case well it's um it's fact-based because we had a draw down of more than 20% and then we made a new high so like the weird math that like let's say a a commodity trading advisor a CTA right has is that when you have a draw down and then you make a new high that date is the start of a bull market.
Huh? So actually like in the mind of the institution now breaking 6141 was a new bull market. Wow. But the retail investor bought it at 4,800 to 6141. But the instit like the alos are going to say a new bull market started like last week. Do you think retail participation is net good? Yes. Why? Uh well, there's a big transformation in the stock market today and I actually would give credit to to X to um which is that the best companies have turned shareholders into customers.
Yeah. Right. Like I'll give you a perfect example. Micro Strategy um they've orange pill like people own Micro Strategy not because of security business but it's because Sailor getting me more Bitcoin per share. Uh, Palanteer, you know, Alex Karp is a cult of personality. I know a little bit about that one.
How about Tesla? Tesla is, you know what? It's it's a bet on Elon. So, these stocks are getting a real discount on their cost of capital because they've turned shareholders into customers. And so, I think it's actually very healthy because that's the Peter Lynch thing. Peter Lynch says, "Buy what you know." Well, these someone says like if someone if you talk to someone who owns Tesla.
Yeah. And like tell us about and they could tell you that Optimus Prime FSD literally they know the company Cole like right right they're they know what they're buying. Like the retail investor is pretty educated. So I I think like when someone says oh it's dumb retail money. It's totally not true. I think retail knows what they're doing.
So a lot of the institutional guys will say, "Well, Tesla's at a trillion, PE of 200. That person that can tell you all the ins and outs of FSD doesn't understand valuation." But your argument here is, "Well, that person probably owns a Tesla. They have experience with FSD. They can be a little bit creative with in terms of their imagination on where the company can go and valuation might not matter as much." Is that the argument from the valuation side that says a 200 PE is crazy versus the cult member who says, "I am in this car every day.
you don't understand what you're talking about. Yeah. Well, let me put this way. It's a very like cogent question you're asking, but the real second question to that is how many people fundamentally need the PE to be the basis for an investment. It's a shrinking universe. Okay, let me put it this way.
Um, do you own a luxury watch? I don't. Okay, so let's say someone has a or you have any art or something like a collectible? Probably not. No. Okay, cuz remember Tesla is a is scarce. I have a Tesla though. Yeah, but see, okay, I mean Tesla is is scarce as art because name another company like Tesla.
Like there's electric car companies and robots, but in the world today like go around the world, ask 8 billion people, is there another company like Tesla? We'll say nope, there's only one Tesla. Just one Tesla. Okay, so that's a Da Vinci. Wow. Right. Think about that. It's like there's just one Tesla.
And so then you say uh take like pretend this is a Da Vinci and like someone will say I'm only going to value this based on the value of the wood and the string and the paper and so the PE of this is actually 12. But then like a 100 people say no there's only one painting like this right and I'm going to pay $100 million.
That's the Tesla thing. Like some people will say oh Tesla's a car company but that's a small court. Everyone else says Tesla is a Da Vinci, right? Like there's no other company like Tesla in the world. So, shouldn't that scarcity be worth a premium? I have never thought of it like that, quite frankly.
I mean, that is the first time I've even heard that as a comparison, but it makes a lot of sense because we know Elon's brand is superseding a lot of the brands. I mean, I don't even know who the, you know, the CEO of Proctor and Gamble is. Correct. I mean, yeah. Who's the CEO of the biggest company that's not a tech, right?
We can't even name him. And uh another thing you could say is like that proves Tesla has a fixed supply correct of one and when it's gone there's no other Tesla they're but they they have superior manufacturing making a car is like one of the hardest things in the world to do and make an electric and they do it profitably right and then look at Elon says let's do something in space and then he's like 90% of the space business and then he says let's do some AI and then Gok is like valued 130 billion I mean kind of he knows how to create businesses and he so but there's only one Tesla in the world like Tesla company right people might say it's a commodity but I I mean so I actually watched that whole interview it was incredible I mean Tom Lee when you really start to dig his his his brain not just in a you know 3 minute or 5 minute clip on CNBC wow like this guy really does have a deep understanding of markets um from a psychological perspective that's One thing that I have also um tried to master in markets is the psychological aspect because sure you can we can all sit here and say like yeah a 200 PE is kind of ridiculous.
Okay. Um but why is it at a 200 PE? What is going to change that? Um either you know make it better or worse. What's going to actually lead to a stock moving higher? you know, it has very little to do with valuation. And that's where a lot of Wall Street is completely missing the opportunity with Tesla and with a lot of other stocks.
When you focus on valuation, you will always underperform every time in the last 30 years. Um, pretty much value investors consistently underperform. There's obviously except exceptions to that, but Tesla, okay, this upcoming week is going to be volatile. Just be on the lookout for that. I believe tomorrow is probably going to be a red day.
Uh the rest of the week, kind of up for interpretation, but it looks like Elon is dead set on establishing the American party. That's not going to be seen as favorable um for Tesla. Okay. It's going to put a lot more criticism, a lot more spotlight on Tesla because Elon is the CEO. But what I expressed in the last video is simple.
None of that matters. What really matters is Tesla earnings. What really matters is scalability on Robo Taxi. That is what matters for the investment thesis of Tesla's stock. Nothing else actually matters. Okay? Literally does not matter at all. Politics does not matter at all. like create the party or not, it's not going to change the progress of, you know, Optimus, it's not going to change the proc the progress of FSD and Roboax.
It's just not going to. Okay, now there can be scary headlines like Elon getting deported, crazy stuff. Come on, none of that's going to happen. You got to see through the noise sometimes. Now, between now and Tesla earnings, I'm actually not expecting much of a rally at all. I think there's a lot more of a downside risk than upside risk heading into Tesla earnings.
One of which is because I do think the markets are going to start to top out a little bit maybe this week or next week if we continue higher. Like, you're not going to go just straight up forever. Okay? But this is the start of a new bull market from a Wall Street perspective. I think stocks will be much higher year end than they are today.
I think the SPY is going to be at 700 by the end of the year. And I think really the last three or four months of this year, September, October, November, December, really November, December. Um, should be really good. By then, it's going to be clear we're not heading into a recession. Tariff shocks did not cause a recession.
Inflation's coming down meaningfully. Rate cuts are coming. A new Fed is coming. AI is starting to really um benefit companies. Company earnings are coming in really good. The tax bill is yes bad for the debt but stimulative. Okay, markets tend to do well when governments spend a lot of money and uh no tax on tips, no tax on overtime should actually help the consumer uh recover a bit in the lower earner, you know, cortiles and that should also help uh support and uh boost earnings.
Like all of that, I think is going to be realized by the end of um this year. just had to make sure the mic was on because the freaking cat is uh yeah playing with the cord. Uh beyond the point, I do think uh after Tesla earnings, that's when the real rally starts. That's when I think we get the guidance of, you know, 20,000 robo taxis out on the road next year, people being able to turn their cars onto the robo taxi network by the end of this year, early next year.
And I think that's where um Tesla's stock really starts to explode as Wall Street starts to realize the massive AI behemoth that Tesla is going to become. But between now and earnings, like any selloff we get to me is an opportunity. If I don't want to go out and even buy the shares, I think the options are going to present a pretty good opportunity if we do sell off into the end of, you know, this month.
roughly Tesla earnings should be around July 20th. They could be like July 22nd, something like that. Um, if we sell off into that event, I will be taking a trade on Tesla earnings. Probably a big one. But hey, if you guys want to see the trades that I make, short-term, long-term swing trades, uh, check out that link down below in the description of this video.
I should have mentioned as well like 90% of the stocks that we are buying in that trading community are not like short-term trades. So there's one that is waiting on an FDA fasttrack approval with like crazy good data. I think there's probably a 95% chance they get that. So it's a one catalyst kind of specific trade um that should be coming any day now.
But beyond that, all the other ones are like medium-term trades. 6 month, 12-month, 18month, 24-month trades that may very well turn into longerterm investments. Specifically, that one AI one could turn into a long-term investment. And I got like almost 10 10,000 shares now. So, uh yeah, some pretty big bets being placed.
I really try to put my money where my mouth is. I share my positions, you know, I screenshot everything. So, uh, yeah, come join that if you would like to. Link down below in the description of this video.
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