저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Fed의 12월 금리인하와 QT 종료가 연말 랠리 촉매라며 12월 강세를 전망. 비트코인은 연말 전 신고가는 어렵지만 1월 말까지 신고가 가능하다고 봄. S&P500 7,200~7,300 가능성 언급. 진행자 Michael Tyler는 테슬라 단기 500달러 상회(약 17% 상승)를 전망하며 Tom Lee 견해에 동조. 인플레 둔화 시 1월 금리인하 기대 증가 언급.
다듬은 글
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. In today's episode, we're going to talk about Tesla's stock, specifically um this Bitcoin situation, the margin calls that are happening, and what to expect in December. Now, Tom Lee um went on CNBC today talking about this rocky start to uh December we're seeing today and his expectations.
So, we're going to start off this video with that clip from Tom Lee and uh what could uh be coming next according to Tom Lee. Tom Lee previously said that he expected Bitcoin to hit new all-time highs by the end of this year. What is what is he saying now? What is he saying about the AI trade? All of that.
So, yeah, we have a banger for you today. Hit that like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already. check that link out down below in the description of today's episode as well if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside us. But with that said, let's get started.
And again, first and foremost, I want to start with this video here from Tom Lee where Tom Lee says why Iraqi start to December could lead to a year-end rally. Take a listen. Funstrat and chief investment officer of Fundstrat Capital as well as a CNBC contributor. He's a calm person that that doesn't get too excited or or worried, but this is not a portentious start for uh December given what what you were thinking.
Although I remember last time you were on, Tom, you said um good year end action, but rocky in the in the near term. That was about two weeks ago, and we've certainly seen that. But you still uh bullish on on crypto and stocks going into year end? Um I am I think the biggest tailwind that's going to emerge in the next couple of weeks is around the central bank.
The Fed is set to cut uh in December, but also today is the day that quantitative tightening ends. And as you know, the Fed's been shrinking its balance sheet since April 2022. It's been a pretty big headwind for market liquidity. The last time we had an end to QT, quantitative tightening, was September 2019.
And if you look back at that period, the markets really responded well. I think within 3 weeks, rallied more than 17%. So I do think the timing of QT ending, which is now essentially QE starting, and the Fed and at a time when November kind of was topsyturvy, so I think people got cautious, but now have to performance chase.
And then you have a a really typically a seasonal tailwind. So I I'm pretty bullish into December even with maybe the first day being rocky. Um so it's still all about the Fed for you because I was thinking there there is a time when a market can hit an inflection point where the reason the Fed is cutting um becomes a problem for the markets.
That's what I thought with the jobs and everything else. it there might come a time where purely Fed cuts or or the backdrop is that there is some weakness in the market in in the economy. You don't see that? Uh I mean I'd say that the shutdown put a blackout on data and I think that created a bit of anxiety because you know markets like visibility but to me the fact that claims have been behaving and that this the September jobs report kind of showed a a bit of a recovery.
I think the labor market's probably holding fine, but the Fed doesn't want that to worsen. But I think the inflation story is actually weakened a lot. So to me, the the Fed would be cutting for the right reasons, which is as they look at the next 12 months, the tariff inflation impacts are fading, but there's risk on the job market.
So I mean, I think it's cutting for the right reason, which is, you know, real rates are tightening if they don't cut. Here here's what concerned me about a couple of weeks ago, Tom, with the market's behavior, and that was watching all of the AI high-f flyers dip and drop pretty precipitously in some cases because it looked like the Fed wasn't going to cut.
That raised questions about what was happening in the private markets. And it made me start to wonder, okay, are we looking at a lot of business models that don't work if the Fed doesn't continue to cut rates? are are these and are these the business models that are are driving empowering the market right now?
That that that's the one thing that made me sit up and say, "Huh, that's a little different." Yeah. I I think there was a lot a bit of soularching, Becky, in November because we know leverage rose um and we know there was deleveraging in in some markets like crypto and we know margin debts high. And I think that there was essentially a reset in November because, you know, the market had a 6% decline, but the AI stocks and the meme names and a lot of other names fell even more.
So, I think that that position reset has been healthy. And I think many fund managers we talked to in November in the midst of all that kind of threw in the towel, thought the year, rest of the year was sort of a write-off. And and now if December is strong, there's going to be a a bit of performance chasing.
And I I think that's what you should typically expect in the final weeks of the year. I thought it was um when we saw Bitcoin sell off and sort of the the high-f flyers sell off on the notion that Pal got hawkish at that one whatever it was that one meeting and then Williams totally turned that around and and the Fed futures jumped and it became clear they're definitely cutting again and we got very little for that uh with Bitcoin should be back at 100 if it really is totally dependent on uh Fed easing and and if if it's a debasement trade, which people say it is, we didn't get much for now.
Everybody, you're sure that they're going to cut. Now, there was a time where we thought they weren't going to cut. What do we get for going back to cutting mode? Uh yeah, I mean uh Bitcoin and crypto have been disappointing because they really took it in the gut in midocctober and then kind of got hit again when you're right when the odds of a Fed cut dropped um Bitcoin fell and then now that the odds have recovered of a cut they haven't quite recovered.
I mean I think that that's still the lingering effects of that deleveraging that happened on October 10th. It's not that different than the wipeout that happened in 2022 with FTX that took eight weeks. So, we're kind of emerging from that. We're that's seven weeks in the rearview mirror. So, maybe in another week or two, I think crypto has fully washed out and that's when it starts to participate.
Yeah, wipeout's a bad word. Uh if if you could pick another one next time, Tom, we don't um you had very aggressive targets for the S&P and Bitcoin by the end of the year. I mean, you it'd be crazy to hit the the Bitcoin target, for example. I don't know what that was. Uh, but 7,000 on the S&P is still something you think that can happen this year.
Uh, yeah. I mean, 7,000 is only 2% for S&P. Um, from here, I think 5% or maybe even 10%'s possible in December. So, I think a 7200 7,300 is likely for S&P. Ask you not to do that. You're giving me a target and a time. Don't Don't It's not good for your career. Don't do that. You're going to be wrong one of these time.
But you don't care, do you? You've been right enough. Well, I'm just looking at probabilities. But you're right. We We've been wrong plenty times, Joe. So, I'm I'm okay being wrong, too. Okay. I never have been really. I don't think so. That would be a big shocker for No, that it does. It happens to all of us.
How about Bitcoin? Would you think you'd be happy with a hundred if it got back by the end of December, wouldn't you? Yeah. In fact, you know, I think it was looking good, like you said, over the weekend and then we got a a dump, a decline, sorry. Um maybe because the Bank of Japan looks hawkish, but um I I don't think the four-year cycle I don't think the Bitcoin high is in place, but you're right.
uh you know, we were too optimistic about this happening by December, but I do think Bitcoin can make an all-time high by the end of January. So, I I don't think we should we should think the highs are in place for Bitcoin or Ethereum or crypto. So, uh a lot of it's going to depend on equities recovering, which we expect it to, and that helps the animal spirits and I think a new Fed share will help.
And we have, as Becky said, when people got h worried about a hawkish Fed, that kind of hurts the discount models, the discounted cash models like AI models, but it hurts crypto models, too. So, if we have a dovish Fed, that's really a tailwind. Tom, is there a point though, Joe and I were talking about this in the last block.
Is there a point where a Fed that's too dovish scares the markets because they're worried about inflation? Uh, yes. uh the markets don't want the Fed to lose credibility and you know and the bond market will kind of protest if the Fed is too doubbish but I think when I look at Fed fund futures especially implied inflation the market the bond market's more dovish than the Fed so it looks like the Fed is behind and that's why I think cuts are necessary
are you in town where are you yeah it's pretty I was just thinking I'm actually in Tokyo otherwise I'd be visiting with you in That's magic. Yeah, otherwise you'd be here. I was wondering. So Tom Lee is still standing by his end of the year rally projection and uh assuming maybe you know that does happen.
Tesla stock again is going to be well into the 500s in uh my opinion. Now there's there's going to be the the news flow in December. we're likely to get robo taxi entering into new cities and um that's going to be huge for Tesla. But again, from the tactical perspective, there should be a chase in this market.
You know, Wall Street underperforming. Now, Bitcoin coming back a little bit um could definitely be be a good thing as well to get some of these pressures off of Bitcoin could unlock a lot of liquidity to flow in this market. Okay, this is by far the biggest drag on this market at this point. Bitcoin is back to where you were during the liberation day crash, right?
Look how crazy that is. If Bitcoin can start to recover a little bit, um that's going to help to fuel risk on assets. That's going to help to fuel Tesla stock to rally here. Now, you want to stay above the 20-day moving average and you want to get above the 50-day moving average. You're kind of penciled in between these moving averages, okay?
So you want to break to the upside. Now the MACD has recently went positive as well which is great to see. Okay. Um historically that leads to very aggressive rallies with Tesla. And generally Tesla has done well under these market conditions. Okay. Like if if someone had told you Bitcoin was going to be down like 40% from its recent high, you would say, "Yeah, Tesla's down at least 20.
It's down 10%. That to me um seems like a win and it's really just kind of in this mid-range of where you've been at since September. So Tesla's holding up remarkably well. Now we do know we have a bigger catalyst coming out with ISM services PMI on um Wednesday. We have PCE data delayed data from September coming out on Friday.
And we do have the Fed on December 10th, which is going to be a big catalyst. And then you have like the bigger data that we missed during the government shutdown, like the October jobs report coming out uh December 16th, and that's going to be a big catalyst and really help determine what happens next in markets.
And I I think one of the biggest determining factors is going to be the inflation report because we have a a decent idea of where things are in the economy and, you know, with the the labor market. We get initial jobless claims. We've been getting those for a while and they've actually come in really good.
Wall Street does not have a lot of certainty on the CPI outlook. If CPI comes down uh more than expected, that's going to boost the odds of a rate cut in January a lot for the right reasons, right? Cutting rates because inflation is coming down because inflation is not such a problem. Now, we also know this week we could be getting um the the Fed chair announcement, which betting markets are uh saying it's going to be Kevin Hasset, which would obviously be a very doubbish uh choice for the Fed, which he would uh start being the new Jerome Powell in about May of next year.
So, another catalyst to look forward to. So, you know, when I put all of these things together, I think we are set up for a year-end rally like Tom Lee says, but um we do have some catalyst upcoming that we need to be mindful of and watching for. Okay. But assuming Tom Lee is correct or partially correct, again, I think this sends Tesla well into the 500s by the end of this year.
That's a very short-term prediction. That's a 30-day out prediction, okay, for Tesla's stock to presumably rally to 500 would be upside of about 17%. That does not sound crazy to me whatsoever. Um, you know, it it could be way more explosive than that if the right conditions come about. So, let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section.
Hit the like button as well as subscribe to the channel if you have not done so already. Have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next
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