저자: MichaelTyler · 외국인
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Tom Lee의 9월 초 바닥론에 동조하며, 인플레 우려 완화·FOMC 금리인상 가능성 축소를 근거로 9월 강세 전망. 반도체/AI 하드웨어 피로 속 로보틱스·AI 소프트웨어·사이버보안으로 로테이션 주장. 테슬라를 500달러 목표로 제시하며 이란 전쟁 종결·고용지표 약세 등을 상승 조건으로 언급. 유가 상승과 이란 전쟁 장기화는 리스크로 인정.
다듬은 글
So, Tom Lee just made a big prediction about the stock market. And I don't usually release a third video, but you should see this one because if it's right, it contradicts everything that others have said today. Tom Lee believes that today, September 1, could be the " bottom" for September, which sounds a little crazy.
And he has some really good arguments, so I want to share them with you in today's video . I also want to talk about Tesla stock and what's in store for Tesla in September. If Tom Lee is right, he is right, or if uh, other people are right, we may see some volatility. I...it was okay. Let's leave this unfortunate take here.
Click the "like " button so that the YouTube algorithm can help spread this video among those who need to see it. Subscribe to the channel if you found today's video useful . If you own Tesla shares or just want to earn more, because on this channel we discuss the possibilities of the broad market. But despite everything, listen to what Tom Lee just said.
Be cautious in September, because markets are falling, oil is getting more expensive, yields are rising, and everyone is talking about seasonality. I will act contrary. I believe that everything points to September being a strong month for stocks. Why? Well, first of all, I think inflation fears will probably subside this month.
On Friday we have the labor market report . Next week is the August CPI, and then, of course, the FOMC rate decision in September. I think the sequence of these events will show that inflation is weakening, and the chances of a September hike may drop to zero. You thought that in August we could reach 7,900 or 8,000 in August alone.
Yes. Obviously, we didn't do that. So are you being overly optimistic about this market, ignoring the challenges you mentioned: inflation, higher interest rates , more expensive oil, uh, you know, more hostility in the Middle East, among other issues related to AI, data centers, etc.? Yes. And of course, uh, it makes sense to be worried about these things, but 7900-8000 to me should be a level where investors are optimistic.
Because in reality, markets peak precisely when people are optimistic. You know, these highs were set in August when people were cautious, and now people are cautious too. So, in my opinion, there is a "wall of anxiety" here, which should actually be favorable. As you know, war concerns have historically been buying opportunities, and the AI trend still has a lot of strong fundamentals, and it's interesting that there's a growing chorus of caution now.
Yes. From many angles, Scott Rubner from Citadel Securities, I talked about this a lot on "Halftime." I'll do it again because he says the risk-reward ratio has changed in the short term. And he notes: yes, the profits were great, but they are in the past. They were left behind. Retail investors continue to buy , but historically their activity declines in September.
Systematic exposure has resumed. Corporate demand will begin to fade. Periods of closed trading windows are returning. So you can't buy back shares, and after a significant drop in volatility, that's also a thing of the past. He says it's worth using growth to reduce exposure and add inexpensive protection.
He goes on to say that he does not expect a large-scale bearish reversal, but only a tactical reset. What do you think about this? Eh, these are all valid comments. Interestingly, this seems to me to describe most of the crypto trading last month. You know, volatility was low, there were fewer retail investors, and we had a rapid 30% growth.
Cryptocurrencies, believe it or not, historically outperform the S&P by about a month. So I think the situation is very similar for stocks. In fact, the bottom for stocks could even be today. But you believe that the cryptocurrency recovery could have happened for many different reasons. The Treasury Secretary's intervention in the bond market, you know, draws more attention to the $40 trillion deficit, that's the whole story.
So why do you think that what could have been a one-off moment actually has potential? Well, I think when I look at the stock market today, one of the loudest things that people talk about is inflation and the fact that inflation remains persistent. You know, we wrote about this last night, when the Fed's research shows that the core PCE index may be flawed due to, quote, " software and accessory effects," meaning flash memory.
It accounts for a third of all excess inflation this year. But most people don't experience flash memory inflation in their lives. No, but they do experience inflation, for example, on gasoline. Right. So, gasoline, unfortunately, is something the Fed can't control, but the other components of inflation seem to be normal.
Core PCE, when adjusted, is actually almost identical to CPI, which is 2.4%. So, if we get a 2.4 CPI next week , I think the market will stop worrying about inflation. Do you think people are getting too cautious too soon? I mean, JP Morgan's trading department is moving to a tactically cautious, neutral view .
Wells Fargo is also becoming more cautious about stocks. All these people are wrong. Well, as you know, they're probably not wrong, but when everyone becomes cautious, it means that the consensus has already factored in the cautious scenario. And if the economy isn't going to fall sharply, then as you know, this caution leads to stocks being able to rise on bad news.
This is the moment when the last seller has sold, and that is when the markets recover. We've talked a lot, and it seems like every time you've appeared recently, you've brought up the data center issue, which is now at a boiling point. What impact do you think this will have on the broader market as September begins?
This is a real problem because, as we said, it resonates with voters, and we see Republican governors taking this side and supporting moratoriums. Um, I just think the AI industry needs to do a better job of explaining the benefits, and I think they've gotten the message. This creates jobs, benefits users, and, of course, is strategically important for the United States.
So I think this will definitely be a major topic even during the midterm elections. But once that's behind us, I think the AI ROI story will become important and these stocks will recover. The first thing I'll say is: I agree with Tom Lee. I am a contrarian by nature. When people panic, I get greedy.
When people get greedy, I start to back off a little. Isn't that right? This is why and how we predicted the decline in AI equipment manufacturers' stocks back in early June. We, I mean, we predicted a 50% drop in Micron. And it happened , didn't it? Listen, when everyone is simultaneously becoming bearish for the same reason, nine times out of ten it's worth opening the opposite position.
And look, the fundamentals are strong. Although the economy is not in the best shape, and many ordinary people are having a hard time, the aggregate economic indicators that really worry the market are quite normal. And that's why I'm fundamentally very bullish on the stock market, especially after the midterm elections, because, as Tom Lee said, that's a real problem when policies go against market trends, right?
Um, let's look at " green" energy. I think this is a great example. Under a Democratic presidency, green energy initiatives will show phenomenal results. These are some of the best stocks to invest in. Solar energy is off the charts. OK. A Republican president comes in— the results aren't so good anymore.
So yes, these things can have an impact. Now artificial intelligence is a very controversial topic. I believe that if some states ban data centers, others will find room to build them. Ultimately, I think it's a sentiment issue, but still an issue that could shake investor confidence in the AI sector.
So if you're an index fund investor, you should be a little worried about this, right? Because the annual growth in earnings per share this year is about 25%. We will probably end the year at this level. About 25% year-over-year profit growth. Most of this is accounted for by two stocks : Nvidia and Micron.
Excluding Nvidia and Micron, S&P annualized earnings per share growth would fall to about 16%. Excluding Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, GE Vernova and Eaton, the S&P 500's growth drops to 12% per year. This is still a very strong indicator. But if people start to speak out even more against AI data centers, if it becomes a more controversial topic before the midterm elections, then yes, stocks of companies working with data centers and AI equipment will continue to fall , right?
However, this does not mean that markets will necessarily collapse. I think we've seen that over the last few months as the market has been expanding. Markets have become broader. There was some rotation. You know, our trading community has grown by 98 % since the beginning of the year. Look at the last three months.
Shares of equipment manufacturers came under heavy pressure. And our portfolio actually continues to grow. If you want to join, the link is in the pinned comment under this video. I am not a financial advisor, this is not a recommendation. You may lose money. Don't be fools. Good? We make big bets, investing with high confidence in asymmetric opportunities, wherever and whenever they appear.
That's why I would like to see a correction now. But you have to understand: after a midterm election, according to historical S&P performance since 1930, the market usually bottoms in October and then skyrockets. We have many problems now. AI hardware stocks have many problems. So, there are political issues surrounding data centers that could impact the projected earnings per share growth of the S&P 500 index.
That doesn't mean everything will be bad, just some of the companies with a large share in the index. This may put some pressure on the index. If you choose individual stocks, it doesn't matter much. There is one caveat to all this. And here's the big question: let's assume next week's inflation is in line with expectations or even lower, as Tom Lee says.
What if Friday's jobs report isn't so good? Of course, in a normal market you would say, "Yes, the Fed will not raise rates." But what is happening to oil now? Oil is already worth over $90 per barrel. This is a problem. It costs $91 per barrel. It rose another 1% during overnight trading . So, the inflation report we will get next week is for the last 30-40 days.
That was 40 days ago. On Wall Street they say, "Oh my God, we have an inflation problem because of the war with Iran." And this is the main caveat . Again, a low CPI and weak employment report would be great news for the markets right now. But if the war with Iran continues or escalates and oil prices rise, this will put some pressure on the markets and may prevent them from acting as Tom Lee predicted.
Yes, in a normal market: better inflation , worse employment— the Fed doesn't raise rates, but what if oil costs $98 by Friday? This is a problem. Although I think it's worth buying during any downturn. You want to be the buyer in this situation, right? You shouldn't give up on this. No need to be scared here.
It's better to accept it and look for opportunities, because eventually, you know, the war in Iran will pass. I think I have a unique talent. I can put myself in other people's shoes extremely well. Maybe it's because I've been through a lot, but if I were Trump now, I'd want to lower gas prices before the election and avoid a Fed rate hike because of the Iran war.
And because I follow the market very closely and understand how stock market crashes affect the economy, polls, and politics, I would like to prevent a stock market crash right before the midterm elections. This means that if I were Trump, I would want to end the conflict with Iran, make it look like I won, or just win the conflict or whatever, and be done with it.
I don't know if it will happen or not, but that's what I would do. Now, again , guys, as I've said on this channel before, there's a new deal brewing in the field of artificial intelligence. These are robotics, automation, AI software, and cybersecurity. Tesla is a major leader when it comes to robotics.
And you guys really need to understand this, because you know: over the next 3, 6, 12 months, the AI hardware trade is going to die down, but it's not going to go to zero, nothing like that. Many people take this out of context, but FOMO is over, right? Everything will depend more on performance .
You essentially have a hardware trade with very high expectations, and no sign that FOMO will return anytime soon. This is not the best situation for investing. So, Wall Street started buying software stocks . They started buying into the cybersecurity sector. They started buying Tesla stock, right?
Tesla went from $300 a share to the 360s . Okay, just in the last 24 hours or so . Tesla rose 5.5 percent yesterday. We have a Cyber Cab event on Thursday , right? We understand that. But robotics will become a big topic within AI commerce. You're moving down the spectrum a little bit. Now , Wall Street, they don't invest, do they?
Nobody looks at a stock and thinks, "Okay, what will this company be like in two years?" They look at what is happening today. And with Tesla, you know, once the old trade dies down, people ask, "Okay, what will Tesla look like in six months?" Optimus is approaching. Robo Taxi continues to expand. When interest in one direction fades, people start looking for the next one in the same ecosystem.
And the next direction in the AI ecosystem is robotics, automation, AI software, and cybersecurity, which I would also like to focus on. You need companies that are implementing AI into the real world right now, right ? Because if you're going to justify the AI investments that are happening now, it can't just be in the digital world, it has to be something in the real world, like robotics, humanoids, you know, like Zebra Technologies, right?
This is another company I like right now, even though I only own five shares of it. Me, I only have about $1,800 worth of stock. Hmm, I'm waiting for a better opportunity to buy. Let's see if that happens. But, you know, a company like Tesla is poised to show phenomenal results if Tomley is right and the markets don't crash.
If inflation does come down, or if Friday's jobs report is weak , or if the war with Iran ends. If the war with Iran ends, about 80% of the market's problems will be solved, and Tesla shares will skyrocket. Today you, uh, saw some resistance at the 50-day moving average for Tesla. If the war with Iran ends in September, the jobs report isn't too strong, or the CPI is better than expected, which is the baseline forecast at the moment, Tesla will be a $500 stock in a very short time, right?
Simply because everyone has an underestimated share of Tesla in their portfolios. Nobody, like the transition from AI hardware to real AI applications has started, you know, AI software and cybersecurity, but there's not a lot of investment there, most of the people you see on CNBC right now or, you know, you talk to, they still like to trade hardware.
Wall Street is bad at being first, unlike what we do in our trading community. The link is in the pinned comment below in today's episode description if you want to join us. My only goal, about 90% of the work I do outside of making these videos every day, is trying to find the next opportunity. I don't care what happens today.
This is already included in the price. I want to find the next opportunity. I want to find where the crowd is going, and I want to be early, I want to be first. You know, I bought Nebus at about $25 a share. Okay. Um, Wall Street didn't talk about it until the price hit 70, right? We want to be on time.
And I think with Tesla, yeah, everyone knows what Tesla is and what they do, but you're very early into the next big supercycle for Tesla. So, you know, if all goes well, Tesla will be a $500 stock by the end of September . I think next year there will be thousands of shares. If the war in Iran doesn't end, if the situation worsens, if oil prices rise, or if inflation turns out to be high next week or the jobs report is strong on Friday, it's inevitable.
We are facing a certain correction. But then again, the NASDAQ has already fallen about half way through, well, half of the correction. It has already sunk by about 5% . It is not necessary to wait for another 10% correction. And NASDAQ already had a correction of 11-12% from June 1 to the end of July .
I think many people forget that the correction has already happened. It is still 5% below its historical highs. This may be enough. But if the war with Iran does not end and oil prices continue to rise , it will be difficult to expect markets to grow in such conditions. Therefore, I think it's worth being careful now.
I think you should use this volatility as, well, fuel for your investment journey , right? We wouldn't have had 98% of our year-to-date gains in the trading community if we hadn't taken advantage of the SaaS apocalypse fears, the irrational fear that gripped software stocks in March and April . It was a huge opportunity , and if we get another correction now in September, it will be another huge opportunity , and you need to make sure you buy the right stocks at the right time.
And again, that's what we do. If you want to join us, the link is below in the pinned comment. But I consider Tesla one of the best options. You know, if Tesla stock was worth $250, wow, what an opportunity that would be. You know, I think that would allow you to achieve incredible success in the coming months and years.
This would be an opportunity you would regret losing. On that note , ladies and gentlemen, share your thoughts in the comments below. Click the "like" button and subscribe to the channel. Again, the link to the trading community is in the pinned comment on today's video . Have a nice day, and see you in the next video.
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