저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
S&P500은 역사적 고점 근처지만 AI 비용·에너지·중동/우크라 전쟁 불안으로 심리가 나쁨. 반도체 장비주 차익실현 과정에서 AI 소프트웨어·매그7·암호화폐에 기회가 있다고 봄. 블록체인 금융 인프라 확산(블랙록·JP모건 스테이블코인)을 비트코인 상승 동력으로 제시. 진행자 Michael Tyler는 하드웨어(반도체) 대신 AI 수혜 소프트웨어·사이버보안·로보틱스를 선호하며, 중동 전쟁 재개 시 시장 악화 가능성을 언급. 테슬라는 로보택시·옵티머스 전망에 따라 내년 움직임이 달라진다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Tesla shares fell about 2.5 percent today. I'll share my thoughts on Tesla and what might be next, as well as what Tom Lee just said about the stock market and the AI stock crash . And also Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, and a CNBC contributor. And Ben Emmons, founder of Fed Watch Advisors.
Very happy to see you both here. Tom, I'll start with you. How would you describe this market right now, especially given that the S&P has been pretty range bound over the past few months? Good morning. You know , the S&P is actually holding up very well. It is very close to historical highs, but as you know, there is incredible turbulence going on inside as the market tries to adapt to this “wall of anxiety” .
The costs of AI, how it's going to be funded, you know, even the growth rates of these advanced models. On top of that, energy, which is very important but very uncertain because not only are prices high, but there are two wars, and both, in Ukraine and in Iran, seem to be escalating. And I think this is a time when there is a lot of criticism about the ratings.
Therefore, I believe that investor sentiment is negative . I know it sounds very scary, but for me, because the fundamentals are so strong, it's like a compressed spring. I think stocks will eventually overcome this, but we are in a period of great concern right now. Mm. Going back to the " compressed spring," Tom, where do you see the opportunities now, especially as the focus has shifted to this internal rotation in the S& P in recent trading sessions?
So, if you look at stocks, semiconductor stocks compared to the equilibrium S&P, there is a certain inverse correlation. So does it really need to come together and merge a little more to move up and see this spring straighten out? Well, I think the opportunities lie in what investors have been getting rid of.
You know, I've seen reports from brokers that hedge fund positions in AI have almost completely— their excess has been almost completely eliminated. I think this, first of all, explains a lot of the pressure from sellers. But I also think that's where the opportunity lies, because the growth, you know, the noticeable growth, the sources of S&P's earnings, are actually coming from AI and all the bottlenecks, and the valuations there are still quite reasonable.
So, in my opinion, despite the fact that people are somewhat afraid of this, I would rather invest in AI semiconductors, "Magnet Seven", software - these are AI-derived companies, and also in cryptocurrency, which has also been hit by this sell-off. Tom, I want to hear your thoughts on this . And you also mentioned the crypt.
So I want to get your thoughts on that as well, because of course we've seen a very big rally there, and I'm curious what you think is driving it. Is it the implementation of financial infrastructure and convergence with AI, or is it a macroeconomic story given geopolitical and political tensions? We were just talking about France with Steve Sedgwick a few minutes ago, and how that's affecting asset classes.
Morgan, all of this is a tailwind for crypto. Perhaps the only thing that is not so is that the Fed is not, so to speak, "dovey" and does not pursue a policy of easy money, but you know, the stability of crypto is impressive in such conditions . But I think the biggest and probably most significant driver for crypto right now is something Wall Street is recognizing: the future financial rails will be built on blockchains.
You know, regardless of the future cybersecurity threats from AI to the entire financial infrastructure. BlackRock even explicitly states that they want to create collateral using tokenized products on the blockchain. You know, Vlad Tenev from Robinhood says he thinks the entire financial system will be built on blockchains.
And today, JP Morgan announced that it is building a stablecoin on Ethereum. So, to me, this just indicates that Wall Street recognizes the efficiency of calculations that blockchain provides, as well as the security. And it's actually a huge opportunity , because essentially half of everything that happens in the world, every economic transaction, everything in the real world is now a financial transaction.
Of course, this is a big opportunity for blockchain. Mhm. Gentlemen, what a great way to start this hour. I appreciate it. So I will be completely honest, open, and transparent with you. I don't like hardware manufacturer stocks. I've disliked hardware manufacturer stocks for a long time. I think this development of AI, while it can provide opportunities, and I think those opportunities will change and fluctuate even in the hardware realm.
You know, there will be certain moments, like six months ago photonics was, well, the main topic, and these stocks just went crazy. A year ago, eighteen months ago, it was “neo- clouds” and data centers . You know, I was buying Nebius at $27 a share, $25, $27 a share. Today the stock is worth around 200.
I think that trading in " iron" will have its moments, but I do n't like it. I don't think that's where the opportunity lies in this market. I really believe that the opportunities are in the companies further down the chain. Tom Lee mentioned software. I think software is one of those areas. I think cybersecurity is another one.
Robotics and automation are other examples. However, I believe that the average stock in the market…some will do better, but most companies will benefit significantly from AI. Now the concerns we face are very real. I mean the situation between "neo-clouds" and, in particular, CoreWeave's debt problems, right?
And what's happening with their unsecured bonds is an obvious problem. A 15% return is definitely uncomfortable, right? And what we have with Meta: they are actually saying that they will dilute capital a lot, that is, they will sell a lot of shares. And the markets will never want to hear about it.
Stocks will never be… no CEO will come out and say, “Yeah, we’re going to really dilute you.” And for the shares to rise after that. And following Jensen Huang's comments today about the lack of capital, this indicates that more companies are likely to choose the path of diluting investor stakes. And it's just, it's just not the best situation.
Ultimately, I think there is an over- concentration in the stocks of AI hardware manufacturers and very, very high expectations, right? So, I think the " hardware" trade will have its moments, and someday I might be optimistic about these stocks again. But I really believe we are entering a new era of AI commerce: the real monetization of AI, where companies use it to become more profitable and have stronger businesses.
These are things I've been talking about for a long time, but the fear about "iron" at this point is probably exaggerated. Fears about capital spending on AI are probably overblown. I think the earnings reports will be good. I think the situation is probably not as bad as many people think. Next week you'll hear reports from Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.
I'm sure they'll all spend more . But how exactly will these expenses be incurred ? Will there be significant share dilution? Honestly, after what Meta said, it's probably already factored into the price. You are probably already expecting the shares of these companies to be diluted to fund the AI development phase.
Ultimately, over time, it will become clear which of the “ Big Seven” will be able to best monetize this AI. These are low-level AI capabilities, not those companies that benefit from the costs, but those that benefit on a long-term basis from using AI and selling AI products. These are again companies involved in AI software, cybersecurity, automation, and robotics.
These are the areas that I think could be the next big trend in AI. From a broader market perspective, important ones include Treasury bonds, energy markets, midterm elections, and the Iran war situation. It seems that war with Iran could resume at any moment. We don't know for sure , but we have to be prepared for it.
If next week's financial results are disappointing and the war with Iran resumes—perhaps after the midterm elections or right before them—we don't know for sure. This would probably be the worst-case scenario. I actually think this is pretty cool, because it's not helpful at all when the S&P and Nasdaq are literally dependent on one cyclical AI deal.
So, ultimately, I think it's a healthy phenomenon. Today there was a stock rotation. Most S&P companies actually performed quite well, except for AI equipment manufacturers and some companies from the “Big Seven”. I also believe that the AI bubble will never burst. I don't see any epic collapse for Nvidia or for key AI stocks .
There will be a rotation, right? There will be periods when semiconductors will be in favor and when they will not. You know, there will also be times when memory will be in favor, and times when it won't. We just have to understand it and be able to position ourselves to make money from it. I think we...
you know, I wouldn't agree with what Tom Lee said. I think we are entering a period when the shares of equipment manufacturers may lose their attractiveness, and the leaders of the AI market, on the contrary, may gain it. I think we are already observing this process, and I think it is a healthy phenomenon.
But are we in for a market correction or collapse in the coming days, weeks, or months? This, you know, depends on the war with Iran. It depends on how strong, well , the fear about AI hardware becomes. If a war with Iran breaks out , the domestic market will suffer greatly again. If the AI sector continues to weaken, the indices will fall, but domestic market indicators may, on the contrary, demonstrate success, as they did today.
Today, my trading community's portfolio dropped by about 1%. Since the beginning of the year, we have an increase of about 113%. I'm looking for asymmetric profit opportunities, you know? I'm looking for promotions to, well, just be among the first to take advantage of the opportunity. I want to find opportunities before Wall Street and invest heavily in them .
I don't believe in diversification. I believe in having five to ten different, very reliable assets. Put all your eggs in one basket and watch that basket closely, as Stanley Druckenmiller once said. This is my strategy, you know? This is exactly what I love to do. And I believe that at such a moment this strategy can work very effectively.
Again , this is not a recommendation, I am not a financial advisor, do not make investments based on what you hear or see from others. You will definitely lose money, but I also don't think this is a market where you should take excessive risks, right? My portfolio has about 8.5% margin. Even if the portfolio fell by 50%, I would have about 15-16% margin.
I feel comfortable with this, you know? I wouldn't want to have 30%, 40%, or 50% margin right now, because if the market crashes or does n't go according to plan, it's not worth having excessive leverage on the downside. I also have no options in this portfolio, 0%, no calls or puts , just stocks, and I'm not losing anything.
So, from my perspective, I'm moderately optimistic, you know? I'm not very optimistic. I'm more of a moderate optimist. You can hear what I say and draw whatever conclusions you want, but look: I'm optimistic, right? I am focused on growth, but I am also looking at 2027 . I don't even care what happens to the markets over the next month and a half , you know?
I'm only concerned with what next year will look like, how to prepare for it, and how to make money next year. If you want to trade and invest with us, see our portfolio and what we're currently betting on for next year—again, this is not a recommendation, not financial advice—the link is at the bottom of today's episode description.
But, especially after Tesla's earnings report, I think we're in a wait-and-see mode now, right? Part of Tesla's business—robot taxis, cars, energy—all of it looks very good. The capital expenditure numbers looked very good, the free cash flow numbers looked just incredibly good. In the short term, this could help Tesla shares perform well , but next year will increasingly depend on how the scaling of robotaxi looks: how many cities will we reach next year?
And what about Optimus? Elon somewhat tempered expectations for Optimus last night during a conference call, and that could hold Tesla stock back a bit next year. I think it's too early to make any drastic adjustments. But if Optimus is delayed, or doesn't come to market as quickly as we thought, or Optimus training takes longer than we expected, it will be a headwind for Tesla stock and potentially reduce the upside potential for next year.
We're in such a moment of fear right now with the midterm elections, with everything that's happening with artificial intelligence, the war in Iran, the fear that you see even in Treasury bonds—we're just in such a state of anxiety right now. And while Tesla shares are down about 3% today, the company has far outperformed the rest of the “Mag 7,” or AI hardware makers, and I think that’s a good sign for the future.
Again, Tesla fits neatly into the robotics theme, which I believe will be one of the next big market drivers. You know, these are some of those robotics companies like Tesla. Tell me, where else are there more opportunities than in humanoids? You won't find it. The question is, what does the timeframe look like to actually achieve this?
And at this point it's an open question. To which we don't have all the answers. So, you know, I'm very optimistic about Tesla . I don't know exactly how this will affect Tesla stock over the next 12 months. It really depends on what Optimus and the robotaxi look like. But in the near term, will we get through this midterm election moment?
Will we overcome some of the panic around AI? I think so . Will markets crash? I don't think so, but is there a possibility? Yes, and that's why I prepare my portfolio for any events. Let me know what you think about it in the comments section below. Click the " like" button and subscribe to the channel.
If you want to get $50 for free on Cal Shi, the link is in the description of today's episode, and also, if you want to join the trading community, the link for that is in the description as well. I wish you a wonderful continuation of the day, see you in the next video.
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